North Dakota beats Indiana State 42-35

Team pages: North Dakota · Indiana State

North Dakota4-142
Indiana State2-335Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Memorial Stadium, Terre Haute, Ind. · Crowd 2,765ESPN+

North Dakota beat Indiana State 42-35.

We had North Dakota favored. It won.

Next: North Dakota beat Murray State 55-28, Sat Oct 3

Next: Indiana State lost to South Dakota 44-14, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.

Favored the whole way: North Dakota never fell below 80%.

Indiana State never had better than a 20% chance.

FinalNorth Dakota 42-35 Indiana StateNorth Dakota wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfNorth DakotaWon42-35Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfNorth DakotaWon42-35Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfNorth DakotaLowest 0%Lost35-42Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfNorth DakotaLowest 0%Lost35-42Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

North Dakota’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Dakota -17.5), at 84% for North Dakota (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

North Dakota scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Indiana State on 5 of its 15.

North Dakota’s drives are teal, Indiana State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Dakota: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownIndiana State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 61PuntIndiana State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 74PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Indiana State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 59 yards out to 0TouchdownIndiana State: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntIndiana State: Punt, from 66 yards out to 63PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownIndiana State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Indiana State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 38FumbleNorth Dakota: Punt, from 62 yards out to 56PuntIndiana State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 78PuntNorth Dakota: Missed field goal, from 61 yards out to 22Missed FGIndiana State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 81PuntNorth Dakota: Fumble, from 52 yards out to 43FumbleIndiana State: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntIndiana State: Punt, from 57 yards out to 53PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Indiana State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 70PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownIndiana State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownIndiana State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntIndiana State: Turned over on downs, from 89 yards out to 66DownsNorth Dakota: End of game, from 34 yards out to 23End of game

Box score

North Dakota 42, Indiana State 35

Indiana State covered +17.5 by 10.5. The total, 77, went over 54.5.

North Dakota leaders

  • Passing Jerry Kaminski 33 of 48, 381 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Jerry Kaminski 18 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Griffin Broderick 11 for 39 yds
  • Receiving Deng Deng 6 for 101 yds; Cameron Weir 4 for 64 yds, 2 TD

Indiana State leaders

  • Passing Brady Allen 18 of 33, 270 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Aaron Ball 16 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Hayes 2 for 4 yds
  • Receiving Jayden Reed 8 for 129 yds, 2 TD; Keshon Singleton 3 for 81 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

North Dakota · 3-1

Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 110th now, up 13 spots.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-34 @ Nebraska #33 of 668

lost by 27 as a 27.5-point underdog

North Dakota lost 7-34 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 47-23 @ Portland State #239 of 668

won by 24 as a 25.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 47-23 at Portland State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

W 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN) #172 of 668

won by 36 as a 28.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 42-21 vs Long Island University #164 of 668

won by 21 as a 27.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 42-21 vs Long Island University. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Last 4 games

Indiana State · 2-2

Rated 219th in our preseason ratings, 205th now, up 14 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 39-16 vs Valparaiso #253 of 668

won by 23 as a 22.5-point favorite

Indiana State won 39-16 vs Valparaiso. Chance to win started at 96%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

W 42-35 @ Eastern Illinois #234 of 668

won by 7 as a 3-point favorite

Indiana State won 42-35 at Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 49%, low 47%, high better than 99%.

L 19-44 @ Purdue #117 of 668

lost by 25 as a 35.5-point underdog

Indiana State lost 19-44 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 21-23 vs Southeast Missouri State #232 of 668

lost by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

Indiana State lost 21-23 vs Southeast Missouri State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 16%, high 69%.

Week by week

Indiana State

Wk 1: L 21-23 vs Southeast Missouri State▼2Southeast M…Wk 1: L 19-44 at Purdue▼25PurdueWk 2: W 42-35 at Eastern Illinois▲7E. IllinoisWk 3: W 39-16 vs Valparaiso▲23Valparaiso
  • Wk 1Lvs Southeast Missouri State21-23
  • Wk 1Lat Purdue19-44
  • Wk 2Wat Eastern Illinois42-35
  • Wk 3Wvs Valparaiso39-16

North Dakota

Wk 1: W 42-21 vs Long Island University▲21Long Island…Wk 1: W 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN)▲36St. Thomas…Wk 2: W 47-23 at Portland State▲24Portland St.Wk 3: L 7-34 at Nebraska▼27Nebraska
  • Wk 1Wvs Long Island University42-21
  • Wk 1Wvs St. Thomas (MN)62-26
  • Wk 2Wat Portland State47-23
  • Wk 3Lat Nebraska7-34

Power rating by week

North Dakota is rated 5.4 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-7-11Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Indiana StateNorth Dakota

The series

North Dakota leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 2022 · North Dakota won the last meeting

  • 2025North Dakota 46-17
  • 2024Indiana State 35-31
  • 2023North Dakota 36-33
  • 2022North Dakota 42-7

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Indiana State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 28%Line · 8%North DakotaIndiana State

North Dakota favored by 17.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota by 17.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward North Dakota.

opened +16.5now +17.5

The total fell 3 points.

opened 57.5now 54.5

Spread: +16.5 → +17.5 · Total: 57.5 → 54.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Indiana State is worth +8.2 points (±8.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

0% at home, 8% on the road against FBS opponents (0-4 home, 1-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.4 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 758 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.