Montana State beats Central Connecticut 35-30

Team pages: Central Connecticut · Montana State

Central Connecticut0-330
Montana State4-035Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, Mont. · Crowd 21,557ESPN+

Montana State beat Central Connecticut 35-30.

We had Montana State favored. It won.

Next: Central Connecticut beat Wagner 45-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: Montana State beat Northern Arizona 28-14, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana State a 96% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana State was a 41.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Favored the whole way: Montana State never fell below 75%.

Central Connecticut led by 14 but, as a 41.5-point underdog, never had better than a 24% chance.

21 unansweredMontana State · Q4 12:38
FinalMontana State 35-30 Central ConnecticutMontana State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfMontana StateWon35-301−11Scores21 unanswered
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfMontana StateWon35-301Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfMontana StateLost30-351+11Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfMontana StateLost30-351Scores21 unanswered

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q3 12:28FumbleJones fumbles, Mitchell returns it for a TD, Central Connecticut leads 21-7Montana State 87% → 76% (−11)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q3 12:28FumbleJones fumbles, Mitchell returns it for a TD, Central Connecticut leads 21-7Central Connecticut 13% → 24% (+11)
Montana State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Montana State -41.5), at 99% for Montana State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Montana State scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Central Connecticut on 4 of its 10.

Montana State’s drives are teal, Central Connecticut’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Montana State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 53PuntCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 97 yards out to 71PuntMontana State: Punt, from 74 yards out to 71PuntCentral Connecticut: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Montana State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 17FumbleMontana State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 53PuntCentral Connecticut: End of half, from 95 yards out to 92End of halfQ3Central Connecticut: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: Fumble returned for a touchdown, from 58 yards out to 58Fumble TDMontana State: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntMontana State: Interception, from 67 yards out to 11InterceptionCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 80 yards out to 81PuntMontana State: Touchdown, from 54 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntQ4Montana State: Touchdown, from 39 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 28Field goalMontana State: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Connecticut: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: End of game, from 40 yards out to 23End of game

From Central Connecticut’s side

Central Connecticut’s best moment: Jones fumbles, Mitchell returns it for a TD, Central Connecticut leads 21-7 (Q3 12:28). It lifted Central Connecticut’s win chance by 11 points.

Box score

Montana State 35, Central Connecticut 30

Central Connecticut covered +41.5 by 36.5. The total, 65, went over 59.5.

Central Connecticut leaders

  • Passing Brett Griffis 18 of 30, 228 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Davon Smith Jr. 19 for 92 yds; Brett Griffis 15 for 43 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Eli Daniels 2 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Damani Williams 6 for 50 yds, 1 TD

Montana State leaders

  • Passing Justin Lamson 23 of 28, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Adam Jones 18 for 122 yds, 2 TD; Justin Lamson 8 for 32 yds
  • Receiving Adam Jones 6 for 92 yds; Dane Steel 4 for 62 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Central Connecticut · 0-2

Rated 191st in our preseason ratings, 191st now.

Two straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 10-63 @ Toledo #49 of 668

lost by 53 as a 36.5-point underdog

Central Connecticut lost 10-63 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 20-59 @ South Dakota #125 of 668

lost by 39 as a 20.5-point underdog

Last three games

Montana State · 3-0

Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 75th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 20-7 @ Nevada #176 of 668

won by 13 as a 4.5-point favorite

Montana State won 20-7 at Nevada. Chance to win started at 63%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 51-24 vs Butler #222 of 668

won by 27 as a 45.5-point favorite

Montana State won 51-24 vs Butler. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 54-0 @ Utah Tech #224 of 668

won by 54 as a 32.5-point favorite

Montana State won 54-0 at Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 96%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Montana State

Wk 1: W 54-0 at Utah Tech▲54Utah TechWk 1: W 51-24 vs Butler▲27ButlerWk 2: W 20-7 at Nevada▲13Nevada
  • Wk 1Wat Utah Tech54-0
  • Wk 1Wvs Butler51-24
  • Wk 2Wat Nevada20-7

Central Connecticut

Wk 1: L 20-59 at South Dakota▼39South DakotaWk 2: L 10-63 at Toledo▼53Toledo
  • Wk 1Lat South Dakota20-59
  • Wk 2Lat Toledo10-63

Power rating by week

Montana State is rated 7.6 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-5-10Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2Montana StateCentral Connecticut

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Montana State’s chances here.

50-50Model 96% · Line 100%Central ConnecticutMontana State

Montana State favored by 41.5 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

Montana State by 41.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Montana State.

opened −38.5now −41.5

Spread: −38.5 → −41.5

Home field

Montana State is worth +10.3 points (±15.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

33% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 4-5 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,946 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,914 miles to get here.

Where next