The rest of the season
Three real tests left: South Dakota State 12%, North Dakota 15%, Indiana State 63%
Win out 1% · expect 0.9 of 3 more wins
Southern Illinois's chance to win each game left, from our model: Indiana State 63%, South Dakota State 12%, North Dakota 15%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing DJ Williams 1,449 · Rushing Chandler Chapman 570 · Receiving Kyle Thomas 551 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @West Florida | L 31-34 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Curry 168 · Rush Chapman 75 · Rec Middleton 60 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | @Samford | W 22-18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Curry 153 · Rush Chapman 133 · Rec Chapman 47 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Southeast Missouri State | W 34-20 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Williams 286 · Rush Chapman 71 · Rec Thomas 144 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Illinois | L 10-48 126 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Williams 182 · Rush Curry 22 · Rec Thomas 77 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Murray State | W 46-6 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Williams 217 · Rush Chapman 63 · Rec Quick 145 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Youngstown State | L 16-28 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Williams 288 · Rush Chapman 49 · Rec Thomas 155 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @South Dakota | L 10-31 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Williams 179 · Rush Chapman 86 · Rec Middleton 64 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Illinois State | L 14-35 | 3-5 | 1-3 | Pass Williams 166 · Rush Chapman 32 · Rec Thomas 61 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Northern Iowa | W 20-17 | 4-5 | 2-3 | Pass Williams 112 · Rush Williams 89 · Rec Dyson 31 |
| 9 | Bye week | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Indiana State | 6 pm ET63% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | South Dakota State | 2 pm ET12% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @North Dakota | 2 pm ET15% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Southern Illinois, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | Northern Iowa | W 20-17 | — | — | — | −0.179 | 35.7% | 1.25 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Illinois State | L 14-35 | — | — | — | −0.233 | 34.3% | 1.20 | |
| Oct 10 | @South Dakota | L 10-31 | — | — | — | +0.078 | 43.3% | 0.97 | |
| Oct 3 | Youngstown State | L 16-28 | — | — | — | −0.035 | 35.7% | 1.64 | |
| Sep 26 | @Murray State | W 46-6 | — | — | — | +0.216 | 53.5% | 0.78 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Illinois | L 10-48 | 257 | 1 | 34:06 | −0.243 | 31.9% | 1.21 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Southeast Missouri State | W 34-20 | — | — | — | +0.192 | 36.8% | 1.76 | |
| Sep 3 | @Samford | W 22-18 | — | — | — | +0.109 | 37.0% | 1.36 | One-score win |
| Aug 27 | @West Florida | L 31-34 | — | — | — | +0.122 | 35.8% | 1.85 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 257 | 1.0 | +0.003 | 38.2% | 1.34 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Southern Illinois · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 27%; 5 wins 56%; 6 wins 16%; 7 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MVFC teams the same season
Southern Illinois is 4-5 and plays at Indiana State next.
Southern Illinois is 4-5 and plays at Indiana State next.
Range of outcomes · Southern Illinois · 2026