Toledo routs Central Connecticut 63-10

Team pages: Central Connecticut · Toledo

Central Connecticut0-210
Toledo1-163Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio · Crowd 18,435ESPN+

Toledo routed Central Connecticut 63-10.

We had Toledo favored. It won.

Next: Central Connecticut lost to Montana State 35-30, Sat Sep 19

Next: Toledo beat Temple 49-48, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Toledo a 95% chance, and the closing betting line (Toledo was a 36.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

85-yard TD passToledo · Q1 0:52Blocked punt TDToledo · Q2 1:23Pick-sixCentral Connecticut · Q4 12:40
FinalToledo 63-10 Central ConnecticutToledo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoWon63-10Scores85-yard TD passBlocked punt TDPick-six
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoWon63-10Scores85-yard TD passBlocked punt TDPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoLowest 0%Lost10-63Scores85-yard TD passBlocked punt TDPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoLowest 0%Lost10-63Scores85-yard TD passBlocked punt TDPick-six

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Toledo’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Toledo -36.5), at 98% for Toledo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Toledo scored on 8 of its 13 drives; Central Connecticut on 1 of its 14.

Toledo’s drives are teal, Central Connecticut’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Central Connecticut: Field goal, from 8 yards out to 8Field goalToledo: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48PuntToledo: Turned over on downs, from 89 yards out to 27DownsCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 73 yards out to 47PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Interception, from 76 yards out to 68InterceptionQ2Toledo: Touchdown, from 27 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 32Missed FGToledo: Punt, from 68 yards out to 56PuntCentral Connecticut: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 82 yards out to 81Punt TDCentral Connecticut: End of half, from 75 yards out to 74End of halfQ3Central Connecticut: Punt, from 80 yards out to 83PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 93 yards out to 84PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntQ4Toledo: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 89 yards out to 90Interception TDToledo: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48PuntCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 85 yards out to 85PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 84 yards out to 80PuntToledo: Turned over on downs, from 56 yards out to 72Downs

Box score

Toledo 63, Central Connecticut 10

Toledo covered −36.5 by 16.5. The total, 73, went over 52.5.

Central ConnecticutToledoTotal yardsCentral Connecticut 139Toledo 569139569Passing yardsCentral Connecticut 66Toledo 31366313Rushing yardsCentral Connecticut 73Toledo 25673256First downsCentral Connecticut 7Toledo 28728TurnoversCentral Connecticut 1Toledo 212Time of possessionCentral Connecticut 25:57Toledo 34:0325:5734:03
Team totalsCentral ConnecticutToledo
Total yards139569
Passing13 of 33, 66 yds18 of 31, 313 yds
Rushing25 for 73 yds45 for 256 yds
First downs728
Third down4 of 168 of 13
Fourth down0 of 01 of 3
Turnovers12
Penalties5 for 23 yds5 for 45 yds
Time of possession25:5734:03

Central Connecticut leaders

  • Passing Conner Kenyon 8 of 15, 40 yds
  • Rushing Brett Griffis 5 for 31 yds; Isaac Stopke 8 for 25 yds
  • Receiving Damani Williams 4 for 21 yds; Arturo Johnson Jr. 2 for 19 yds

Toledo leaders

  • Passing John Alan Richter 15 of 24, 252 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing CJ Miller 9 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Khamoni Robinson 3 for 49 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Rico Bond 4 for 135 yds, 1 TD; Bryson Hammer 3 for 57 yds

No rain through the game

79° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 59° and 76°.

September game-day temperatures at Glass Bowl

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredCentral Connecticut favored100%Win chanceToledoRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Toledo favoredCentral Connecticut favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left3:33 p.m.
Central Connecticut 0, Toledo 0 · Toledo 98% to win
no rain · 79°
Griffis incomplete to Williams
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lambertville airport, 5.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Central Connecticut · 8-5

Rated 191st in our preseason ratings, 189th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 19-27 @ Rhode Island #86 of 667

lost by 8 as a 19.5-point underdog

W 35-28 vs Mercyhurst #230 of 667

won by 7 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 33-38 @ Duquesne #171 of 667

lost by 5 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 40-10 vs Stonehill #249 of 667

won by 30 as a 10-point favorite

W 10-7 vs Long Island University #201 of 667

won by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 24-17 @ Wagner #258 of 667

W 24-12 @ Robert Morris #252 of 667

won by 12 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 42-35 vs Sacred Heart #224 of 667

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 28-35 vs Dartmouth #200 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 14-16 @ Merrimack #199 of 667

lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 31-7 vs Saint Francis #229 of 667

won by 24 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 34-7 vs American International #389 of 667

L 13-59 @ UConn #73 of 667

lost by 46 as a 29.5-point underdog

Central Connecticut lost 13-59 at UConn. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 10%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Toledo · 8-5

Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 50th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 22-27 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 5 as an 11.5-point underdog

Toledo lost 22-27 vs Louisville. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 22%.

W 21-3 @ Central Michigan #103 of 667

won by 18 as a 10.5-point favorite

Toledo won 21-3 at Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 71%, low 35%, high better than 99%.

W 38-9 vs Ball State #203 of 667

won by 29 as a 28.5-point favorite

Toledo won 38-9 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 97%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

W 24-3 @ Miami (OH) #92 of 667

won by 21 as a 6.5-point favorite

Toledo won 24-3 at Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 56%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

W 42-3 vs Northern Illinois #204 of 667

won by 39 as a 15.5-point favorite

Toledo won 42-3 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 96%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

L 7-28 @ Washington State #70 of 667

lost by 21 as a 1.5-point favorite

Toledo lost 7-28 at Washington State. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 58%.

W 45-10 vs Kent State #212 of 667

won by 35 as a 25.5-point favorite

Toledo won 45-10 vs Kent State. Chance to win started at 90%, low 73%, high better than 99%.

L 23-28 @ Bowling Green #102 of 667

lost by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite

Toledo lost 23-28 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 99%.

W 45-3 vs Akron #170 of 667

won by 42 as a 22.5-point favorite

Toledo won 45-3 vs Akron. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

L 13-14 @ Western Michigan #133 of 667

lost by 1 as an 11.5-point favorite

Toledo lost 13-14 at Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 72%, low 8%, high 97%.

W 60-0 vs Morgan State #211 of 667

won by 60 as a 33.5-point favorite

Toledo won 60-0 vs Morgan State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 45-21 vs Western Kentucky #91 of 667

won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite

Toledo won 45-21 vs Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 76%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

L 16-24 @ Kentucky #30 of 667

lost by 8 as a 9.5-point underdog

Toledo lost 16-24 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 21%, low under 1%, high 23%.

Week by week

Toledo

  • Wk 1Lat Michigan State20-30

Central Connecticut

  • Wk 1Lat South Dakota20-59

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Toledo’s chances here.

50-50Model 95% · Line 100%Central ConnecticutToledo

Toledo favored by 36.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Toledo by 36.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Toledo.

opened −33.5now −36.5

The total fell 3 points.

opened 55.5now 52.5

Spread: −33.5 → −36.5 · Total: 55.5 → 52.5

The books’ cut: 2.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 83° at kickoff.

Central Connecticut at Toledo · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Glass Bowl, Toledo

  • 83°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 80weather score, Mixed
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Glass Bowl that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 80 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • noon: 85, Mixed
  • 1 pm: 84, Mixed
  • 2 pm: 82, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 80, Mixed (this game)
  • 6 pm: 93, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Toledo is worth +5.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.

74% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (31-11 home, 23-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.9 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 560 miles to get here.

Where next