UC Davis beats Northern Colorado 33-6

Team pages: Northern Colorado · UC Davis

Northern Colorado3-66
UC Davis5-333Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Aggie Stadium, Davis, Calif. · Crowd 7,841ESPN+

UC Davis beat Northern Colorado 33-6.

We had UC Davis favored. It won.

Next: Northern Colorado at Southern Utah, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: UC Davis at Weber State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UC Davis a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (UC Davis was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Favored the whole way: UC Davis never fell below 79%.

Northern Colorado never had better than a 20% chance.

FinalUC Davis 33-6 Northern ColoradoUC Davis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisWon33-6Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisWon33-6Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisLowest 0%Lost6-33Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisLowest 0%Lost6-33Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

UC Davis’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UC Davis -9.5), at 81% for UC Davis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

UC Davis scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Northern Colorado on 1 of its 9.

UC Davis’s drives are teal, Northern Colorado’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Northern Colorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntUC Davis: Touchdown, from 40 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 39PuntUC Davis: Touchdown, from 95 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Interception, from 83 yards out to 53InterceptionQ2UC Davis: Punt, from 47 yards out to 42PuntNorthern Colorado: Missed field goal, from 90 yards out to 26Missed FGUC Davis: Field goal, from 74 yards out to 13Field goalNorthern Colorado: Interception, from 65 yards out to 38InterceptionUC Davis: End of half, from 65 yards out to 65End of halfQ3UC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 8DownsUC Davis: Field goal, from 92 yards out to 8Field goalNorthern Colorado: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4UC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 1DownsUC Davis: Punt, from 99 yards out to 87PuntNorthern Colorado: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 19DownsUC Davis: Uncategorized, from 81 yards out to 82Uncategorized

Box score

UC Davis 33, Northern Colorado 6

UC Davis covered −9.5 by 17.5. The total, 39, stayed under 58.5.

Northern Colorado leaders

  • Passing Brayten Silbor 12 of 25, 199 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Keegan Patterson 11 for 30 yds; Justin Guin 6 for 19 yds
  • Receiving Marcus Mozer 6 for 69 yds, 1 TD; Brandon Lambert Jr. 2 for 66 yds

UC Davis leaders

  • Passing Treynor Cleeland 25 of 33, 266 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Jordan Fisher 20 for 97 yds, 2 TD; Samuel Gbatu Jr. 1 for 59 yds
  • Receiving Samuel Gbatu Jr. 7 for 117 yds; Zach Jones 4 for 31 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Northern Colorado · 3-5

Rated 255th in our preseason ratings, 227th now, up 28 spots.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Cal Poly as a 3-point underdog.

W 28-18 vs Cal Poly No. 204 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 3-point underdog

Northern Colorado won 28-18 vs Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 49%, low 20%, high better than 99%.

L 22-31 @ Eastern Washington No. 195 of 668 teams

lost by 9 as a 6.5-point underdog

Northern Colorado lost 22-31 at Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 31%.

L 14-36 @ Montana No. 96 of 668 teams

lost by 22 as a 21.5-point underdog

Northern Colorado lost 14-36 at Montana. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 5%.

W 37-13 vs Utah Tech No. 253 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 23-17 vs Northeastern State No. 270 of 668 teams

Northern Colorado won 23-17 vs Northeastern State. Chance to win started at 58%, low 1%, high better than 99%.

L 13-21 @ Wyoming No. 129 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 23.5-point underdog

Northern Colorado lost 13-21 at Wyoming. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 55%.

L 23-38 vs South Dakota No. 125 of 668 teams

lost by 15 as a 20.5-point underdog

Northern Colorado lost 23-38 vs South Dakota. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 28%.

L 29-30 vs Weber State No. 241 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 3-point favorite

Northern Colorado lost 29-30 vs Weber State. Chance to win started at 54%, low 10%, high 75%.

Last three games

UC Davis · 4-3

Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 171st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-38 @ Southern Utah No. 156 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

UC Davis lost 17-38 at Southern Utah. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 83%.

W 49-38 vs Eastern Washington No. 196 of 668 teams

won by 11 as an 8.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 49-38 vs Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 73%, low 72%, high better than 99%.

L 22-62 vs Montana No. 107 of 668 teams

lost by 40 as a 3-point favorite

UC Davis lost 22-62 vs Montana. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 67%.

W 45-7 vs Stetson No. 259 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 47.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 45-7 vs Stetson. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 10-56 @ SMUTop 25 No. 12 of 668 teams

lost by 46 as a 32.5-point underdog

UC Davis lost 10-56 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 49-17 @ San Diego No. 151 of 668 teams

won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 49-17 at San Diego. Chance to win started at 81%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

W 31-24 @ Portland State No. 242 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite

Week by week

UC Davis

Wk 2: L 10-56 at SMU▼46SMUWk 3: W 45-7 vs Stetson▲38StetsonWk 4: L 22-62 vs Montana▼40MontanaWk 5: W 49-38 vs Eastern Washington▲11E. Washi…Wk 7: L 17-38 at Southern Utah▼21S. Utah
  • Wk 2Lat SMU10-56
  • Wk 3Wvs Stetson45-7
  • Wk 4Lvs Montana22-62
  • Wk 5Wvs Eastern Washington49-38
  • Wk 7Lat Southern Utah17-38

Northern Colorado

Wk 3: W 23-17 vs Northeastern State▲6Northeas…Wk 4: W 37-13 vs Utah Tech▲24Utah TechWk 5: L 14-36 at Montana▼22MontanaWk 6: L 22-31 at Eastern Washington▼9E. Washi…Wk 7: W 28-18 vs Cal Poly▲10Cal Poly
  • Wk 3Wvs Northeastern State23-17
  • Wk 4Wvs Utah Tech37-13
  • Wk 5Lat Montana14-36
  • Wk 6Lat Eastern Washington22-31
  • Wk 7Wvs Cal Poly28-18

Power rating by week

UC Davis is rated 3.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-7-14Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7UC DavisNorthern Colorado

The series

UC Davis leads the series 11-3

14 meetings since 2003 · UC Davis has won the last 6

UC Davis wonNorthern Colorado won2003: Northern Colorado by 72004: UC Davis by 102005: UC Davis by 102006: UC Davis by 312008: UC Davis by 42013: UC Davis by 162014: Northern Colorado by 62015: Northern Colorado by 292016: UC Davis by 132018: UC Davis by 132021: UC Davis by 292022: UC Davis by 482024: UC Davis by 522025: UC Davis by 1120032025
  • 2025UC Davis 27-16
  • 2024UC Davis 59-7
  • 2022UC Davis 58-10
  • 2021UC Davis 32-3
  • 2018UC Davis 49-36

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on UC Davis’s chances here.

50-50Model · 64%Line · 78%Northern ColoradoUC Davis

UC Davis favored by 9.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

UC Davis by 9.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UC Davis is worth +8.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

67% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (2-1 home, 3-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.2 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±8.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 917 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.