The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Hawai'i 19%, Central Michigan 22%, Toledo 36%
Win out 1% · expect 0.8 of 3 more wins
Sacramento State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Toledo 36%, Central Michigan 22%, Hawai'i 19%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.
Standing12th in the Mid-American · 1-5 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jackson Sharman 1,374 · Rushing Isaiah Ene 410 · Receiving Matthew Coleman 492 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #131 | #92 | +9.5✗ −1.5 | @Eastern Michigan | L 17-28 131 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Conklin 222 · Rush Ene 44 · Rec Smith Jr. 86 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #131 | #253 | −38.5✓ +13.5 | Mississippi Valley State | W 52-0 123 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Sharman 247 · Rush Swinney 58 · Rec Coleman 141 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #130 | #51 | +17.5✗ −28.5 | @Fresno State | L 3-49 128 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Sharman 150 · Rush Curtis 48 · Rec Smith Jr. 66 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #130 | #70 | +26.5✓ +5.5 | North Dakota State | L 10-31 126 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Sharman 238 · Rush Rhaney 38 · Rec Coleman 95 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #148 | #165 | +6✗ −23 | Massachusetts | L 6-35 130 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass Sharman 221 · Rush Swinney 35 · Rec Brown 61 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #180 | #153 | +9.5✗ −18.5 | @Bowling Green | L 10-38 121 | 1-5 | 0-3 | Pass Sharman 145 · Rush Ene 46 · Rec Coleman 85 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #202 | #64 | +17.5✗ −23.5 | Ohio | L 7-48 116 | 1-6 | 0-4 | Pass Salazar 71 · Rush Ene 59 · Rec Shabazz 46 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #239 | #157 | +14.5✗ −2.5 | @Ball State | L 17-34 128 | 1-7 | 0-5 | Pass Sharman 187 · Rush Ene 57 · Rec Wilson 89 |
| 9 | Oct 30 | #251 | #149 | +7.5✓ +28.5 | Kent State | W 31-10 129 | 2-7 | 1-5 | Pass Sharman 117 · Rush Ene 107 · Rec Smith Jr. 40 |
| 10 | Nov 4 | #218 | #39 | +25.5 | Toledo | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network36% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 11 | #211 | #129 | @Central Michigan | time TBA · ESPNU22% to win | ||||
| 12 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 13 | Nov 29 | @Hawai'i | time TBA19% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Sacramento State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Sacramento State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | Kent State | W 31-10 | 278 | 1 | 34:47 | -0.036 | 31.9% | 1.25 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 24 | @Ball State | L 17-34 | 266 | 1 | 26:05 | -0.118 | 27.1% | 1.32 | |
| Oct 17 | Ohio | L 7-48 | 267 | 1 | 26:49 | -0.154 | 30.2% | 1.24 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | @Bowling Green | L 10-38 | 215 | 1 | 28:50 | -0.140 | 39.1% | 1.01 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | Massachusetts | L 6-35 | 323 | 3 | 31:52 | -0.120 | 44.3% | 0.66 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 19 | North Dakota State | L 10-31 | 328 | 3 | 29:30 | -0.135 | 41.8% | 1.13 | |
| Sep 12 | @Fresno State | L 3-49 | 262 | 1 | 28:47 | -0.191 | 40.3% | 0.89 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Mississippi Valley State | W 52-0 | 453 | 2 | 33:08 | +0.339 | 47.2% | 1.32 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Eastern Michigan | L 17-28 | 268 | 2 | 27:32 | -0.077 | 34.4% | 1.03 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 296 | 1.7 | -0.070 | 37.4% | 1.10 | ||||
Sacramento State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Sacramento State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 40%; 3 wins 44%; 4 wins 14%; 5 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Sacramento State is the California state school that built a Big Sky dynasty — three titles in four years — then bet everything on an $18 million FBS leap to the MAC, the most ambitious program build in the history of a city that Sacramento considers its own.
Sac State fans believe the Sacramento market, a $57M NIL base, and a new stadium are exactly what Power programs take for granted — and that the Hornets are building it themselves, from scratch…
Sacramento State is the Big Sky dynasty -- three titles in four years under Troy Taylor -- that bet its institutional future on an $18M FBS leap to the Mid-American Conference in 2026, backed by a new 25,000-seat stadium and a $57M NIL collective, after the NCAA denied its bid to go independent and a Conference USA deal fell through.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
More
1Sacramento State's 7-5 record marks a winning start to its FBS leap, but the fanbase's identity shift and $18M stadium investment raise questions about sustaining Big Sky dominance in the Mid-American Conference.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Sacramento State · 2026