Big Sky Cal Poly

Record4-6through 10 games
Nextvs Northern ArizonaSat Nov 7 · 5 pm ET

LeadersPassing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 2,153 · Rushing Jaden Green 894 · Receiving Tayvion McCoy 827 All player stats

The model#97 among FCS teams

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Cal Poly:athletics siteBig SkyX@CPMustangs

Schedule and results

Cal Poly · 2026 schedule and results4-6Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.
WkDateOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Aug 28IdahoW 38-34Cal Poly won 38-34 vs Idaho. Chance to win started at 51%, low 10%, high better than 99%.1-01-0Pass Grigsby Jr. 319 · Rush Green 71 · Rec McCoy 170
1Sep 5Central WashingtonW 24-17Cal Poly won 24-17 vs Central Washington. Chance to win started at 64%, low 24%, high better than 99%.2-01-0Pass Grigsby Jr. 204 · Rush Green 94 · Rec Hall Jr. 125
2Sep 12@San José StateL 20-30 147Cal Poly lost 20-30 at San José State. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 18%.2-11-0Pass Grigsby Jr. 249 · Rush Green 52 · Rec Pitts 103
3Sep 19San DiegoL 35-38Cal Poly lost 35-38 vs San Diego. Chance to win started at 93%, low under 1%, high 93%.2-21-0Pass Grigsby Jr. 211 · Rush Green 126 · Rec McCoy 105
4Sep 26@Eastern WashingtonW 31-27Cal Poly won 31-27 at Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 33%, low 15%, high better than 99%.3-22-0Pass Grigsby Jr. 163 · Rush Green 269 · Rec McCoy 69
5Oct 3Weber StateL 34-42Cal Poly lost 34-42 vs Weber State. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 92%.3-32-1Pass Grigsby Jr. 213 · Rush Green 170 · Rec Hall Jr. 86
6Oct 10@Idaho StateW 25-24Cal Poly won 25-24 at Idaho State. Chance to win started at 10%, low 4%, high 92%.4-33-1Pass Grigsby Jr. 198 · Rush Grigsby Jr. 55 · Rec McCoy 78
7Oct 17@Northern ColoradoL 18-28Cal Poly lost 18-28 at Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 80%.4-43-2Pass Grigsby Jr. 300 · Rush Green 63 · Rec McCoy 128
8Oct 24Utah TechL 26-43Cal Poly lost 26-43 vs Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 90%, low under 1%, high 96%.4-53-3Pass Grigsby Jr. 285 · Rush Glover 27 · Rec Hall Jr. 109
9Oct 31@Montana StateL 7-61Cal Poly lost 7-61 at Montana State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.4-63-4Pass Kelly 128 · Rush Paiau 70 · Rec McCoy 78
10Nov 7Northern Arizona5 pm ET13% to win
11Bye week
12Nov 21@UC Davis4 pm ET26% to win
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Cal Poly, through 10 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@Montana StateL 7-61———−0.26837.5%1.05Season-low EPA/play
Oct 24Utah TechL 26-43———−0.08238.9%1.36
Oct 17@Northern ColoradoL 18-28———+0.14351.4%0.81
Oct 10@Idaho StateW 25-24———+0.02134.3%1.44Most explosive
Oct 3Weber StateL 34-42———+0.08247.6%1.02One-score loss
Sep 26@Eastern WashingtonW 31-27———−0.02143.3%1.04One-score win
Sep 19San DiegoL 35-38———+0.26051.9%1.39Best success rate
Sep 12@San José StateL 20-30340228:58+0.03545.8%1.09
Sep 5Central WashingtonW 24-17———+0.11442.9%1.20One-score win
Aug 28IdahoW 38-34———+0.34451.2%1.19Season-high EPA/play
Season average (10 games)3402.0+0.06344.5%1.16

Ahead

The forecast

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Next: Northern Arizonavs Northern Arizona · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Cal Poly has won one of its last five.

4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last three.

Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6

Range of outcomes · Cal Poly · 2026

Cal Poly’s base case is 5-7, mid-table finish. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 6-6.

What each outcome looks like
Floor5-7Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
Base5-7Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
Ceiling6-6Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection's regular season. Every scenario starts from the 4-6 record so far.

More in this tab

Worth watchingGames average 60 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-6

Game feel60even gamescombined pts / game10th highest-scoring of 13 in the Big Sky
Heart rate4-2white-knucklein one-score games (6 of 10)3rd most one-score games of 13 in the Big Sky
Margin−8.6competitiveavg scoring margin10th best margin of 13 in the Big Sky
Big plays1.16grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)12th most explosive of 13 in the Big Sky
Home crowd9,429avg attendance4th biggest crowds of 13 in the Big Sky

Measured from 10 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Cal Poly is 4-6 and hosts Northern Arizona next.

2026 Record4-6
Read the full program story ↓
Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Cal Poly is 4-6 and hosts Northern Arizona next.

RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster reload: Cal Poly

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable
Portal Additions11Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses11Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting ReloadNARecruiting class signal unavailable
Sin 2 - RL Miller3.40out 3 - Jeremiah Bernard3.50Downgrade
Hybrid Nickel2024 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
OTin 0out 2 - Trevor Newkirk3.49Starter Risk
TEin 2 - Luke Leighton3.49out 0Need Filled
Complete TEshows up in the passing game from any alignment
Recruited as an athlete
QBin 1 - Dermaricus Davis4.28out 1 - Ty Dieffenbach3.50Even
IOLin 1 - Davit Boyajyan3.40out 1 - Racin Delgatty3.70Even
RBin 1 - Jaden Green3.50out 1 - Jaedon Matthews3.49Even
FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

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Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site