Illinois State at North Dakota Prediction & Odds

Away

Illinois State

7-2 Won 3 straight

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North Dakota

6-4 Lost 2 straight

Sat, Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET · Alerus CenterAdd to calendar: Google · other

North Dakota (6‑4) hosts Illinois State (7‑2). No market line yet; the model calls it close to even.

How they got here

Last three games

Illinois State · 7-2

Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 111th now, up 15 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 35-14 vs Murray State No. 264 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 29.5-point favorite

W 17-10 vs Indiana State No. 211 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 22.5-point favorite

W 35-14 @ Southern Illinois No. 183 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 7-point favorite

L 14-31 vs South Dakota State No. 92 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 21-28 @ Northern Iowa No. 169 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois No. 241 of 668 teams

won by 36 as a 29.5-point favorite

W 28-24 @ Northern Illinois No. 103 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 41-10 @ Western Illinois No. 201 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)

Last three games

North Dakota · 6-4

Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 98th now, up 25 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 11-point win over South Dakota State as a 14-point underdog.

L 28-31 @ Youngstown State No. 87 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 23-26 @ South Dakota No. 90 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog

W 21-10 vs South Dakota State No. 86 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 14-point underdog

L 17-24 @ Northern Iowa No. 162 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 55-28 vs Murray State No. 263 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 37.5-point favorite

W 42-35 @ Indiana State No. 200 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 7-34 @ Nebraska No. 33 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 27.5-point underdog

W 47-23 @ Portland State No. 239 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 25.5-point favorite

W 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN) No. 172 of 668 teams

won by 36 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 42-21 vs Long Island University No. 164 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 27.5-point favorite

What’s at stake

Illinois State

Illinois State is 2 games back in MVFC with 2 left to make it up.
Illinois State is coming off a 21-point win.

See this week’s biggest postseason implications ›

The series

North Dakota leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 1979 · Illinois State won the last meeting

2024Illinois State 35-13
2023North Dakota 22-21
2021North Dakota 14-7
1979North Dakota 20-0

Home field

North Dakota is worth +10.4 points (±6.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

50% at home, 14% on the road against FBS opponents (3-3 home, 2-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.0 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 649 miles to get here.

Week by week

North Dakota

Wk 5Wvs Murray State55-28
Wk 6Lat Northern Iowa17-24
Wk 7Wvs South Dakota State21-10
Wk 8Lat South Dakota23-26
Wk 9Lat Youngstown State28-31

Illinois State

Wk 4Lat Northern Iowa21-28
Wk 5Lvs South Dakota State14-31
Wk 7Wat Southern Illinois35-14
Wk 8Wvs Indiana State17-10
Wk 9Wvs Murray State35-14

Power rating by week

North Dakota is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

North Dakota6th3-3
Illinois State4th3-2