Youngstown State at Murray State Prediction & Odds

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Youngstown State

7-2 Won 5 straight

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Murray State

1-8 Lost 6 straight

Sat, Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET · Roy Stewart StadiumAdd to calendar: Google · other

Murray State (1‑8) hosts Youngstown State (7‑2). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Youngstown State (99%).

How they got here

Last three games

Youngstown State · 7-2

Rated 147th in our preseason ratings, 87th now, up 60 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 31-28 vs North Dakota No. 98 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 35-22 vs Northern Iowa No. 159 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 57-24 @ Indiana State No. 221 of 668 teams

won by 33 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 28-16 @ Southern Illinois No. 162 of 668 teams

won by 12 as a 4-point favorite

W 47-28 vs South Dakota No. 118 of 668 teams

won by 19 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 20-27 @ South Dakota State No. 102 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 70-13 vs Duquesne No. 205 of 668 teams

won by 57 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-45 @ KentuckyTop 25 No. 100 of 668 teams

lost by 32 as a 22.5-point underdog

W 43-10 vs Mercyhurst No. 227 of 668 teams

won by 33 as a 30.5-point favorite

Last three games

Murray State · 1-8

Rated 254th in our preseason ratings, 264th now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 14-35 @ Illinois State No. 111 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 29.5-point underdog

L 9-42 @ South Dakota State No. 86 of 668 teams

lost by 33 as a 42.5-point underdog

L 20-48 vs South Dakota No. 92 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 28.5-point underdog

L 28-55 @ North Dakota No. 110 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 37.5-point underdog

L 6-46 vs Southern Illinois No. 156 of 668 teams

lost by 40 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 0-59 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 No. 192 of 668 teams

lost by 59 as a 56.5-point underdog

W 27-18 vs Valparaiso No. 254 of 668 teams

won by 9 as a 14-point favorite

L 14-38 @ Middle Tennessee No. 136 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 22.5-point underdog

L 14-28 vs Eastern Illinois No. 200 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite

What’s at stake

Youngstown State

Youngstown State controls first place in MVFC with 1 game left.

Murray State

A win would be one of Murray State’s biggest of the season — a 177-spot gap in the power ratings.

See this week’s biggest postseason implications ›

The series

Youngstown State leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 2023 · Youngstown State has won the last 2

2025Youngstown State 51-17
2023Youngstown State 34-17

Home field

Murray State has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.5 points (±6.5), home against road — 1st percentile of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-4 home, 0-18 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±7.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 516 miles to get here.

Week by week

Murray State

Wk 4Lvs Southern Illinois6-46
Wk 5Lat North Dakota28-55
Wk 7Lvs South Dakota20-48
Wk 8Lat South Dakota State9-42
Wk 9Lat Illinois State14-35

Youngstown State

Wk 4Wvs South Dakota47-28
Wk 5Wat Southern Illinois28-16
Wk 6Wat Indiana State57-24
Wk 7Wvs Northern Iowa35-22
Wk 9Wvs North Dakota31-28

Power rating by week

Youngstown State is rated 14.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Murray State8th0-5
Youngstown State1st5-1