The rest of the season
Two real tests left: South Dakota 17%, South Dakota State 21%
Win out 3% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Northern Iowa's chance to win each game left, from our model: South Dakota State 21%, South Dakota 17%, Murray State 95%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jaxon Dailey 1,674 · Rushing Xavier Terrell 332 · Receiving Brady McCullough 281 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Eastern Washington | L 24-34 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Dailey 287 · Rush Hughes 23 · Rec Norman 61 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Drake | W 56-14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Dailey 242 · Rush Kamara 49 · Rec Ellis-Lahey 59 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Iowa | L 0-55 122 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Dailey 91 · Rush Kamara 21 · Rec Price 32 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Illinois State | W 28-21 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Dailey 217 · Rush Terrell 80 · Rec Hughes 80 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | North Dakota | W 24-17 | 3-2 | 2-0 | Pass Dailey 81 · Rush Collins 64 · Rec Hughes 31 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Youngstown State | L 22-35 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Pass Dailey 318 · Rush Gordon 45 · Rec Black 74 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Southern Illinois | L 17-20 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Dailey 240 · Rush Terrell 101 · Rec Hughes 52 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Indiana State | W 45-23 | 4-4 | 3-2 | Pass Dailey 198 · Rush Collins 107 · Rec McCullough 83 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | South Dakota State | 2 pm ET21% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @South Dakota | 2 pm ET17% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Murray State | 2 pm ET95% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Northern Iowa, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Indiana State | W 45-23 | — | — | — | +0.351 | 45.2% | 1.59 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | @Southern Illinois | L 17-20 | — | — | — | +0.043 | 33.8% | 1.46 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Youngstown State | L 22-35 | — | — | — | +0.184 | 38.9% | 1.38 | |
| Oct 10 | North Dakota | W 24-17 | — | — | — | −0.344 | 28.3% | 0.92 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Illinois State | W 28-21 | — | — | — | +0.398 | 50.9% | 1.46 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Iowa | L 0-55 | 155 | 2 | 27:45 | −0.372 | 26.2% | 0.74 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Drake | W 56-14 | — | — | — | +0.349 | 49.3% | 1.29 | Blowout win |
| Sep 5 | @Eastern Washington | L 24-34 | — | — | — | +0.148 | 50.0% | 1.14 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 155 | 2.0 | +0.094 | 40.3% | 1.25 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Northern Iowa · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 3%; 5 wins 63%; 6 wins 30%; 7 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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Northern Iowa is the Panthers in transition — Todd Stepsis took over after Mark Farley's retirement, and a 3-9 season tests the fanbase's faith in the next era.
Range of outcomes · Northern Iowa · 2026