Big 12 Oklahoma State

Head coach Eric Morris · 1st season · 5-3 at Oklahoma State

Record5-33-2 Big 12 · T-4th
APNo. 24week 9 poll
Bowl1 win to goto bowl eligibility
Nextat Kansas StateSat Nov 7 · 1 pm ET · TNT

The rest of the season

4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 13 Texas Tech 18%

Win out 1% · expect 1.4 of 4 more wins

Oklahoma State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Kansas State 26%, Texas Tech 18%, Arizona State 48%, Kansas 53%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 6% to 76%, peaking at 92% before a game

6%8%L28%W58%W76%W76%L92%W76%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 4th in the Big 12 · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Drew Mestemaker 2,649 · Rushing Caleb Hawkins 906 · Receiving Justin Bowick 731 All player stats

The nationAP #24week 9 poll
The model#78 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #23 (+12.4) · FPI #34 · AP #24 is a vote; our rating ranks them #78. Why they differ
The marketOklahoma State by 4.5Betting line at Kansas State · our model 26% Oklahoma State

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Oklahoma State:athletics siteBig 12

Schedule and results

Oklahoma State · 2026 schedule and results5-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #262 to #75
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#262#107−13.5✗ −27.5@TulsaL 10-24 143Oklahoma State lost 10-24 at Tulsa. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 85%.0-10-0Pass Mestemaker 241 · Rush Hawkins 79 · Rec Young 84
2Sep 12#260#2+24.5✓ +32.5OregonTop 10 winW 39-31 142Oklahoma State won 39-31 vs Oregon. Chance to win started at 8%, low 4%, high better than 99%.1-10-0Pass Mestemaker 317 · Rush Hawkins 110 · Rec Young 121
3Sep 19#231#252−56.5✓ +2.5Murray StateW 59-0 119Oklahoma State won 59-0 vs Murray State. Never in doubt. Roaring2-10-0Pass Mestemaker 324 · Rush Hawkins 72 · Rec Bowick 178
4Sep 26#192#137+1.5✓ +18.5@West VirginiaW 41-24 156Oklahoma State won 41-24 at West Virginia. Chance to win started at 34%, low 10%, high better than 99%.3-11-0Pass Mestemaker 389 · Rush Hawkins 180 · Rec Young 192
5Bye week
6Oct 10#142#67−10.5✓ +3.5UCFW 42-28 143Oklahoma State won 42-28 vs UCF. Chance to win started at 84%, low 56%, high better than 99%.4-12-0Pass Mestemaker 304 · Rush Hawkins 83 · Rec Bowick 98
7Oct 17#117#11+4✓ +1@HoustonL 32-35 132Oklahoma State lost 32-35 at Houston. Chance to win started at 27%, low 2%, high 43%.4-22-1Pass Mestemaker 365 · Rush Hawkins 68 · Rec Hawkins 125
8Oct 24#99#94−12.5✓ +20.5ColoradoW 57-24 138Oklahoma State won 57-24 vs Colorado. Chance to win started at 86%, low 57%, high better than 99%.5-23-1Pass Mestemaker 386 · Rush Hawkins 120 · Rec Bowick 138
9Oct 31#75#110−10✗ −12@Iowa StateL 49-51 146Oklahoma State lost 49-51 at Iowa State. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 87%.5-33-2Pass Mestemaker 323 · Rush Hawkins 194 · Rec Bowick 124
10Nov 7#80#60−4.5@Kansas State1 pm ET · TNT26% to win
11Nov 14#81#12+15.5Texas Techtime TBA18% to win
12Nov 21@Arizona Statetime TBA48% to win
13Nov 28Kansastime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Oklahoma State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Oklahoma State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@Iowa StateL 49-51533225:13+0.37754.7%1.27Defense's roughest night
Oct 24ColoradoW 57-24598030:45+0.43048.7%1.47Most explosive
Oct 17@HoustonL 32-35499224:48+0.29553.3%1.27One-score loss
Oct 10UCFW 42-28414124:45+0.22254.0%1.00
Sep 26@West VirginiaW 41-24609128:56+0.40955.7%1.15
Sep 19Murray StateW 59-0662135:08+0.58964.0%1.19Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12OregonW 39-31554236:54-0.03643.7%1.13One-score win
Sep 5@TulsaL 10-24368431:05-0.07136.4%1.03Season-low EPA/play
Season average (8 games)5301.6+0.27751.3%1.19

Oklahoma State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line8.5 winsover +160
Offense eliteMethodical, ball-controlDefense soft

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 8.5▼1 since Sep 9
CFP championship#55 in field+50,000
Big 12 title#6 in market+1,700

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 14OSU-Texas Techvs AP #13 Texas Tech · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Oklahoma State has won three of its last five.

5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
The biggest thing is that the culture and the coaching staff and the team all feel right to me
Kellow · On32 days before Oklahoma State's 2026 game against Iowa State
2 storylines developing

What Oklahoma State’s coaching hire is really about

The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

Coachingthis cyclenew

Eric Morris took over as Oklahoma State's head coach, replacing Doug Meacham.

The contextreplaces 21-year head coach Mike Gundy (170-90)

Statusbackground

Coordinatorsthis cyclenew

Eric Morris inherits a 1-11 losing record and a program identity built around being not-Oklahoma, raising questions about how he redefines it in his first season.

What happenedSean Brophy replaced Doug Meacham as Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator.

Statusbackground

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedOklahoma State moved on from that hire — a new coaching change began the following season. See who's next →
Died downOklahoma State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedOklahoma State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · Oklahoma State · 2026

Oklahoma State’s most likely regular season is 6-6. 99% of outcomes land from 5-7 to 8-4.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

5 wins 15%; 6 wins 39%; 7 wins 34%; 8 wins 11%; 9 wins 1%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · Oklahoma State · Coaching

New coverage keeps arriving on Eric Morris at Oklahoma State.

Eric Morris took over as Oklahoma State's head coach, replacing Doug Meacham. It is replaces 21-year head coach Mike Gundy (170-90). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is divided, and believers and skeptics both cite evidence.

bullish, with real dissent doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Skeptics1 doubtful post
Believers4 upbeat posts
Drama: simmeringFans: 1% volume · mostly neutral
Developing5 new this week
yesterdayEric Morris hopeful Tate Romney, Jaleel Johnson can return against Kansas State · Yahoo Sports
yesterdayEric Morris praises Wyatt Young's accountability after costly penalty against Iowa State · Yahoo Sports
yesterdayHow Oklahoma State football coach Eric Morris reviewed Iowa State loss · The Oklahoman
3 days agoBig 12 title odds: +550 to +1700 (the market’s chance is down 9.8 points)
3 days agoOSU coach calls out penalty
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Eric Morris Head coach
“Eric Morris hopeful Tate Romney, Jaleel Johnson can return against Kansas State” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-11-03
Doug Meacham Out
Eric Morris Emphasizes
“Eric Morris Emphasizes Red Zone Defense as Oklahoma State Prepares for Iowa State's Top-Ranked Attack” — roundtable.io · 2026-10-27
Eric Morris Wonders
“Eric Morris Wonders If Oklahoma State Scored Too Early in Heartbreaking Iowa State Loss” — roundtable.io · 2026-11-01
Our read
Believers read the disruption as part of the plan; skeptics read it as a distraction.
Source of record: Eric Morris took over as Oklahoma State's head coach, replacing Doug Meacham — replaces 21-year head coach Mike Gundy (170-90).
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quietThe Dominoes active
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “‘He’s Been Great Like Always’: Eric Morris Addresses Ongoing…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“‘He’s Been Great Like Always’: Eric Morris Addresses Ongoing Chad Weiberg Saga at Weekly Media Availability”
Pistols Firing · Oct 6 · read ↗
📣Believers4 bullish/hire items making the case that it's working.›

The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.

“GENIUS: Oklahoma State's Eric Morris Just Released MASTERFUL Mid-Season Recruiting Move!”
KVUE · Oct 28 · read ↗
“Bill Haisten Urges Oklahoma State to Reward Eric Morris With New Contract After Remarkable Turnaround”
Yahoo Sports · Oct 31 · read ↗
“Bits and Pieces from Eric Morris News Conference Previewing Iowa State”
Pokes Report · Oct 27 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “Eric Morris Questions Oklahoma State's Road Struggles After…”.›

The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

“Eric Morris Questions Oklahoma State's Road Struggles After Loss to Iowa State in Ames”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 2 · read ↗
💬The boards1% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (53%).›

This event was in 68 of 5502 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"Absolutely unacceptable to put up 49 points and still lose. Morris needs to clean house of this defense."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"We’ve outscored our opponents 112 - 38 in the 2nd half in the last 4 games. Eric Morris is putting something in those halftime uncrustables."
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (53 posts): 21% positive · 56% neutral · 23% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

🔗The dominoes16 downstream moves tied to the hire.›

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Oklahoma State TCU Offensive Tackle Commit Gabriel Brooks”
Pistols Firing · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Oklahoma State football flips OL Gabriel Brooks from TCU in 2027 recruiting class”
The Oklahoman · Nov 4 · read ↗
Developing · Oklahoma State

Sean Brophy replaced Doug Meacham as Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator.

Developing2 new this week
3 days agoBig 12 title odds: +550 to +1700 (the market’s chance is down 9.8 points)
3 days agoOSU coach calls out penalty
last weekBig 12 title odds: +1500 to +930 (the market’s chance is up 3.5 points)
last weekMose Phillips III out for season
2 weeks agoBig 12 title odds: +750 to +1150 (the market’s chance is down 3.8 points)
Our read
Eric Morris inherits a 1-11 losing record and a program identity built around being not-Oklahoma, raising questions about how he redefines it in his first season.
Source of record: Sean Brophy replaced Doug Meacham as Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator.
How fans reacted · tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers1 bullish items making the case that it's working.›

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Daily Bullets (June 20): Eric Morris Reels in a Four-Star, Doug Gottlieb Extended”
Pistols Firing · Jun 20 · read ↗
“Oklahoma State OC Sean Brophy breaks down backup QBs, emerging offensive linemen”
247Sports · Aug 16 · read ↗
“From quarterback to coordinator: Sean Brophy's journey with Eric Morris”
ocolly.com · Aug 13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

💬The boards1 board mentions, too few to call a stance. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (53%).›

Only 1 of 5502 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.

"Doug. I fucking love what you’re doing. But can we try like a couple of just down hill zone reads with Howland and Sam off the edge?"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Honestly that pass might be worth points even though it was never gonna convert. Good call Doug."
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (53 posts): 21% positive · 56% neutral · 23% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 68 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3

Game feel68shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate1-2some dramain one-score games (3 of 8)7th most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+14.0competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo72uptempooffensive plays / game4th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.19grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)13th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd51,885avg attendance3rd biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written June 2026

Oklahoma State spent twenty years as Mike Gundy's program — then fired him three games into a 1-11 collapse and handed a flattened roster to Eric Morris, the first sitting FBS coach Stillwater has ever hired.

AP Top 25#24 AP

The fanbase spent a generation insisting Stillwater was its own program, not a satellite of the school 80 miles south. A 1-11 season handed Oklahoma every easy joke — and the room is daring Morris…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weather56° at kickoff, 2% chance of rain

Oklahoma State · Game-day weather

This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 1 pm ET · TNT · Bill Snyder Family Stadium.

  • 56°feels like
  • 2%average rain chance
  • 5 mphwind gusts
  • 99weather score, Comfortable

Typical at Boone Pickens Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm Saturdays 82

This game is at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Boone Pickens Stadium, Oklahoma State's home stadium.

  • noon: 84, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 82, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Oklahoma State is the program that lived in Mike Gundy's mullet for 20 years and built a Big 12 identity around being not-Oklahoma.

Offense: EliteStyle: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Soft
Program ledgerLatest: Fell out of the AP Top 25 (2026, week 10)

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 49-51 at Iowa Statewas No. 24
  • 2026 · Wk 9Entered the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 57-24 at home over Coloradoat No. 24
  • 2026 · Wk 8Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 7 · Lost 32-35 at Houstonwas No. 18
  • 2026 · Wk 5Entered the AP Top 25Week 4 · Won 41-24 at West Virginiaat No. 19
  • 2026Hired Eric Morris
  • 2025Doug Meacham departs (interim)0-9
  • 2025Mike Gundy departs170-90
  • 2025Hired Doug Meacham (interim)

Roster and recruiting

Roster0% of production back, talent #65

Roster reload: Oklahoma State

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production0%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#65 nationally247 composite 672.7
Portal Additions55Primary repair: DL
Portal Losses65Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#69Depth class
WRin 7 - Wyatt Young4.38out 12 - Shamar Rigby3.80Starter Risk
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Deep Threatbeats you over the top
Transferred in
OTin 7 - Ashton Lepo3.60out 6 - Markell Samuel3.60Upgrade
CBin 6 - Trudell Berry3.60out 5 - JK Johnson3.60Upgrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Corner2023 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
Sin 5 - Quinton Hammonds3.60out 6 - Landyn Cleveland3.60Downgrade
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Box Safetyplays like an extra linebacker near the line
Transferred in
EDGEin 4 - James Williams3.70out 6 - Wendell Gregory4.38Starter Risk
current room: 268 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Versatile Endholds up snap after snap without a weakness to attack
Transferred in
DLin 6 - Jerry Lawson3.80out 3 - De'Marion Thomas3.60Need Filled
current room: 311 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchorcontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
Third program
Full roster (117 players)
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Carson White
QB · Rosharon, TX
#469 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] UCF Defeats Oklahoma State 17-14
219 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Postgame Thread] Oklahoma State Defeats UCF 42-28
40 upvotes · Oct 2026
[Game Thread] UCF @ Oklahoma State (12:00 PM ET)
40 upvotes · Oct 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market≈
78th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
8.5
Sportsbook win total
(79th among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 1 book
Where voters differAP voters range from #24 to #25 (week 9)
Voter spread

2 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #24, Mike Jacques (WMTV-TV), to #25, Murray Evans (Lawton Constitution). 68 voters left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: Texas Tech bearish, OSU-Texas Tech Oklahoma bearish

Rival pulse

Texas Tech
Bearish
-28
OSU-Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Bearish
-22
Bedlam

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Oklahoma State

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site