The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 75%
Win out 64% · expect 2.6 of 3 more wins
Montana State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Idaho State 82%, Northern Colorado 98%, Montana 80%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Justin Lamson 1,497 · Rushing Adam Jones 582 · Receiving Carter Dahlke 655 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Utah Tech | W 54-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Lamson 260 · Rush Jones 35 · Rec Steel 174 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Butler | W 51-24 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Lamson 239 · Rush Jones 77 · Rec Dowler 97 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Nevada | W 20-7 134 Loud | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Lamson 179 · Rush Jones 86 · Rec Dowler 44 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Central Connecticut | W 35-30 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Lamson 239 · Rush Jones 122 · Rec Jones 92 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Northern Arizona | W 28-14 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Duchien 204 · Rush Coon 199 · Rec Dahlke 117 |
| 5 | Oct 2 | @Idaho | L 34-35 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Duchien 249 · Rush Duchien 92 · Rec Dahlke 126 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Eastern Washington | W 56-20 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Lamson 171 · Rush Jones 84 · Rec Dahlke 112 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Weber State | W 38-33 | 7-1 | 4-1 | Pass Lamson 232 · Rush White 125 · Rec Steel 74 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Cal Poly | W 61-7 | 8-1 | 5-1 | Pass Lamson 177 · Rush White 69 · Rec Dahlke 103 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Idaho State | 6 pm ET82% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Northern Colorado | 2 pm ET98% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Montana | 2 pm ET80% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Montana State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Cal Poly | W 61-7 | — | — | — | +0.571 | 64.8% | 1.20 | Best success rate |
| Oct 24 | Weber State | W 38-33 | — | — | — | +0.199 | 52.3% | 1.12 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Eastern Washington | W 56-20 | — | — | — | +0.633 | 46.8% | 1.80 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 2 | @Idaho | L 34-35 | — | — | — | +0.209 | 49.3% | 1.01 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | Northern Arizona | W 28-14 | — | — | — | +0.287 | 61.1% | 0.97 | |
| Sep 19 | Central Connecticut | W 35-30 | — | — | — | +0.397 | 52.5% | 1.29 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Nevada | W 20-7 | 330 | 0 | 32:42 | +0.144 | 44.6% | 1.07 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Butler | W 51-24 | — | — | — | +0.553 | 60.3% | 1.24 | |
| Aug 29 | @Utah Tech | W 54-0 | — | — | — | +0.328 | 56.2% | 1.05 | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (9 games) | 330 | 0.0 | +0.369 | 54.2% | 1.20 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · Montana State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 4%; 10 wins 32%; 11 wins 64%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 8-1
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season
A program that reversed 74 years of regional inferiority in a single season, proving that elite programs are built through relentless will, not inherited dynasty.
Montana State is 8-1 and plays at Idaho State next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Montana State · 2026