The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Youngstown State 29%, South Dakota 38%, North Dakota 43%
Win out 5% · expect 1.1 of 3 more wins
Illinois State's chance to win each game left, from our model: North Dakota 43%, Youngstown State 29%, South Dakota 38%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Beckham Pellant 942 · Rushing Victor Dawson 437 · Receiving Dylan Lord 438 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | St. Francis (IL) | W 76-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Western Illinois | W 41-10 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Pellant 132 · Rush Kwiatkowski 76 · Rec Mailander 72 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Northern Illinois | W 28-24 129 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Roy 146 · Rush Dawson 46 · Rec Lord 62 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Eastern Illinois | W 49-13 | 4-0 | 0-0 | Pass Roy 172 · Rush Lofton 62 · Rec Lord 77 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Northern Iowa | L 21-28 | 4-1 | 0-1 | Pass Roy 193 · Rush Lofton 72 · Rec Lord 88 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | South Dakota State | L 14-31 | 4-2 | 0-2 | Pass Roy 141 · Rush Dawson 67 · Rec Willis 61 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Southern Illinois | W 35-14 | 5-2 | 1-2 | Pass Pellant 191 · Rush Dawson 82 · Rec Mailander 90 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Indiana State | W 17-10 | 6-2 | 2-2 | Pass Pellant 174 · Rush Dawson 57 · Rec Loss 58 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Murray State | W 35-14 | 7-2 | 3-2 | Pass Pellant 248 · Rush Dawson 99 · Rec Loss 117 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @North Dakota | 2 pm ET43% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Youngstown State | 12 pm ET29% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | South Dakota | 1 pm ET38% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Illinois State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Murray State | W 35-14 | — | — | — | +0.156 | 48.2% | 1.10 | |
| Oct 24 | Indiana State | W 17-10 | — | — | — | −0.176 | 41.7% | 0.92 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @Southern Illinois | W 35-14 | — | — | — | +0.187 | 36.4% | 1.38 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | South Dakota State | L 14-31 | — | — | — | −0.245 | 36.4% | 0.79 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Northern Iowa | L 21-28 | — | — | — | +0.025 | 48.1% | 0.88 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | Eastern Illinois | W 49-13 | — | — | — | +0.460 | 57.7% | 1.30 | Blowout win |
| Sep 12 | @Northern Illinois | W 28-24 | 254 | 2 | 31:16 | −0.030 | 40.6% | 1.03 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Western Illinois | W 41-10 | — | — | — | +0.341 | 47.0% | 1.37 | Blowout win |
| Aug 29 | St. Francis (IL) | W 76-0 | — | — | — | +0.751 | 70.7% | 1.25 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 254 | 2.0 | +0.163 | 47.4% | 1.11 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · Illinois State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 25%; 8 wins 45%; 9 wins 26%; 10 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MVFC teams the same season
Illinois State is 7-2 and plays at North Dakota next.
Illinois State is 7-2 and plays at North Dakota next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Illinois State · 2026