The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Weber State 10%, UC Davis 19%, Eastern Washington 43%
Win out 1% · expect 0.7 of 3 more wins
Utah Tech's chance to win each game left, from our model: UC Davis 19%, Eastern Washington 43%, Weber State 10%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Bronson Barben 1,535 · Rushing Asa Chatman 479 · Receiving Mike Williams 435 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Montana State | L 0-54 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Tiller 91 · Rush Barben 21 · Rec Williams 42 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @BYU | L 7-63 124 | 0-2 | 0-1 | Pass Barben 115 · Rush Chatman 38 · Rec O'Quinn 41 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Montana | L 14-35 | 0-3 | 0-2 | Pass Barben 301 · Rush Chatman 95 · Rec Williams 80 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Northern Arizona | L 23-35 | 0-4 | 0-3 | Pass Barben 143 · Rush Chatman 110 · Rec Chatman 39 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Northern Colorado | L 13-37 | 0-5 | 0-4 | Pass Barben 227 · Rush Chatman 45 · Rec O'Quinn 84 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Southern Utah | L 33-46 | 0-6 | 0-5 | Pass Hill 226 · Rush Chatman 101 · Rec Williams 160 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Portland State | L 14-30 | 0-7 | 0-6 | Pass Barben 224 · Rush Barben 61 · Rec Morris 62 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Cal Poly | W 43-26 | 1-7 | 1-6 | Pass Hill 213 · Rush Curtis 59 · Rec O'Quinn 68 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Idaho State | L 27-34 | 1-8 | 1-7 | Pass Barben 260 · Rush Chatman 52 · Rec Williams 79 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @UC Davis | 7 pm ET19% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Eastern Washington | 4 pm ET43% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Weber State | 3 pm ET10% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Utah Tech, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Idaho State | L 27-34 | — | — | — | +0.225 | 43.0% | 1.19 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | @Cal Poly | W 43-26 | — | — | — | +0.198 | 46.5% | 1.16 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | @Portland State | L 14-30 | — | — | — | −0.069 | 29.9% | 1.38 | |
| Oct 3 | Southern Utah | L 33-46 | — | — | — | +0.360 | 47.9% | 1.38 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Northern Colorado | L 13-37 | — | — | — | −0.101 | 40.8% | 1.15 | |
| Sep 19 | Northern Arizona | L 23-35 | — | — | — | +0.017 | 37.1% | 0.99 | |
| Sep 12 | @Montana | L 14-35 | — | — | — | +0.080 | 48.5% | 0.78 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | @BYU | L 7-63 | 184 | 4 | 26:27 | −0.109 | 31.6% | 1.11 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 29 | Montana State | L 0-54 | — | — | — | −0.342 | 27.9% | 1.23 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 184 | 4.0 | +0.029 | 39.3% | 1.15 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Utah Tech · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 42%; 2 wins 46%; 3 wins 12%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-8
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season
Utah Tech is the newest Big Sky member (2026 debut from WAC), the rebranded Dixie State that changed its mascot to Trailblazers in 2022 and is now starting over in FCS with minimal institutional football tradition.
Utah Tech is the newest Big Sky member (2026 debut from WAC), the rebranded Dixie State that changed its mascot to Trailblazers in 2022 and is now starting over in FCS with minimal institutional football tradition.
Range of outcomes · Utah Tech · 2026