Northern Illinois at San José State
San José State (4‑5) hosts Northern Illinois (0‑8). The market has San José State favored by 10.5. The model gives San José State a 65% shot. Northern Illinois’s offense is at the 6th percentile on efficiency; San José State’s defense is at the 61st.
How they got here
Last three games
Northern Illinois · 0-8
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 198th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
San José State · 4-5
Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 133rd now, up 18 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against San José State, 61 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Northern Illinois’s EPA/play against San José State’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 6th percentile · San José State defense, 61st
Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against San José State’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 18th percentile · San José State defense, 79th
Northern Illinois’s explosive plays against San José State’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 44th percentile · San José State defense, 89th
What’s at stake
Northern Illinois
- A win would be one of Northern Illinois’s biggest of the season — a 65-spot gap in the power ratings.
San José State
- San José State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 77% to get there with a win here, 34% with a loss.
- San José State is the Mountain West program whose 2020 7-1 + Mountain West championship under Brent Brennan + CEFCU Stadium identity define what Silicon-Valley-G5-football looks like.
The series
Northern Illinois leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 1995 · Northern Illinois won the last meeting
- 1995Northern Illinois 18-17
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Northern Illinois
The chip · vs the blue bloodsDeKalb walked into one of the sport's cathedrals as a four-touchdown underdog and walked out with the win — and the national story was the giant who lost, not the Huskies who won. The fanbase keeps the receipts: the scoreboard said Northern Illinois.
San José State
The chip · vs the national mediaSpartan fans know the deal: they're the football program nobody outside San José thinks about, in a valley that worships startups, not Saturdays. They'll remind you they won a Mountain West title when the whole sport was looking elsewhere, and that showing up at all is the loyalty test.
What this game touches
The 2025 unraveling. After the high of the 2020 title and a bowl-level baseline, San José State went 3-9 (2-6 Mountain West) in 2025 — Ken Niumatalolo's second year — a season defined by late-game collapses and missed kicks, even as quarterback Walker Eget threw 275 passes without an interception and a fanbase wondered how it came apart so fast.
Best players
Northern Illinois
- Jack Murray (LB) · 59 tackles
- Kyon Conyers (S) · 55 tackles
- Brady Kerperin (LB) · 55 tackles
San José State
- Dylan Lee (LB) · 78 tackles
- Naseri Danielson (LB) · 63 tackles
- Caleb Womack (CB) · 57 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
San José State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (95th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 65%
- Line · 80%
- San José State fans · 95th
- Northern Illinois fans · 98th
San José State favored by 10.5 · Total 51.5
San José State by 10.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
San José State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at CEFCU Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 98, noon Saturdays 92
Northern Illinois at San José State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 4 pm ET · CEFCU Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at CEFCU Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 93, 7:30 pm 98.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 98, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
San José State is worth +3.3 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 33rd percentile.
56% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (24-19 home, 15-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.4 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,778 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
San José State
- Wk 5Wat Hawai'i20-16
- Wk 6Lvs Wyoming13-16
- Wk 7Wat UTEP24-11
- Wk 8Lat Nevada13-28
- Wk 9Lvs New Mexico16-21
Northern Illinois
- Wk 4Lat Georgia State14-35
- Wk 6Lvs Air Force7-28
- Wk 7Lat Wyoming23-41
- Wk 8Lvs Hawai'i21-56
- Wk 9Lat UNLV24-31
Power rating by week
San José State is rated 4.0 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Northern Illinois.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −11.5 → −10.5 · Total: 50.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- San José State7th2-3
- Northern Illinois10th0-4