The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 80%
Win out 65% · expect 2.6 of 3 more wins
Southern Utah's chance to win each game left, from our model: Northern Colorado 82%, Portland State 84%, Chicago State 95%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Will Burns 1,597 · Rushing Floyd Chalk IV 1,219 · Receiving Mark Bails 473 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Montana | L 21-28 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Burns 251 · Rush Burns 119 · Rec Acord 86 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Weber State | W 47-42 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Pass Burns 146 · Rush Chalk IV 183 · Rec Spjut 44 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Colorado State | L 24-58 133 | 1-2 | 1-1 | Pass Burns 233 · Rush Chalk IV 144 · Rec Bails 138 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 26-28 | 1-3 | 1-1 | Pass Burns 221 · Rush Chalk IV 118 · Rec Bails 106 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Idaho State | L 24-28 | 1-4 | 1-2 | Pass Burns 153 · Rush Chalk IV 159 · Rec Bails 65 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Utah Tech | W 46-33 | 2-4 | 2-2 | Pass Burns 124 · Rush Burns 187 · Rec Acord 42 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | UC Davis | W 38-17 | 3-4 | 3-2 | Pass Burns 126 · Rush Chalk IV 212 · Rec Acord 67 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Idaho | L 28-31 | 3-5 | 3-3 | Pass Burns 205 · Rush Burns 187 · Rec Bails 69 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Northern Arizona | L 27-34 | 3-6 | 3-4 | Pass Burns 138 · Rush Chalk IV 130 · Rec Spjut 63 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Northern Colorado | 3 pm ET82% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 13 | @Portland State | 10 pm ET84% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Chicago State | 2 pm ET95% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Southern Utah, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Northern Arizona | L 27-34 | — | — | — | +0.038 | 41.8% | 1.00 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | @Idaho | L 28-31 | — | — | — | +0.123 | 34.3% | 1.96 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | UC Davis | W 38-17 | — | — | — | +0.372 | 40.3% | 1.57 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Utah Tech | W 46-33 | — | — | — | +0.322 | 51.8% | 1.36 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | Idaho State | L 24-28 | — | — | — | +0.062 | 41.3% | 1.37 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 26-28 | — | — | — | +0.048 | 41.5% | 1.13 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | @Colorado State | L 24-58 | 442 | 4 | 33:18 | −0.008 | 34.8% | 1.29 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Weber State | W 47-42 | — | — | — | +0.179 | 44.6% | 1.40 | One-score win |
| Aug 29 | @Montana | L 21-28 | — | — | — | +0.228 | 47.6% | 1.19 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 442 | 4.0 | +0.151 | 42.0% | 1.36 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · Southern Utah · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 4%; 5 wins 30%; 6 wins 65%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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Southern Utah is the Thunderbirds that just returned to the Big Sky in 2026 after a 5-year exile in the WAC/UAC, a small Utah-proud program now re-anchored to the conference where it belongs.
Southern Utah is the Thunderbirds that just returned to the Big Sky in 2026 after a 5-year exile in the WAC/UAC, a small Utah-proud program now re-anchored to the conference where it belongs.
Range of outcomes · Southern Utah · 2026