CFB Zeitgeist Score
11
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 24th percentile.
Matthew Coleman
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
131 REC YDS · 20 REC · 1 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Sacramento State
2025San José State
2026Sacramento State
WR · SAN JOSÉ STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Matthew Coleman
- 3
- #14
- 6-0 | 171 lb
- Carson, CA
Heisman Heat
#3793
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR04 · Rotational
Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025+10%
Modest growth (10%) across the multi-season window.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
San José State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | San José State -> Sacramento State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Matthew Coleman
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Matthew Coleman
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving TDs
1
count
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #402 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 24th
Why it matters
#402 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 1 TDs on 20 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 1 (24th)
MODERATE · n=20 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Yards per reception#521 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#528 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 6 vs New Mexico — 1 receiving_tds
Result W 35-28
The week the volume broke through — stacked 1 td vs New Mexico.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 8g
131Rec yards
20Receptions
1Rec TDs
Per game
16.4Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
212.9Rec yards
32Receptions
2Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 131): needs 113.8/game over remaining 5.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 131): needs 173.8/game over remaining 5.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 20): needs 8/game over remaining 5.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 20): needs 12/game over remaining 5.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 1.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 1.8/game over remaining 5.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Matthew Coleman's story is about how role and output meet each other. For San José State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
20 63rd
YDS
131 49th
YPR
6.6 11th
TD
1 64th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 8 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 14-16vs Central Michigan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 5 | L 29-30@ Stanford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 6 | W 35-28vs New Mexico | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 | 11 | |
| Wk 7 | L 28-35@ Wyoming | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 | 9 | Season-high 40 yds |
| Wk 8 | L 25-30@ Utah State | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 10 | W 45-38vs Hawai'i | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 11 | L 16-26vs Air Force | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-55@ Nevada | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Total | 20 | 131 | 5.9 | 1 | 13 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023San José State7-6HC: Brent Brennan · Balanced, slow tempo
2025San José State3-9HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Pass-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | 20 | 131 | 6.5 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | San José State | 12 | 119 | 9.9 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 32 | 250 | 7.8 | 1 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | San José State | -- | -- | -- | 137 | 1 |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | -- | -- | -- | 137 | 1 |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 20 | #417/1110 | 63rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 131 | #568/1107 | 49th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #396/1111 | 64th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 6.6 | #981/1106 | 11th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 7.5% | #654/1137 | 43rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 13 | #899/1105 | 19th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 8.1% | #366/1137 | 68th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.1% | #449/1137 | 61st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 4.9% | #526/1137 | 54th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 4.7% | #519/1137 | 54th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 3.5% | #604/1137 | 47th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 3.2% | #667/1137 | 41st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 8 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 1.8 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 0.2 |
| Road4g | 3.2 | 20.8 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 2.0 | 14.0 | 6.7 | 0.5 |
| Losses6g | 2.7 | 17.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 2.8 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 2.2 | 15.8 | 6.8 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
11Below cohort
Concern: long catch (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Matthew ColemanSan José StateMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 57% simAaron TurnerRice· 50% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 49% sim
Receptions
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Yards / catch
Long catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Lyndon Ravare’s 2025 season.
Lyndon Ravare
84%match
#2
Leyton Smithson
76%
#3
Willie McCoy
76%
#4
Jalin Hyatt
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 10
76%
#5
Talik Keaton
All-Conference USA
70%
Matches Lyndon on
TD rate
Total EPA (college ability)
EPA / play (adj)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Taco Dowler’s path through Montana State.
Taco Dowler
100%match
#2
Rico Bussey Jr.
100%
#3
Brian Rowe Jr.
99%
#4
Caleb Burke
97%
#5
Landon Wolf
97%
Matches Taco on
Yards per reception
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Tre Wisner's junior season at Texas (2025).
Tre Wisner
81%match
#2
Bryson Graves
76%
#3
Anthony Woods
74%
#4
Keshawn Wicks
74%
#5
Keshawn King
73%
Matches Tre on
TD rate
Reception volume
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from Tre on
Weight (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ken Niumatalolo
Pass share
61.1%
486 pass / 310 run
Plays / game
66.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
2.1%
420 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Brent Brennan
San José State
2025era →
Ken Niumatalolo
San José State
Coaching transition mid-career: Brent Brennan → Ken Niumatalolo. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCarson, CA
Height6'0"
Weight171 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey14
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan José State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | San José State | WR3 | #3793 | #3616 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | San José State | WR3 | #1833 | #1811 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | San José State | WR3 | #4305 | #4136 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 6-0 | 171 lb | Carson, CA |
| 2024 | San José State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 6-0 | 171 lb | Carson, CA |
| 2023 | San José State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 6-0 | 171 lb | Carson, CA |
| 2022 | San José State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 6-0 | 171 lb | Carson, CA |