The rest of the season
One real test left: Weber State 67%
Win out 53% · expect 2.4 of 3 more wins
Northern Arizona's chance to win each game left, from our model: Cal Poly 87%, Weber State 67%, Northern Colorado 91%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Ty Pennington 2,190 · Rushing Quran Gossett 546 · Receiving Joey Stout 567 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Eastern Washington | W 34-27 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Pennington 164 · Rush Gossett 103 · Rec Purdy 105 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Arizona | L 7-35 124 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Pennington 180 · Rush Gossett 20 · Rec Stout 39 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Incarnate Word | W 38-28 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Pennington 153 · Rush Gossett 105 · Rec Stout 84 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Utah Tech | W 35-23 | 3-1 | 2-0 | Pass Pennington 311 · Rush Stone 90 · Rec Currie 117 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Montana State | L 14-28 | 3-2 | 2-1 | Pass Pennington 239 · Rush Pennington 72 · Rec Zimmerman 61 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Idaho State | W 38-31 | 4-2 | 3-1 | Pass Pennington 252 · Rush Stone 103 · Rec Purdy 146 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Montana | W 49-44 | 5-2 | 4-1 | Pass Pennington 322 · Rush Pennington 52 · Rec Stout 80 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Portland State | W 38-25 | 6-2 | 5-1 | Pass Pennington 277 · Rush Wilson 84 · Rec Stout 163 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Southern Utah | W 34-27 | 7-2 | 6-1 | Pass Pennington 292 · Rush Gossett 131 · Rec Currie 79 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Cal Poly | 5 pm ET87% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Weber State | 4 pm ET67% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Northern Colorado | 4 pm ET91% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Northern Arizona, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Southern Utah | W 34-27 | — | — | — | +0.398 | 50.8% | 1.26 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Portland State | W 38-25 | — | — | — | +0.319 | 47.7% | 1.53 | |
| Oct 10 | Montana | W 49-44 | — | — | — | +0.099 | 54.7% | 0.97 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | @Idaho State | W 38-31 | — | — | — | +0.475 | 55.6% | 1.26 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Montana State | L 14-28 | — | — | — | −0.098 | 45.6% | 0.79 | |
| Sep 19 | @Utah Tech | W 35-23 | — | — | — | +0.403 | 51.6% | 1.52 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | Incarnate Word | W 38-28 | — | — | — | +0.095 | 42.9% | 0.96 | |
| Sep 5 | @Arizona | L 7-35 | 193 | 1 | 27:48 | −0.229 | 17.0% | 1.78 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Eastern Washington | W 34-27 | — | — | — | +0.158 | 45.7% | 0.95 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 193 | 1.0 | +0.180 | 45.7% | 1.23 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last four.
Range of outcomes · Northern Arizona · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 7%; 9 wins 39%; 10 wins 53%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season
Northern Arizona is 7-2 and plays at Cal Poly next.
Northern Arizona is 7-2 and plays at Cal Poly next.
Range of outcomes · Northern Arizona · 2026