The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Montana State 2%, Northern Arizona 9%, Southern Utah 18%
Win out <1% · expect 0.3 of 3 more wins
Northern Colorado's chance to win each game left, from our model: Southern Utah 18%, Montana State 2%, Northern Arizona 9%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Brayten Silbor 823 · Rushing Justin Guin 535 · Receiving Trey Olsen 502 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | Weber State | L 29-30 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Lueth 226 · Rush Price 106 · Rec Mozer 70 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | South Dakota | L 23-38 | 0-2 | 0-1 | Pass Lueth 201 · Rush Price 34 · Rec Olsen 61 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Wyoming | L 13-21 122 | 0-3 | 0-1 | Pass Lueth 202 · Rush Guin 88 · Rec Mozer 72 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Northeastern State | W 23-17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Silbor 206 · Rush Silbor 36 · Rec Mozer 129 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Utah Tech | W 37-13 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Silbor 140 · Rush Guin 64 · Rec Lockett 53 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Montana | L 14-36 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Silbor 194 · Rush Lueth 58 · Rec Olsen 54 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Eastern Washington | L 22-31 | 2-5 | 1-3 | Pass Patterson 141 · Rush Lueth 87 · Rec Olsen 103 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Cal Poly | W 28-18 | 3-5 | 2-3 | Pass Patterson 118 · Rush Guin 128 · Rec Olsen 121 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @UC Davis | L 6-33 | 3-6 | 2-4 | Pass Silbor 199 · Rush Patterson 30 · Rec Mozer 69 |
| 9 | Bye week | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Southern Utah | 3 pm ET18% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Montana State | 2 pm ET2% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Northern Arizona | 4 pm ET9% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Northern Colorado, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @UC Davis | L 6-33 | — | — | — | −0.165 | 31.0% | 1.47 | |
| Oct 17 | Cal Poly | W 28-18 | — | — | — | +0.340 | 41.2% | 1.63 | |
| Oct 10 | @Eastern Washington | L 22-31 | — | — | — | +0.049 | 42.0% | 1.23 | |
| Oct 3 | @Montana | L 14-36 | — | — | — | +0.016 | 43.9% | 1.04 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | Utah Tech | W 37-13 | — | — | — | +0.197 | 42.2% | 1.26 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | Northeastern State | W 23-17 | — | — | — | +0.017 | 37.0% | 1.49 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Wyoming | L 13-21 | 345 | 2 | 31:07 | −0.194 | 35.5% | 1.12 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | South Dakota | L 23-38 | — | — | — | +0.168 | 34.7% | 1.65 | Most explosive |
| Aug 28 | Weber State | L 29-30 | — | — | — | +0.368 | 49.4% | 1.35 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 345 | 2.0 | +0.089 | 39.7% | 1.36 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Northern Colorado · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 72%; 4 wins 25%; 5 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season
Northern Colorado is 3-6 and plays at Southern Utah next.
Northern Colorado is 3-6 and plays at Southern Utah next.
Range of outcomes · Northern Colorado · 2026