Cal Poly beats Central Washington 24-17
Team pages: Central Washington · Cal Poly
Cal Poly beat Central Washington 24-17. Share this game
We had Cal Poly favored. It won.
Next: Central Washington lost to Ferris State 28-14, Sat Sep 12
How it swung
The turning point: Grigsby 55-yd TD pass to Hall, ties it 7-7 (Q2, 10:58). Cal Poly went from 26% to 53% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Cal Poly an 88% chance.
A tight one: Cal Poly bottomed out at 24% and won.
Up to 76% in the second quarter, then Central Washington lost it.
Cal Poly · Q2 6:47Cal Poly 24-17 Central Washington
Cal Poly wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Central Washington 17-24 Cal PolyCentral Washington lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:474th and 1Brennan 1-yd TD run, Central Washington goes ahead 7-0Cal Poly 48% → 31% (−17)
- 2Q2 10:58Grigsby 55-yd TD pass to Hall, ties it 7-7Cal Poly 26% → 53% (+27)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:474th and 1Brennan 1-yd TD run, Central Washington goes ahead 7-0Central Washington 52% → 69% (+17)
- 2Q2 10:58Grigsby 55-yd TD pass to Hall, ties it 7-7Central Washington 74% → 47% (−27)
How to read this chart
Not adjusted for the pregame line. Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Cal Poly scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Central Washington on 3 of its 10.
Cal Poly’s drives are teal, Central Washington’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Central Washington’s side
Central Washington’s best moment: Brennan 1-yd TD run, Central Washington goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 1:47). It lifted Central Washington’s win chance by 17 points.
Box score
Cal Poly 24, Central Washington 17
Central Washington leaders
- Passing Justin Brennan 25 of 36, 262 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Ryder Bumgarner 21 for 99 yds; Justin Brennan 10 for 42 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Mason Juergens 10 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Isaac Torres 6 for 81 yds
Cal Poly leaders
- Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 15 of 27, 204 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Jaden Green 13 for 94 yds; Misa Paiau 12 for 49 yds
- Receiving Don-Ray Hall Jr. 5 for 125 yds, 2 TD; Fidel Tau Pitts 4 for 39 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Central Washington · 10-2
Rated 270th in our preseason ratings.
L 20-27 vs Western Colorado #265 of 667
W 19-17 @ Western Oregon #292 of 667
W 73-7 @ Sul Ross State #497 of 667
W 38-21 vs Angelo State #313 of 667
W 56-13 @ Midwestern State #384 of 667
W 24-21 vs Texas A&M-Kingsville #334 of 667
W 27-14 @ UT Permian Basin #290 of 667
W 58-7 vs Eastern New Mexico #384 of 667
W 91-31 @ Western New Mexico #418 of 667
W 52-6 vs West Texas #312 of 667
L 17-42 @ Montana #118 of 667
W 41-14 vs Colorado Mesa #318 of 667
Last three games · 2025 season
Cal Poly · 4-8
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 199th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 43-34 vs Eastern Washington #192 of 667
won by 9 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 27-35 @ Northern Arizona #146 of 667
lost by 8 as an 11.5-point underdog
L 17-27 @ Idaho State #181 of 667
lost by 10 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 35-40 vs Portland State #249 of 667
lost by 5 as an 18-point favorite
L 17-34 vs Montana State #66 of 667
lost by 17 as a 21.5-point underdog
L 9-28 @ Montana #100 of 667
lost by 19 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 27-34 vs UC Davis #109 of 667
W 32-24 @ Sacramento State #130 of 667
won by 8 as an 18-point underdog
L 17-35 @ Stephen F. Austin #134 of 667
lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 56-7 vs Western Oregon #338 of 667
L 9-63 @ UtahTop 25 #36 of 667
lost by 54 as a 42.5-point underdog
W 41-17 @ San Diego #168 of 667
won by 24 as a 1.5-point underdog
Line, fans and home field
Home field
Cal Poly is worth +6.0 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.
33% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 46 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 808 miles to get here.