Utah Tech upsets Cal Poly 43-26
Utah Tech beat Cal Poly 43-26 as a 15.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 4%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 4% or less in about 1 of every 30 games since 2018.
We had Cal Poly favored. Utah Tech won.
Next: Utah Tech vs Idaho State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
Next: Cal Poly at Montana State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Hill 4-yd TD pass to Chatman, Utah Tech leads 27-11 (Q3, 8:23). Utah Tech went from 46% to 82% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Utah Tech an 11% chance, and the closing betting line (Utah Tech was a 15.5-point underdog) put it at 11%.
Utah Tech · Q1 1:11Utah Tech 43-26 Cal Poly
Utah Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Cal Poly 26-43 Utah TechCal Poly lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 8:23Hill 4-yd TD pass to Chatman, Utah Tech leads 27-11Utah Tech 46% → 82% (+36)
- 2Q3 4:12Washington 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 27-19Utah Tech 75% → 44% (−31)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 8:23Hill 4-yd TD pass to Chatman, Utah Tech leads 27-11Cal Poly 54% → 18% (−36)
- 2Q3 4:12Washington 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 27-19Cal Poly 25% → 56% (+31)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Cal Poly -15.5), at 10% for Utah Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Utah Tech scored on 7 of its 14 drives; Cal Poly on 4 of its 13.
Utah Tech’s drives are teal, Cal Poly’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Cal Poly’s side
Cal Poly’s best moment: Washington 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 27-19 (Q3 4:12). It lifted Cal Poly’s win chance by 31 points.
The winner fell to 4%.
Box score
Utah Tech 43, Cal Poly 26
Utah Tech covered +15.5 by 32.5. The total, 69, went over 54.5.
Utah Tech leaders
- Passing Deacon Hill 20 of 36, 213 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Junior Curtis 9 for 59 yds; Deacon Hill 14 for 55 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Darnell O'Quinn 5 for 68 yds; Mike Williams 3 for 38 yds
Cal Poly leaders
- Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 26 of 39, 272 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing Koen Glover 3 for 27 yds; Misa Paiau 11 for 24 yds
- Receiving Don-Ray Hall Jr. 7 for 96 yds; Brooks Wheatley 4 for 63 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Utah Tech · 0-7
Rated 237th in our preseason ratings, 257th now.
Three straight losses.
L 14-30 @ Portland State No. 244 of 668 teams
lost by 16 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 33-46 vs Southern Utah No. 167 of 668 teams
lost by 13 as a 10.5-point underdog
L 13-37 @ Northern Colorado No. 244 of 668 teams
lost by 24 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 23-35 vs Northern Arizona No. 158 of 668 teams
lost by 12 as a 16.5-point underdog
Last three games
Cal Poly · 4-4
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 204th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Idaho State as a 14.5-point underdog.
W 24-17 vs Central Washington No. 268 of 668 teams
Week by week
Cal Poly
- Wk 3Lvs San Diego35-38
- Wk 4Wat Eastern Washington31-27
- Wk 5Lvs Weber State34-42
- Wk 6Wat Idaho State25-24
- Wk 7Lat Northern Colorado18-28
Utah Tech
- Wk 2Lat Montana14-35
- Wk 3Lvs Northern Arizona23-35
- Wk 4Lat Northern Colorado13-37
- Wk 5Lvs Southern Utah33-46
- Wk 6Lat Portland State14-30
Power rating by week
Cal Poly is rated 4.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Cal Poly leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2009 · Cal Poly won the last meeting
- 2009Cal Poly 44-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Cal Poly’s chances here.
Cal Poly favored by 15.5 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
Cal Poly by 15.5, on the usual path until Q1 1:11
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Utah Tech.
Spread: −17.5 → −15.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Cal Poly is worth +6.0 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.
33% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 47 games — inside the ±8.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 415 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.