Tulsa 24-10 Oklahoma State (Sep 5, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oklahoma State · Tulsa

Oklahoma State0-110

Tulsa1-024Final

Sat, Sep 5 · Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Okla. · Crowd 28,520ESPNU

Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 24-10 as a 13.5-point underdog.

We had Tulsa favored. It won.

Next: Oklahoma State beat Oregon 39-31, Sat Sep 12

Next: Tulsa beat Sam Houston 23-17, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

The downfall of Oklahoma state needs to be studied.

Q4 4:28 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

The turning point: Hayes 21-yd TD pass to Singleton, Tulsa leads 17-3 (Q3, 7:00). Tulsa went from 65% to 85% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tulsa a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (Tulsa was a 13.5-point underdog) put it at 14%.

FinalTulsa 24-10 Oklahoma StateTulsa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 7:00Hayes 21-yd TD pass to Singleton, Tulsa leads 17-3Tulsa 65% → 85% (+20)
2Q3 1:524th and 7Mestemaker 16-yd TD pass to Bowick, cuts it to 17-10Tulsa 80% → 65% (−15)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 7:00Hayes 21-yd TD pass to Singleton, Tulsa leads 17-3Oklahoma State 35% → 15% (−20)
2Q3 1:524th and 7Mestemaker 16-yd TD pass to Bowick, cuts it to 17-10Oklahoma State 20% → 35% (+15)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 2:57Mestemaker throws touchdown pass to Bowick, making it 17-10 TulsaMestemaker and Hawkins are just sophomores. Morris needs to bring in an OL and DLr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:38Oklahoma State fans rip Morris's playcalling after fourth down turnover on downsSomebody needs to tell me what Morris actually improved. I don’t see anything.r/CFB game threadAm I going to commit 11 more Saturdays to watching this team play? Honestly I don't know.r/CFB game thread
Q4 4:28Mestemaker throws interception to Williams as OSU fans lament the lossQuoted at the top of the page.

Tulsa’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oklahoma State -13.5), at 23% for Tulsa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Tulsa or Oklahoma State flair (179 and 593); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Tulsa’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Tulsa scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Oklahoma State on 2 of its 12.

Tulsa’s drives are teal, Oklahoma State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Oklahoma State’s side

Oklahoma State’s best moment: Mestemaker 16-yd TD pass to Bowick, cuts it to 17-10 (Q3 1:52). It lifted Oklahoma State’s win chance by 15 points.

How Oklahoma State fans took it: “I've just now had the realization that college sports are stupid and the Thunder are the only thing that matters” r/CFB game thread

“Winning two years in a row might just give some juice to this rivalry for the first time in a while!”

A Tulsa fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

The winner fell to 15%.

What it cost

Tulsa’s chance to win the conference fell from 2% to 1%.

Win the conference

Oklahoma State · lost0% → 0%

Tulsa · won2% → ▼1%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Tulsa 24, Oklahoma State 10

Tulsa covered +13.5 by 27.5. The total, 34, stayed under 57.5.

Team totals	Oklahoma State	Tulsa
Total yards	368	361
Passing	29 of 49, 241 yds	17 of 24, 227 yds
Rushing	37 for 127 yds	33 for 134 yds
First downs	27	15
Third down	5 of 16	1 of 11
Fourth down	2 of 6	1 of 1
Turnovers	4	1
Penalties	6 for 59 yds	9 for 102 yds
Time of possession	31:05	28:55

Oklahoma State leaders

Passing Drew Mestemaker 29 of 49, 241 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Caleb Hawkins 18 for 79 yds; Ayo Adeyi 6 for 24 yds
Receiving Wyatt Young 8 for 84 yds; Miles Coleman 4 for 40 yds

Tulsa leaders

Passing Baylor Hayes 17 of 24, 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Damari Alston 15 for 73 yds, 2 TD; Trequan Jones 7 for 35 yds
Receiving Oran Singleton Jr. 4 for 99 yds, 1 TD; Jimmy Calloway 5 for 71 yds

Feels like 102° to 106° through the game

101° at kickoff · feels like 102° to 106° · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 17

A feels-like 106° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than every one of the 57 other games played at Chapman Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 82°, with about 7 in 10 games between 74° and 89°.

September game-day temperatures at Chapman Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 7:00 left4:56 p.m.

Oklahoma State 3, Tulsa 17 · Tulsa 85% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 14 · 100°

Hayes 21-yd TD pass to Singleton, Tulsa leads 17-3

Measured at Tulsa International Airport(aw) airport, 4.6 miles away, and Tulsa/lloyd Jones airport, 7.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Oklahoma State · 1-11

Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings.

L 13-20 vs Iowa StateTop 25 #41 of 667

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 14-17 @ UCF #81 of 667

lost by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

L 6-14 vs Kansas StateTop 25 #37 of 667

lost by 8 as a 19.5-point underdog

L 21-38 @ Kansas #61 of 667

lost by 17 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 0-42 @ Texas TechTop 25 #13 of 667

lost by 42 as a 35.5-point underdog

L 17-49 vs CincinnatiTop 25 #33 of 667

lost by 32 as a 23.5-point underdog

L 17-39 vs HoustonTop 25 #67 of 667

lost by 22 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 13-41 @ ArizonaTop 25 #65 of 667

lost by 28 as a 23.5-point underdog

L 27-45 vs Baylor #24 of 667

lost by 18 as a 21.5-point underdog

L 12-19 vs Tulsa #135 of 667

lost by 7 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 3-69 @ OregonTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 66 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 27-7 vs UT Martin #108 of 667

won by 20 as a 26-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Tulsa · 4-8

Rated 107th in our preseason ratings.

L 24-31 vs UAB #159 of 667

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 26-25 @ Army #126 of 667

won by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 31-14 vs Oregon State #143 of 667

won by 17 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 21-40 @ Florida Atlantic #100 of 667

lost by 19 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 37-38 vs Temple #110 of 667

lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 27-41 @ East Carolina #64 of 667

lost by 14 as a 16.5-point underdog

L 7-45 @ MemphisTop 25 #25 of 667

lost by 38 as a 21.5-point underdog

L 14-31 vs TulaneTop 25 #52 of 667

lost by 17 as a 14.5-point underdog

W 19-12 @ Oklahoma State #87 of 667

won by 7 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 23-42 vs NavyTop 25 #82 of 667

lost by 19 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 14-21 @ New Mexico State #201 of 667

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 35-7 vs Abilene Christian #131 of 667

won by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against Tulsa, 60 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against Tulsa’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 13th percentile · Tulsa defense, 73rd
Oklahoma State’s passing EPA against Tulsa’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 93rd percentile · Tulsa defense, 42nd
Oklahoma State’s success rate against Tulsa’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 95th percentile · Tulsa defense, 42nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Oklahoma StateTulsa

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Oklahoma State leads the series 44-28-5

77 meetings since 1914 · Tulsa won the last meeting

2025Tulsa 19-12
2024Oklahoma State 45-10
2021Oklahoma State 28-23
2020Oklahoma State 16-7
2019Oklahoma State 40-21

Each line is Tulsa’s chance to win through that meeting. Tulsa is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Tulsa fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (50th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Oklahoma State favored by 13.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Oklahoma State by 13.5, on the usual path until Q2 1:51

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Oklahoma State.

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 104° at kickoff.

Oklahoma State at Tulsa · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Chapman Stadium, Tulsa

104°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
38weather score, Harsh
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Chapman Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 62, against 38 at 2:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 41, Harsh
noon: 41, Harsh
2:30 pm: 38, Harsh (this game)
3:15 pm: 38, Harsh
4 pm: 38, Harsh
6 pm: 53, Rough
7 pm: 62, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Tulsa is worth +1.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile.

40% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (17-25 home, 17-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 63 miles to get here.

Tulsa upsets Oklahoma State 24-10