Cal Poly beats Idaho 38-34
Cal Poly beat Idaho 38-34. Share this game
How it swung
The turning point: Grigsby 34-yd TD pass to McCoy, Cal Poly goes ahead 38-34 (Q4, 0:09). Cal Poly went from 13% to 91% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Cal Poly a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Cal Poly was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.
Down to a 10% chance in the fourth quarter, Cal Poly still won.
Up to a 90% chance in the fourth quarter, Idaho still lost.
Cal Poly 38-34 Idaho
Cal Poly wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Idaho 34-38 Cal PolyIdaho lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:55Wood 5-yd TD pass to Harste, ties it 24-24Cal Poly 73% → 48% (−25)
- 2Q4 6:10Wood 75-yd TD pass to Harste, Idaho goes ahead 31-24Cal Poly 41% → 17% (−24)
- 3Q4 1:03Forsman 40-yd field goal, Idaho goes ahead 34-31Cal Poly 31% → 10% (−21)
- 4Q4 0:094th and 8Grigsby 34-yd TD pass to McCoy, Cal Poly goes ahead 38-34Cal Poly 13% → 91% (+78)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:55Wood 5-yd TD pass to Harste, ties it 24-24Idaho 27% → 52% (+25)
- 2Q4 6:10Wood 75-yd TD pass to Harste, Idaho goes ahead 31-24Idaho 59% → 83% (+24)
- 3Q4 1:03Forsman 40-yd field goal, Idaho goes ahead 34-31Idaho 69% → 90% (+21)
- 4Q4 0:094th and 8Grigsby 34-yd TD pass to McCoy, Cal Poly goes ahead 38-34Idaho 87% → 9% (−78)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Idaho -5.5), at 51% for Cal Poly (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Cal Poly scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Idaho on 7 of its 11.
Cal Poly’s drives are teal, Idaho’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Idaho’s side
Idaho’s best moment: Wood 5-yd TD pass to Harste, ties it 24-24 (Q4 9:55). It lifted Idaho’s win chance by 25 points.
When fans got loud
Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.
- early
- middle
- late
- final stretch
How we know
We look at when the most different fans were posting during the game thread, then name the part of the game it falls in. Only threads with a clear peak and enough fans get a word.
The winner fell to 10%.
Box score
Cal Poly 38, Idaho 34
Cal Poly covered +5.5 by 9.5. The total, 72, went over 53.5.
Idaho leaders
- Passing Joshua Wood 18 of 25, 363 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Ferrari Miller 12 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Joshua Wood 11 for 42 yds
- Receiving Tony Harste 9 for 180 yds, 2 TD; Ryan Jezioro 3 for 93 yds
Cal Poly leaders
- Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 26 of 35, 319 yds, 4 TD
- Rushing Jaden Green 15 for 71 yds; Anthony Grigsby Jr. 14 for 62 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Tayvion McCoy 10 for 170 yds, 1 TD; Fidel Tau Pitts 5 for 70 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Idaho · 4-8
Rated 171st in our preseason ratings.
L 16-37 vs Idaho State #135 of 667
lost by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 20-23 @ Sacramento State #104 of 667
lost by 3 as a 7-point underdog
L 14-28 vs UC Davis #105 of 667
lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 35-32 @ Northern Arizona #169 of 667
won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog
W 45-6 vs Portland State #255 of 667
won by 39 as a 21.5-point favorite
L 14-21 @ Eastern Washington #192 of 667
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 33-49 vs Northern Colorado #193 of 667
lost by 16 as an 18.5-point favorite
L 30-41 @ Montana #108 of 667
lost by 11 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 28-31 @ San José State #114 of 667
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 20-6 vs Utah Tech #221 of 667
won by 14 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 37-30 vs St. Thomas (MN) #185 of 667
won by 7 as a 21.5-point favorite
L 10-13 @ Washington State #105 of 667
lost by 3 as a 16.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Cal Poly · 4-8
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings.
W 43-34 vs Eastern Washington #192 of 667
won by 9 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 27-35 @ Northern Arizona #146 of 667
lost by 8 as an 11.5-point underdog
L 17-27 @ Idaho State #181 of 667
lost by 10 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 35-40 vs Portland State #249 of 667
lost by 5 as an 18-point favorite
L 17-34 vs Montana State #66 of 667
lost by 17 as a 21.5-point underdog
L 9-28 @ Montana #100 of 667
lost by 19 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 27-34 vs UC Davis #109 of 667
W 32-24 @ Sacramento State #130 of 667
won by 8 as an 18-point underdog
L 17-35 @ Stephen F. Austin #134 of 667
lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 56-7 vs Western Oregon #338 of 667
L 9-63 @ UtahTop 25 #36 of 667
lost by 54 as a 42.5-point underdog
W 41-17 @ San Diego #168 of 667
won by 24 as a 1.5-point underdog
The series
Idaho leads the series 5-0
5 meetings since 1996 · Idaho has won the last 5
- 2024Idaho 34-29
- 2023Idaho 42-14
- 2019Idaho 21-9
- 2007Idaho 20-13
- 1996Idaho 38-33
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Cal Poly’s chances here.
Idaho favored by 5.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Idaho by 5.5, on the usual path until 0:09 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Idaho.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +3.5 → +5.5 · Total: 55.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Cal Poly is worth +6.0 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.
33% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 46 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 812 miles to get here.