Big Sky Idaho

Record4-5through 9 games
Nextvs Eastern WashingtonSat Nov 7 · 5 pm ET

The rest of the season

Two real tests left: Idaho State 42%, Eastern Washington 64%

Win out 20% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins

Idaho's chance to win each game left, from our model: Eastern Washington 64%, UC Davis 74%, Idaho State 42%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.

LeadersPassing Joshua Wood 2,492 · Rushing Joshua Wood 438 · Receiving Tony Harste 607 All player stats

The model#23 among FCS teams

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Idaho:athletics siteBig SkyX@Idaho_Vandals

Schedule and results

Idaho · 2026 schedule and results4-5Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 60% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now.
WkDateOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Aug 28@Cal PolyL 34-38Idaho lost 34-38 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 90%.0-10-1Pass Wood 363 · Rush Miller 44 · Rec Harste 180
1Sep 3@UtahL 14-66 136Idaho lost 14-66 at Utah. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.0-20-1Pass Wood 111 · Rush Wood 41 · Rec West-Baranco 44
2Sep 12LamarL 17-23Idaho lost 17-23 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 77%.0-30-1Pass Wood 205 · Rush Wood 50 · Rec Alexander 64
3Sep 19Abilene ChristianL 39-41Idaho lost 39-41 vs Abilene Christian. Chance to win started at 54%, low 1%, high 74%.0-40-1Pass Wood 326 · Rush Wood 37 · Rec Harste 151
4Bye week
5Oct 2Montana StateW 35-34Idaho won 35-34 vs Montana State. Chance to win started at 18%, low 3%, high better than 99%.1-41-1Pass Wood 315 · Rush Bias 46 · Rec Jezioro 147
6Oct 10@Weber StateL 27-38Idaho lost 27-38 at Weber State. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 46%.1-51-2Pass Wood 383 · Rush Wood 52 · Rec Harste 96
7Oct 17@MontanaW 42-35Idaho won 42-35 at Montana. Chance to win started at 10%, low 10%, high 91%.2-52-2Pass Wood 335 · Rush Wood 85 · Rec Harste 61
8Oct 24Southern UtahW 31-28Idaho won 31-28 vs Southern Utah. Chance to win started at 71%, low 45%, high better than 99%.3-53-2Pass Wood 151 · Rush Bias 89 · Rec Card 57
9Oct 31@Portland StateW 38-14Idaho won 38-14 at Portland State. Chance to win started at 69%, low 64%, high better than 99%.4-54-2Pass Wood 303 · Rush Golston 55 · Rec Jezioro 194
10Nov 7Eastern Washington5 pm ET64% to win
11Nov 14UC Davis4 pm ET74% to win
12Nov 21@Idaho State6 pm ET42% to win
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Idaho, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@Portland StateW 38-14———+0.29945.0%1.57Best defensive stand
Oct 24Southern UtahW 31-28———+0.07140.0%1.26One-score win
Oct 17@MontanaW 42-35———+0.44059.5%1.14Season-high EPA/play
Oct 10@Weber StateL 27-38———+0.12342.0%1.44
Oct 2Montana StateW 35-34———+0.29847.5%1.31One-score win
Sep 19Abilene ChristianL 39-41———+0.31051.5%1.20One-score loss
Sep 12LamarL 17-23———−0.17235.9%1.01Season-low EPA/play
Sep 3@UtahL 14-66225225:40+0.13733.9%1.26Defense's roughest night
Aug 28@Cal PolyL 34-38———+0.40238.3%1.66Most explosive
Season average (9 games)2252.0+0.21243.7%1.32

Ahead

The forecast
Offense strongDefense soft

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Next: Eastern Washingtonvs Eastern Washington · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Idaho has won four of its last five.

4-6 over the last 10, and won the last three.

Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 4-6

Range of outcomes · Idaho · 2026

Idaho’s most common regular-season record in our model is 6-6. Most outcomes (95%) land from 5-7 to 7-5.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 5%; 5 wins 29%; 6 wins 46%; 7 wins 20%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor5-7Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
Base6-6Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.

More in this tab

Worth watchingGames average 66 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5

Game feel66even gamescombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 13 in the Big Sky
Heart rate3-3white-knucklein one-score games (6 of 9)1st most one-score games of 13 in the Big Sky
Margin−4.4competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 13 in the Big Sky
Big plays1.32some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)5th most explosive of 13 in the Big Sky
Home crowd8,715avg attendance5th biggest crowds of 13 in the Big Sky

Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written July 2026

Idaho once commanded the I-AA postseason and left behind by Boise State's rise — now rebuilding in the Big Sky with the Kibbie Dome and Moscow's unwavering faith as anchors.

2026 Record4-5
Read the full program story ↓
Game dayOffense: Strong, defense: Soft
The experience

Idaho football is a program that once commanded the I-AA postseason, fell behind its in-state rival, could not sustain FBS economics, and now rebuilds in the Big Sky with one advantage: deep institutional memory and a city that believes in them.

Offense: StrongDefense: Soft
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster reload: Idaho

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable
Portal Additions3Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses7Primary pressure: ATH
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#122Recruiting class signal unavailable
EDGEin 2 - Darrell Gipson3.49out 1 - Matyus McLain2.00Upgrade
LBin 0out 2 - Dylan Layne3.50Starter Risk
ATHin 0out 2 - Hayden John3.49Starter Risk
CBin 1 - Ishaan Daniels3.00out 1 - Caleb Ricks3.40Even
Sin 0out 1 - Matt Irwin3.60Downgrade
Top commits

Top 3 signees

2013 class
★★★☆☆
Delency Parham
CB · Santa Barbara, CA
#252 national
★★☆☆☆
Armond Hawkins Jr.
CB · Rancho Cucamonga, CA
#1966 national
★★☆☆☆
Austin Rehkow
K · Veradale, WA
#2345 national
RivalsRival pulse: Boise State hopeful

Rival pulse

Boise State
Hopeful
+7
Idaho-Boise State

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Idaho

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site