The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Youngstown State 1%, Northern Iowa 5%, Indiana State 15%
Win out <1% · expect 0.2 of 3 more wins
Murray State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Youngstown State 1%, Indiana State 15%, Northern Iowa 5%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Collin Shannon 724 · Rushing Tyrell Campbell 328 · Receiving Jaxon Potter 433 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Eastern Illinois | L 14-28 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Shannon 257 · Rush Allen 54 · Rec Campbell 66 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Middle Tennessee | L 14-38 97 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Ogle 118 · Rush Campbell 75 · Rec Howard 49 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Valparaiso | W 27-18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Shannon 121 · Rush Campbell 117 · Rec Firestone 62 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Oklahoma State | L 0-59 119 Roaring | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Ogle 79 · Rush Embry 26 · Rec Howard 38 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Southern Illinois | L 6-46 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Ogle 77 · Rush Allen 48 · Rec Firestone 39 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @North Dakota | L 28-55 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Wright 80 · Rush Campbell 51 · Rec Howard 55 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | South Dakota | L 20-48 | 1-6 | 0-3 | Pass Shannon 150 · Rush Wright 59 · Rec Potter 69 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @South Dakota State | L 9-42 | 1-7 | 0-4 | Pass Wright 174 · Rush Northington 45 · Rec Firestone 78 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Illinois State | L 14-35 | 1-8 | 0-5 | Pass Shannon 169 · Rush Northington 74 · Rec Potter 131 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Youngstown State | 2 pm ET1% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Indiana State | 1 pm ET15% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Northern Iowa | 2 pm ET5% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Murray State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Illinois State | L 14-35 | — | — | — | +0.062 | 41.1% | 1.03 | |
| Oct 24 | @South Dakota State | L 9-42 | — | — | — | −0.230 | 34.3% | 0.93 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | South Dakota | L 20-48 | — | — | — | −0.002 | 31.2% | 1.77 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @North Dakota | L 28-55 | — | — | — | −0.171 | 38.7% | 0.86 | |
| Sep 26 | Southern Illinois | L 6-46 | — | — | — | −0.293 | 33.9% | 0.91 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Oklahoma State | L 0-59 | 160 | 1 | 24:52 | −0.198 | 28.3% | 0.80 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Valparaiso | W 27-18 | — | — | — | +0.184 | 41.7% | 1.24 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Middle Tennessee | L 14-38 | 290 | 1 | 23:17 | +0.136 | 44.0% | 1.19 | Best success rate |
| Aug 27 | Eastern Illinois | L 14-28 | — | — | — | +0.051 | 38.8% | 1.22 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 225 | 1.0 | −0.051 | 36.9% | 1.11 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last six.
Range of outcomes · Murray State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 80%; 2 wins 19%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-8
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MVFC teams the same season
Murray State is the Racers in their worst season ever — 1-11 in 2025, testing whether the program can climb out of the historic hole under new head coach Jody Wright.
Murray State is the Racers in their worst season ever — 1-11 in 2025, testing whether the program can climb out of the historic hole under new head coach Jody Wright.
Range of outcomes · Murray State · 2026