Big Sky UC Davis

Record5-4through 9 games
Nextvs Utah TechSat Nov 7 · 7 pm ET

The rest of the season

One real test left: Idaho 26%

Win out 15% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins

UC Davis's chance to win each game left, from our model: Utah Tech 81%, Idaho 26%, Cal Poly 74%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.

LeadersPassing Treynor Cleeland 2,246 · Rushing Jordan Fisher 975 · Receiving Samuel Gbatu Jr. 853 All player stats

The model#49 among FCS teams

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

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Schedule and results

UC Davis · 2026 schedule and results5-4Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 40% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.
WkDateOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Aug 29@Portland StateW 31-241-01-0Pass Cleeland 287 · Rush Fisher 65 · Rec Gbatu Jr. 107
1Sep 5@San DiegoW 49-17UC Davis won 49-17 at San Diego. Chance to win started at 81%, low 49%, high better than 99%.2-01-0Pass Cleeland 294 · Rush Perez 123 · Rec Gbatu Jr. 129
2Sep 12@SMUL 10-56 116UC Davis lost 10-56 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.2-11-0Pass Kollock 88 · Rush Herman 19 · Rec Gbatu Jr. 60
3Sep 19StetsonW 45-7UC Davis won 45-7 vs Stetson. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.3-11-0Pass Cleeland 331 · Rush Fisher 65 · Rec Gbatu Jr. 172
4Sep 26MontanaL 22-62UC Davis lost 22-62 vs Montana. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 67%.3-21-1Pass Cleeland 194 · Rush Fisher 102 · Rec Gbatu Jr. 103
5Oct 3Eastern WashingtonW 49-38UC Davis won 49-38 vs Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 73%, low 72%, high better than 99%.4-22-1Pass Cleeland 278 · Rush Fisher 255 · Rec Gbatu Jr. 92
6Bye week
7Oct 17@Southern UtahL 17-38UC Davis lost 17-38 at Southern Utah. Chance to win started at 52%, low under 1%, high 83%.4-32-2Pass Cleeland 248 · Rush Fisher 180 · Rec Bradley 75
8Oct 24Northern ColoradoW 33-6UC Davis won 33-6 vs Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 81%, low 80%, high better than 99%.5-33-2Pass Cleeland 266 · Rush Fisher 97 · Rec Gbatu Jr. 117
9Oct 31@Weber StateL 14-38UC Davis lost 14-38 at Weber State. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 53%.5-43-3Pass Cleeland 265 · Rush Fisher 128 · Rec Jones 76
10Nov 7Utah Tech7 pm ET81% to win
11Nov 14@Idaho4 pm ET26% to win
12Nov 21Cal Poly4 pm ET74% to win
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for UC Davis, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@Weber StateL 14-38———−0.10429.1%1.66
Oct 24Northern ColoradoW 33-6———+0.36547.0%1.21
Oct 17@Southern UtahL 17-38———−0.04439.2%1.39
Oct 3Eastern WashingtonW 49-38———+0.43544.1%2.08Season-high EPA/play
Sep 26MontanaL 22-62———+0.15142.3%1.40Blowout loss
Sep 19StetsonW 45-7———+0.29751.4%1.35Best defensive stand
Sep 12@SMUL 10-56233232:40−0.32028.1%1.07Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5@San DiegoW 49-17———+0.39252.2%1.32Best success rate
Aug 29@Portland StateW 31-24———+0.10247.8%1.01One-score win
Season average (9 games)2332.0+0.14242.4%1.39

Ahead

The forecast

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Next: Utah Techvs Utah Tech · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

UC Davis has won two of its last five.

5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5

Range of outcomes · UC Davis · 2026

UC Davis’ most common regular-season record in our model is 7-5. Most outcomes (96%) land from 6-6 to 8-4.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

5 wins 4%; 6 wins 28%; 7 wins 53%; 8 wins 15%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive, but outside the at-large field.
Base7-5Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
Ceiling8-4Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.

More in this tab

Worth watchingGames average 62 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4

Game feel62even gamescombined pts / game7th highest-scoring of 13 in the Big Sky
Heart rate1-0rarely closein one-score games (1 of 9)13th most one-score games of 13 in the Big Sky
Margin−1.8competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 13 in the Big Sky
Big plays1.39highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)1st most explosive of 13 in the Big Sky
Home crowd10,756avg attendance3rd biggest crowds of 13 in the Big Sky

Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written July 2026

UC Davis is the Big Sky blue blood that dominated the Causeway Classic against Sacramento State — winning the last three meetings including the finale on November 22, 2025 — and now enters 2026 without the defining rival that built the program's regional identity for 71 years.

2026 Record5-4
Read the full program story ↓
Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

UC Davis is the Big Sky blue blood that owns the Causeway Classic rivalry with Sacramento State, winning the last three meetings including a 31-27 victory in the finale on November 22, 2025, only to watch the Hornets leave for the FBS and end the series, stranding the Aggies without their defining annual game.

RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster reload: UC Davis

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable
Portal Additions5Primary repair: ATH
Portal Losses3Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting ReloadNARecruiting class signal unavailable
RBin 1 - Chauncey Sylvester3.49out 1 - Carter Vargas3.60Even
QBin 1 - Jackson Kollock3.50out 1 - Caden Pinnick3.50Even
ATHin 1 - Hayden John3.49out 0Upgrade
TEin 1 - Jacob Houseworth3.49out 0Upgrade
Sin 0out 1 - Lamont Shamburger3.40Downgrade
Kin 1 - Robert Meyer1.00out 0Even
Steady2025 profilehandles the kicks without drama
FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow UC Davis

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site