Northern Arizona beats Eastern Washington 34-27

Team pages: Eastern Washington · Northern Arizona

Eastern Washington0-127
Northern Arizona1-034Final
Sat, Aug 29 · Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, Ariz. · Crowd 8,224ESPN+

Northern Arizona beat Eastern Washington 34-27 after its win chance fell to 9%.

Winners have been down to 9% or less in about 1 of every 12 games since 2018.

Next: Eastern Washington beat Northern Iowa 34-24, Sat Sep 5

Next: Northern Arizona lost to Arizona 35-7, Sat Sep 5

How it swung

The turning point: Gossett 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-17 (Q2, 0:23). Northern Arizona went from 23% to 53% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northern Arizona a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (Northern Arizona was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.

24 unansweredNorthern Arizona · Q4 13:35
FinalNorthern Arizona 34-27 Eastern WashingtonNorthern Arizona wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q440% at halfLowest 9%Won34-27123−21+30+29Scores24 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q440% at halfLowest 9%Won34-27123Scores24 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q460% at halfHigh 91%Lost27-34123+21−30−29Scores24 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q460% at halfHigh 91%Lost27-34123Scores24 unanswered

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 6:13Bell 12-yd TD run, Eastern Washington leads 17-3Northern Arizona 37% → 16% (−21)
  2. 2Q2 0:23Gossett 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-17Northern Arizona 23% → 53% (+30)
  3. 3Q4 3:544th and 2Pennington 2-yd TD pass to Isaac, Northern Arizona goes ahead 34-27Northern Arizona 65% → 94% (+29)

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 6:13Bell 12-yd TD run, Eastern Washington leads 17-3Eastern Washington 63% → 84% (+21)
  2. 2Q2 0:23Gossett 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-17Eastern Washington 77% → 47% (−30)
  3. 3Q4 3:544th and 2Pennington 2-yd TD pass to Isaac, Northern Arizona goes ahead 34-27Eastern Washington 35% → 6% (−29)
Northern Arizona’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Northern Arizona -5.5), at 77% for Northern Arizona (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Northern Arizona scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Eastern Washington on 6 of its 13.

Northern Arizona’s drives are teal, Eastern Washington’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Eastern Washington: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Arizona: Fumble returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 69Fumble TDNorthern Arizona: Field goal, from 20 yards out to 6Field goalEastern Washington: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 36Field goalNorthern Arizona: Punt, from 75 yards out to 61PuntQ2Eastern Washington: Punt, from 78 yards out to 47PuntNorthern Arizona: Punt, from 91 yards out to 38PuntEastern Washington: Touchdown, from 86 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Arizona: Interception, from 83 yards out to 65InterceptionEastern Washington: Touchdown, from 27 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Interception, from 75 yards out to 80InterceptionNorthern Arizona: Touchdown, from 33 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Northern Arizona: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 8Field goalEastern Washington: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 39DownsNorthern Arizona: Punt, from 61 yards out to 56PuntEastern Washington: Punt, from 90 yards out to 67PuntNorthern Arizona: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Eastern Washington: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 20Field goalNorthern Arizona: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntNorthern Arizona: Punt, from 62 yards out to 60PuntEastern Washington: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 5DownsNorthern Arizona: Uncategorized, from 89 yards out to 95Uncategorized

From Eastern Washington’s side

Eastern Washington’s best moment: Bell 12-yd TD run, Eastern Washington leads 17-3 (Q2 6:13). It lifted Eastern Washington’s win chance by 21 points.

Too close to call on 61% of plays. The winner fell to 9%.

Box score

Northern Arizona 34, Eastern Washington 27

Northern Arizona covered −5.5 by 1.5. The total, 61, went over 55.5.

Eastern Washington leaders

  • Passing Nate Bell 30 of 47, 307 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Kevin Allen III 8 for 47 yds; Malik Dotson 13 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Jaxon Branch 7 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Drew Carlson 9 for 75 yds

Northern Arizona leaders

  • Passing Ty Pennington 15 of 27, 164 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Quran Gossett 21 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Ty Pennington 8 for 61 yds
  • Receiving Jeter Purdy 7 for 105 yds, 1 TD; Hayden Daugherty 2 for 28 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Eastern Washington · 5-7

Rated 186th in our preseason ratings.

L 34-43 @ Cal Poly #196 of 667

lost by 9 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 27-7 vs Northern Colorado #233 of 667

won by 20 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 24-29 @ Montana #79 of 667

lost by 5 as a 27-point underdog

L 13-35 vs Sacramento State #111 of 667

lost by 22 as an 8.5-point underdog

Eastern Washington lost 13-35 vs Sacramento State. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 45%.

W 23-20 @ Weber State #212 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 21-14 vs Idaho #169 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 35-27 vs Portland State #248 of 667

won by 8 as an 11-point favorite

L 3-57 @ Montana State #82 of 667

lost by 54 as a 21-point underdog

W 52-31 vs Western Illinois #238 of 667

won by 21 as a 13-point favorite

L 14-17 @ Northern Iowa #196 of 667

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 14-51 @ Boise StateTop 25 #59 of 667

lost by 37 as a 33.5-point underdog

Eastern Washington lost 14-51 at Boise State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 21-31 @ Incarnate Word #129 of 667

lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

Northern Arizona · 7-5

Rated 152nd in our preseason ratings.

L 28-48 @ Weber State #215 of 667

lost by 20 as a 14-point favorite

W 35-27 vs Cal Poly #197 of 667

won by 8 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 49-10 vs Northern Colorado #228 of 667

won by 39 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 32-35 vs Idaho #149 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 31-18 @ Idaho State #211 of 667

won by 13 as a 3-point favorite

L 24-45 @ UC Davis #101 of 667

lost by 21 as a 7-point underdog

L 10-34 vs Montana State #74 of 667

lost by 24 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 31-17 @ Portland State #248 of 667

won by 14 as a 21-point favorite

W 31-23 vs Incarnate Word #141 of 667

won by 8 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 52-49 @ Southern Utah #158 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 38-31 vs Utah Tech #222 of 667

won by 7 as a 21-point favorite

L 19-38 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 19 as a 29.5-point underdog

Northern Arizona lost 19-38 at Arizona State. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

The series

Eastern Washington leads the series 10-5

15 meetings since 2004 · Northern Arizona has won the last 2

Northern Arizona wonEastern Washington won2004: Eastern Washington by 312005: Eastern Washington by 282006: Northern Arizona by 82007: Eastern Washington by 282008: Eastern Washington by 152009: Eastern Washington by 42010: Eastern Washington by 72011: Eastern Washington by 82014: Northern Arizona by 12015: Northern Arizona by 222016: Eastern Washington by 152018: Eastern Washington by 52019: Eastern Washington by 282023: Northern Arizona by 72024: Northern Arizona by 1220042024
  • 2024Northern Arizona 30-18
  • 2023Northern Arizona 49-42
  • 2019Eastern Washington 66-38
  • 2018Eastern Washington 31-26
  • 2016Eastern Washington 50-35

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Northern Arizona’s chances here.

50-50Model 64% · Line 67%Eastern WashingtonNorthern Arizona

Northern Arizona favored by 5.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Northern Arizona by 5.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Northern Arizona.

opened −3now −5.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 56.5now 55.5

Spread: −3 → −5.5 · Total: 56.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Northern Arizona is worth +8.7 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.

50% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (2-2 home, 3-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. 6,883 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 904 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.