Illinois State beats Indiana State 17-10

Team pages: Indiana State · Illinois State

Indiana State2-610
Illinois State6-217Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Hancock Stadium, Normal, Ill.ESPN+

Illinois State beat Indiana State 17-10.

We had Illinois State favored. It won.

Next: Indiana State at Northern Iowa, Sat Oct 31 · 2:00 PM ET

Next: Illinois State vs Murray State, Sat Oct 31 · 2:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois State a 93% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois State was a 22.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.

Favored the whole way: Illinois State never fell below 80%.

Indiana State never had better than a 19% chance.

17 unansweredIllinois State · Q2 10:04
FinalIllinois State 17-10 Indiana StateIllinois State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfIllinois StateWon17-10Scores17 unanswered
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfIllinois StateWon17-10Scores17 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfIllinois StateLost10-17Scores17 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfIllinois StateLost10-17Scores17 unanswered

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Illinois State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Illinois State -22.5), at 96% for Illinois State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Illinois State scored on 2 of its 11 drives; Indiana State on 2 of its 13.

Illinois State’s drives are teal, Indiana State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Indiana State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntIllinois State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntIndiana State: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 5Field goalIndiana State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntIllinois State: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Indiana State: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 54Interception TDIndiana State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 59FumbleIndiana State: Missed field goal, from 28 yards out to 12Missed FGIllinois State: Interception, from 80 yards out to 49InterceptionIndiana State: Fumble, from 51 yards out to 61FumbleIllinois State: Punt, from 39 yards out to 39PuntIndiana State: End of half, from 80 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Illinois State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntIndiana State: Uncategorized, from 69 yards out to 11UncategorizedIllinois State: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 37DownsIndiana State: Turned over on downs, from 63 yards out to 19DownsIllinois State: Punt, from 81 yards out to 51PuntIndiana State: Uncategorized, from 84 yards out to 76UncategorizedQ4Illinois State: Interception, from 64 yards out to 46InterceptionIndiana State: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 5Field goalIllinois State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntIndiana State: Turned over on downs, from 87 yards out to 20DownsIllinois State: Uncategorized, from 80 yards out to 82Uncategorized

Box score

Illinois State 17, Indiana State 10

Indiana State covered +22.5 by 15.5. The total, 27, stayed under 57.5.

Indiana State leaders

  • Passing Brady Allen 25 of 45, 279 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Max McCool 19 for 84 yds; Zechariah Prince 6 for 8 yds
  • Receiving Jayden Reed 9 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Keshon Singleton 6 for 81 yds

Illinois State leaders

  • Passing Beckham Pellant 16 of 32, 174 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Victor Dawson 21 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Seth Glatz 9 for 42 yds
  • Receiving Ethan Loss 5 for 58 yds; Ian Willis 4 for 44 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Indiana State · 2-5

Rated 219th in our preseason ratings, 226th now.

Three straight losses.

L 24-57 vs Youngstown State No. 100 of 668 teams

lost by 33 as a 19.5-point underdog

Indiana State lost 24-57 vs Youngstown State. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 25%.

L 14-44 @ South Dakota No. 109 of 668 teams

lost by 30 as a 16.5-point underdog

Indiana State lost 14-44 at South Dakota. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 15%.

L 35-42 vs North Dakota No. 114 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 17.5-point underdog

Indiana State lost 35-42 vs North Dakota. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 20%.

W 39-16 vs Valparaiso No. 253 of 668 teams

won by 23 as a 22.5-point favorite

Indiana State won 39-16 vs Valparaiso. Chance to win started at 96%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

W 42-35 @ Eastern Illinois No. 234 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 3-point favorite

Indiana State won 42-35 at Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 49%, low 47%, high better than 99%.

L 19-44 @ Purdue No. 117 of 668 teams

lost by 25 as a 35.5-point underdog

Indiana State lost 19-44 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 21-23 vs Southeast Missouri State No. 232 of 668 teams

lost by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

Indiana State lost 21-23 vs Southeast Missouri State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 16%, high 69%.

Last three games

Illinois State · 5-2

Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 118th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 35-14 @ Southern Illinois No. 183 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 7-point favorite

Illinois State won 35-14 at Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 62%, low 52%, high better than 99%.

L 14-31 vs South Dakota State No. 92 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

Illinois State lost 14-31 vs South Dakota State. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 62%.

L 21-28 @ Northern Iowa No. 169 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 19.5-point favorite

Illinois State lost 21-28 at Northern Iowa. Chance to win started at 87%, low under 1%, high 87%.

W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois No. 241 of 668 teams

won by 36 as a 29.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 28-24 @ Northern Illinois No. 103 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 28-24 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 48%, low 23%, high 95%.

W 41-10 @ Western Illinois No. 201 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 41-10 at Western Illinois. Chance to win started at 88%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)

Week by week

Illinois State

Wk 2: W 28-24 at Northern Illinois▲4N. Illin…Wk 3: W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois▲36E. Illin…Wk 4: L 21-28 at Northern Iowa▼7N. IowaWk 5: L 14-31 vs South Dakota State▼17S. Dakot…Wk 7: W 35-14 at Southern Illinois▲21S. Illin…
  • Wk 2Wat Northern Illinois28-24
  • Wk 3Wvs Eastern Illinois49-13
  • Wk 4Lat Northern Iowa21-28
  • Wk 5Lvs South Dakota State14-31
  • Wk 7Wat Southern Illinois35-14

Indiana State

Wk 2: W 42-35 at Eastern Illinois▲7E. Illin…Wk 3: W 39-16 vs Valparaiso▲23Valparai…Wk 4: L 35-42 vs North Dakota▼7N. DakotaWk 5: L 14-44 at South Dakota▼30S. DakotaWk 6: L 24-57 vs Youngstown State▼33Youngsto…
  • Wk 2Wat Eastern Illinois42-35
  • Wk 3Wvs Valparaiso39-16
  • Wk 4Lvs North Dakota35-42
  • Wk 5Lat South Dakota14-44
  • Wk 6Lvs Youngstown State24-57

Power rating by week

Illinois State is rated 7.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-6-11Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7Illinois StateIndiana State

The series

Illinois State leads the series 22-11

33 meetings since 1975 · Illinois State has won the last 4

Illinois State wonIndiana State won1975: Indiana State by 291976: Illinois State by 101977: Indiana State by 101978: Illinois State by 131979: Indiana State by 21980: Illinois State by 91981: Indiana State by 201982: Indiana State by 171983: Illinois State by 171984: Indiana State by 121985: Illinois State by 32003: Illinois State by 352004: Indiana State by 32005: Illinois State by 422006: Illinois State by 222007: Illinois State by 522008: Illinois State by 512009: Illinois State by 172010: Indiana State by 352011: Illinois State by 32012: Illinois State by 72013: Illinois State by 412014: Illinois State by 22015: Illinois State by 32016: Indiana State by 32017: Illinois State by 112018: Indiana State by 52019: Illinois State by 172021: Indiana State by 52022: Illinois State by 62023: Illinois State by 372024: Illinois State by 122025: Illinois State by 3219752025
  • 2025Illinois State 52-20
  • 2024Illinois State 31-19
  • 2023Illinois State 44-7
  • 2022Illinois State 27-21
  • 2021Indiana State 15-10

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Illinois State’s chances here.

50-50Model 93% · Line 97%Indiana StateIllinois State

Illinois State favored by 22.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Illinois State by 22.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 417 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Illinois State is worth −4.4 points (±6.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile.

14% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (1-6 home, 4-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.2 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 112 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.