The rest of the season
Two real tests left: South Dakota State 3%, Southern Illinois 37%
Win out 1% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Indiana State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Southern Illinois 37%, Murray State 85%, South Dakota State 3%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Brady Allen 1,296 · Rushing Aaron Ball 394 · Receiving Jayden Reed 696 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Southeast Missouri State | L 21-23 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Owens 288 · Rush Ball 33 · Rec Wuest 67 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | @Purdue | L 19-44 120 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Allen 117 · Rush Owens 60 · Rec Reed 73 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Eastern Illinois | W 42-35 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Owens 284 · Rush Owens 98 · Rec Wuest 142 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Valparaiso | W 39-16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Owens 115 · Rush Ball 182 · Rec Ellis 63 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | North Dakota | L 35-42 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Allen 270 · Rush Ball 50 · Rec Reed 129 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @South Dakota | L 14-44 | 2-4 | 0-2 | Pass Allen 233 · Rush McCool 41 · Rec French 63 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Youngstown State | L 24-57 | 2-5 | 0-3 | Pass Allen 299 · Rush McCool 38 · Rec Reed 122 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Illinois State | L 10-17 | 2-6 | 0-4 | Pass Allen 279 · Rush McCool 84 · Rec Reed 98 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Northern Iowa | L 23-45 | 2-7 | 0-5 | Pass Owens 313 · Rush Owens 122 · Rec Reed 138 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Southern Illinois | 6 pm ET37% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Murray State | 1 pm ET85% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @South Dakota State | 3 pm ET3% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Indiana State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Northern Iowa | L 23-45 | — | — | — | +0.031 | 48.2% | 1.13 | Best success rate |
| Oct 24 | @Illinois State | L 10-17 | — | — | — | −0.309 | 40.0% | 0.68 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Youngstown State | L 24-57 | — | — | — | +0.147 | 25.4% | 2.18 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | @South Dakota | L 14-44 | — | — | — | −0.176 | 35.6% | 0.77 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | North Dakota | L 35-42 | — | — | — | +0.074 | 29.5% | 1.92 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | Valparaiso | W 39-16 | — | — | — | +0.220 | 42.1% | 1.64 | |
| Sep 12 | @Eastern Illinois | W 42-35 | — | — | — | +0.374 | 47.9% | 1.46 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 4 | @Purdue | L 19-44 | 284 | 1 | 22:38 | +0.008 | 27.1% | 2.36 | Most explosive |
| Aug 29 | Southeast Missouri State | L 21-23 | — | — | — | +0.188 | 33.3% | 1.78 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 284 | 1.0 | +0.062 | 36.6% | 1.55 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last five.
Range of outcomes · Indiana State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 9%; 3 wins 58%; 4 wins 32%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MVFC teams the same season
Indiana State is the Sycamores grinding through a rebuild under Curt Mallory — a program tied for last in the Missouri Valley but fighting for the next winning phase.
Indiana State is the Sycamores grinding through a rebuild under Curt Mallory — a program tied for last in the Missouri Valley but fighting for the next winning phase.
Range of outcomes · Indiana State · 2026