The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Ken Niumatalolo

Followed Brent Brennan. Ken Niumatalolo held San José State at Regional Program III for 3 seasons.

Peak, then fade
119–98
2007–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Our guys fought their resilience, lot of the things that I’ve seen in this team during camp doesn’t surprise me because I’ve seen some of that character that they have
Because of what Luke brings to the table, it opens up a whole different realm to what we can do offensively
Spartan Media Group2 days before the opener
We feel like we’re deeper at wide receiver
Spartan Media Group2 days before the opener
The first and foremost thing is we’ve got to do a better job of stopping the run
Spartan Media Group2 days before the opener
That’s far and away the best football team we play all year. Our guys were able to get open, we were able to protect them
Spartan Media Group3 days after the 26–42 opener
I just like who he is, he processes things really quickly
Spartan Media Group3 days before the opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 9th career season — faster than 5% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #630 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Navy, 16 seasons
+9.6
Regional Program II → Regional Program I.
San José State, 3 seasons (active)
−2.4
Regional Program III → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

10%20%30%40%50%60%Navy2007–2022– 0.1ptSan José State2024–2026▼ 12.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Navy9.4pt#141 of 258 · a typical amount
San José State12.5pt#78 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

17–13 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against David Cutcliffe.

Rivalry record
17–13
56.7% · 2 rivals
One-score games
51–39
56.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Buyout owed
$4,012,500
bigger than 38% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Air Force7–847%
Army10–567%
The toughest matchup
3 meetings, 2008–2013
’08 L’10 L’13 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–2 0.0%
Power Program
4–16 20.0%
National Program
16–33 32.7%
Regional Program
85–40 68.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.54
#17 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.05
#115 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now
San José Statecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program III
Ken Niumatalolo held San José State at Regional Program III for 3 seasons.

12th-best San José State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+1.4 pts
#107 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+9.1 pts
#68 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Brent Brennan (2017–2023).

Season202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record7–63–90–0
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#104#117#129
Style — pass rate
Pass rate63.260.950.7
Coordinators
OCCraig StutzmannCraig StutzmannCraig Stutzmann
DCDerrick OdumDerrick OdumBojay Filimoeatu
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense334796
Defense683054
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%60.155.144.0
Red-zone pass%63.754.857.1
4th-down go%opp. territory33.336.428.6
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
44
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
59
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-15
#75 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 218 lbs
across 36 of 44 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-6.0 lbs
#254 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#254 of 255 · less than most
Top states: CA (22), UT (5), WA (2), AZ (2), AL (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.2
position-weighted
Net
-4.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Robert McDaniel (QB) from UCLA
Biggest loss: Walker Eget (QB) to Duke
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
209 lbs
6′1″ avg · #484 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
197 lbs
5′9″ avg · #707 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
186 lbs
6′1″ avg · #668 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
229 lbs
6′3″ avg · #711 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
278 lbs
6′3″ avg · #780 of 779 · less than most
Linebacker
216 lbs
6′1″ avg · #758 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
187 lbs
6′0″ avg · #536 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Safety via the portal
86%
#7 of 218 stints
Buys Cornerback via the portal
80%
#19 of 236 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to South Florida 39–41 Hawaiʻi Bowl

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Nick Nash (2024)

AI Narratives — “San José State — stat check”.

10–15
2007–2022
Navycaretaker
Regional Program III → National Program III
Ken Niumatalolo moved Navy from Regional Program III to National Program III in 16 seasons.

10th-best Navy tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+25.7 pts
#21 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+5.9 pts
#79 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Brian Newberry (2023–2026).

Season2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Trend
Record & result
Record0–18–510–49–45–78–59–48–511–29–57–63–1011–23–74–84–8
PostseasonW bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlW CFP
Recruiting rank#107#112#91#88#106#123#125#106#130
Style — pass rate
Pass rate15.214.017.611.015.011.920.412.215.1
Coordinators
OCIvin JasperIvin JasperIvin JasperIvin JasperIvin JasperIvin JasperIvin JasperIvin Jasper
DCBuddy GreenDale PehrsonDale PehrsonDale PehrsonDale PehrsonBrian Newberry / Brian NorwoodBrian NewberryBrian NewberryBrian Newberry
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense82989882279674229
Defense35391301574604765
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%15.614.216.810.013.415.117.713.015.6
Red-zone pass%16.18.39.110.83.16.58.113.012.2
4th-down go%opp. territory47.145.556.551.150.051.950.034.352.8
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
0
 
Portal departures
11
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-11
#185 of 187 FBS stints
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
0.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
20.7
position-weighted
Net
-20.7
arrivals minus departures
Biggest loss: Devin Mathews (WR) to Wofford
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Buddy Green → Dale Pehrson · 2015
35th pct39th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Dale Pehrson → Brian Newberry / co-Brian Norwood · 2019
15th pct74th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brian Newberry / co-Brian Norwood → Brian Newberry · 2020
74th pct60th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
199 lbs
6′0″ avg · #710 of 767 · less than most
Running back
203 lbs
5′10″ avg · #567 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
199 lbs
6′1″ avg · #122 of 791 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
291 lbs
6′2″ avg · #764 of 779 · less than most
Linebacker
220 lbs
6′1″ avg · #705 of 772 · less than most
Safety
191 lbs
5′11″ avg · #290 of 346 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat San Diego State 17–16 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2015: Beat Pittsburgh 44–28 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2016: Lost to Louisiana Tech 45–48 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2017: Beat Virginia 49–7 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2019: Beat Kansas State 20–17 CFP

3 NFL Draft picks: Joe Cardona (2015), Keenan Reynolds (2016), Malcolm Perry (2020)

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