Idaho beats Portland State 38-14

Team pages: Idaho · Portland State

Idaho4-538
Portland State2-714Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Hillsboro Stadium, Portland, Ore. · Crowd 1,910ESPN+

Idaho beat Portland State 38-14.

We had Idaho favored. It won.

Next: Idaho vs Eastern Washington, Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET

Next: Portland State at Montana, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Idaho a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (Idaho was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Favored the whole way: Idaho never fell below 64%.

Portland State never had better than a 36% chance.

FinalIdaho 38-14 Portland StateIdaho wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfIdahoWon38-1412+14+14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfIdahoWon38-1412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfIdahoLowest 0%Lost14-3812−14−14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfIdahoLowest 0%Lost14-3812Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:08Wood 28-yd TD pass to Card, Idaho goes ahead 7-0Idaho 74% → 88% (+14)
  2. 2Q1 0:55Wood 6-yd TD pass to Bias, Idaho goes ahead 14-7Idaho 73% → 87% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:08Wood 28-yd TD pass to Card, Idaho goes ahead 7-0Portland State 26% → 12% (−14)
  2. 2Q1 0:55Wood 6-yd TD pass to Bias, Idaho goes ahead 14-7Portland State 27% → 13% (−14)
Idaho’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Idaho -9.5), at 69% for Idaho (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Idaho scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Portland State on 2 of its 11.

Idaho’s drives are teal, Portland State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Idaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Punt, from 79 yards out to 62PuntIdaho: Turned over on downs, from 84 yards out to 65DownsPortland State: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 76PuntQ2Idaho: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntPortland State: Punt, from 94 yards out to 85PuntIdaho: Punt, from 54 yards out to 51PuntPortland State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 77PuntIdaho: Field goal, from 52 yards out to 29Field goalPortland State: Punt, from 83 yards out to 60PuntIdaho: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 17End of halfQ3Portland State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 69DownsIdaho: Touchdown, from 31 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 38DownsIdaho: Interception, from 62 yards out to 5InterceptionPortland State: Punt, from 92 yards out to 46PuntQ4Idaho: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: End of game, from 45 yards out to 36End of game

From Portland State’s side

Portland State’s best moment: Downing 4-yd TD pass to Loville, ties it 7-7 (Q1 3:09). It lifted Portland State’s win chance by 12 points.

Box score

Idaho 38, Portland State 14

Idaho covered −9.5 by 14.5. The total, 52, stayed under 63.5.

Idaho leaders

  • Passing Joshua Wood 16 of 25, 303 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Kenny Golston 8 for 55 yds; Damonte Bias 12 for 50 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ryan Jezioro 5 for 194 yds, 1 TD; Nolan McWilliams 3 for 32 yds

Portland State leaders

  • Passing Gabe Downing 14 of 21, 140 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Delon Thompson 11 for 39 yds; Niall Raby 2 for 0 yds
  • Receiving Terence Loville 9 for 114 yds, 2 TD; Zui Shelton 8 for 83 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Idaho · 3-5

Rated 171st in our preseason ratings, 163rd now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Montana as a 16.5-point underdog.

W 31-28 vs Southern Utah No. 152 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Idaho won 31-28 vs Southern Utah. Chance to win started at 71%, low 45%, high better than 99%.

W 42-35 @ Montana No. 109 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 16.5-point underdog

Idaho won 42-35 at Montana. Chance to win started at 10%, low 10%, high 91%.

L 27-38 @ Weber State No. 208 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 4-point favorite

Idaho lost 27-38 at Weber State. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 46%.

W 35-34 vs Montana State No. 84 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog

Idaho won 35-34 vs Montana State. Chance to win started at 18%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

L 39-41 vs Abilene Christian No. 130 of 668 teams

lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog

Idaho lost 39-41 vs Abilene Christian. Chance to win started at 54%, low 1%, high 74%.

L 17-23 vs Lamar No. 151 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 17-23 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 77%.

L 14-66 @ UtahTop 25 No. 26 of 668 teams

lost by 52 as a 38.5-point underdog

Idaho lost 14-66 at Utah. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 34-38 @ Cal Poly No. 218 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 5.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 34-38 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 90%.

Last three games

Portland State · 2-6

Rated 252nd in our preseason ratings, 247th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 8-38 @ Idaho State No. 143 of 668 teams

lost by 30 as a 14-point underdog

Portland State lost 8-38 at Idaho State. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 16%.

L 25-38 @ Northern Arizona No. 142 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 17.5-point underdog

Portland State lost 25-38 at Northern Arizona. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 46%.

W 30-14 vs Utah Tech No. 257 of 668 teams

won by 16 as a 2.5-point favorite

Portland State won 30-14 vs Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 63%, low 54%, high better than 99%.

W 44-41 @ Weber State No. 231 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 7-point underdog

L 0-84 @ OregonTop 25 No. 5 of 668 teams

lost by 84 as a 58.5-point underdog

Portland State lost 0-84 at Oregon. Never had a real chance.

L 23-47 vs North Dakota No. 124 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 25.5-point underdog

Portland State lost 23-47 vs North Dakota. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 8%.

L 20-53 @ San Diego State No. 40 of 668 teams

lost by 33 as a 38.5-point underdog

Portland State lost 20-53 at San Diego State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 4%.

L 24-31 vs UC Davis No. 115 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 25.5-point underdog

Week by week

Portland State

Wk 3: L 0-84 at Oregon▼84OregonWk 4: W 44-41 at Weber State▲3Weber St.Wk 6: W 30-14 vs Utah Tech▲16Utah TechWk 7: L 25-38 at Northern Arizona▼13N. Arizo…Wk 8: L 8-38 at Idaho State▼30Idaho St.
  • Wk 3Lat Oregon0-84
  • Wk 4Wat Weber State44-41
  • Wk 6Wvs Utah Tech30-14
  • Wk 7Lat Northern Arizona25-38
  • Wk 8Lat Idaho State8-38

Idaho

Wk 3: L 39-41 vs Abilene Christian▼2Abilene…Wk 5: W 35-34 vs Montana State▲1Montana…Wk 6: L 27-38 at Weber State▼11Weber St.Wk 7: W 42-35 at Montana▲7MontanaWk 8: W 31-28 vs Southern Utah▲3S. Utah
  • Wk 3Lvs Abilene Christian39-41
  • Wk 5Wvs Montana State35-34
  • Wk 6Lat Weber State27-38
  • Wk 7Wat Montana42-35
  • Wk 8Wvs Southern Utah31-28

Power rating by week

Idaho is rated 5.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-5-9-13Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Portland StateIdaho

The series

Idaho leads the series 7-1

8 meetings since 1970 · Idaho has won the last 4

Portland State wonIdaho won1970: Idaho by 11997: Idaho by 462018: Idaho by 132019: Portland State by 242021: Idaho by 72022: Idaho by 352024: Idaho by 92025: Idaho by 3919702025
  • 2025Idaho 45-6
  • 2024Idaho 39-30
  • 2022Idaho 56-21
  • 2021Idaho 42-35
  • 2019Portland State 24-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Portland State’s chances here.

50-50Model 24% · Line 22%IdahoPortland State

Idaho favored by 9.5 · Total 63.5

How games like this usually go

Idaho by 9.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Portland State is worth +1.4 points (±6.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 8th percentile.

0% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 293 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.