The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Montana 3%, Southern Utah 16%, Eastern Washington 31%
Win out <1% · expect 0.5 of 3 more wins
Portland State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Montana 3%, Southern Utah 16%, Eastern Washington 31%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Gabe Downing 927 · Rushing Delon Thompson 682 · Receiving Terence Loville 667 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | UC Davis | L 24-31 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Smith 268 · Rush Thompson 48 · Rec Anderson 99 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @San Diego State | L 20-53 145 | 0-2 | 0-1 | Pass Downing 280 · Rush Thompson 80 · Rec Loville 119 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | North Dakota | L 23-47 | 0-3 | 0-1 | Pass Downing 233 · Rush Thompson 58 · Rec Loville 71 |
| 3 | Sep 18 | @Oregon | L 0-84 131 | 0-4 | 0-1 | Pass Downing 101 · Rush Thompson 12 · Rec Loville 50 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Weber State | W 44-41 | 1-4 | 1-1 | Pass Sagapolutele 161 · Rush Thompson 213 · Rec Loville 130 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Utah Tech | W 30-14 | 2-4 | 2-1 | Pass Smith 192 · Rush Thompson 78 · Rec Loville 54 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Northern Arizona | L 25-38 | 2-5 | 2-2 | Pass Smith 157 · Rush Thompson 127 · Rec Beaman 50 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Idaho State | L 8-38 | 2-6 | 2-3 | Pass Downing 173 · Rush Thompson 27 · Rec Beaman 70 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Idaho | L 14-38 | 2-7 | 2-4 | Pass Downing 140 · Rush Thompson 39 · Rec Loville 114 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Montana | 3 pm ET3% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 13 | Southern Utah | 10 pm ET16% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Eastern Washington | 4 pm ET31% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Portland State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Idaho | L 14-38 | — | — | — | −0.029 | 42.4% | 1.04 | |
| Oct 24 | @Idaho State | L 8-38 | — | — | — | −0.296 | 35.4% | 1.18 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | @Northern Arizona | L 25-38 | — | — | — | +0.298 | 47.1% | 1.26 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Utah Tech | W 30-14 | — | — | — | +0.207 | 41.7% | 1.45 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | @Weber State | W 44-41 | — | — | — | +0.081 | 31.3% | 1.60 | Most explosive |
| Sep 18 | @Oregon | L 0-84 | 103 | 4 | 18:42 | −0.568 | 13.2% | 1.35 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | North Dakota | L 23-47 | — | — | — | +0.148 | 43.5% | 1.14 | |
| Sep 5 | @San Diego State | L 20-53 | 375 | 3 | 33:25 | +0.027 | 42.0% | 0.89 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 29 | UC Davis | L 24-31 | — | — | — | +0.106 | 43.2% | 1.19 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 239 | 3.5 | −0.003 | 37.7% | 1.23 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
Range of outcomes · Portland State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 57%; 3 wins 37%; 4 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season
Portland State is 2-7 and plays at Montana next.
Portland State is 2-7 and plays at Montana next.
Range of outcomes · Portland State · 2026