The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 20 Boise State 26%, Texas State 52%, Utah State 67%
Win out 9% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
Oregon State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Texas State 52%, Boise State 26%, Utah State 67%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from <1% to 5%, peaking at 15% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing2nd in the Pac-12 · 3-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Braden Atkinson 2,956 · Rushing AJ Newberry 465 · Receiving Jesse Legree 1,110 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Oregon State:athletics sitePac-12
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #69 | #20 | +21✓ +8 | @Houston | L 20-33 145 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Atkinson 376 · Rush Glass 25 · Rec Legree 136 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #67 | #7 | +25.5✓ +14.5 | Texas Tech | L 24-35 145 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Atkinson 413 · Rush Butler 20 · Rec Legree 240 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #60 | #105 | −17.5✓ +17.5 | Montana | W 52-17 140 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Atkinson 333 · Rush Garrison 56 · Rec Legree 100 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #64 | #176 | −11.5✓ +14.5 | @UTEP | W 33-7 123 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Atkinson 301 · Rush Newberry 111 · Rec Legree 109 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #52 | #72 | −7✓ +23 | @Colorado State | W 56-26 110 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Atkinson 404 · Rush Newberry 90 · Rec Legree 156 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #38 | #70 | −14.5✓ +37.5 | San Diego State | W 66-14 140 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Atkinson 409 · Rush Newberry 55 · Rec Legree 191 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #25 | #75 | −18.5✗ −0.5 | Washington State | W 48-30 151 | 5-2 | 3-0 | Pass Atkinson 347 · Rush Newberry 105 · Rec Newberry 120 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #26 | #58 | −6✗ −22 | @Fresno State | L 22-38 143 | 5-3 | 3-1 | Pass Atkinson 373 · Rush Hatcher Jr. 53 · Rec Temple 97 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #38 | #31 | −6.5 | Texas State | 10:30 pm ET · The CW52% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #38 | #13 | @Boise State | 6 pm ET · USA Network26% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Utah State | 10:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network67% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Oregon State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Oregon State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Fresno State | L 22-38 | 450 | 2 | 30:49 | +0.007 | 44.3% | 1.10 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Washington State | W 48-30 | 555 | 0 | 29:20 | +0.374 | 45.8% | 1.51 | |
| Oct 10 | San Diego State | W 66-14 | 651 | 0 | 42:18 | +0.390 | 61.1% | 1.09 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Colorado State | W 56-26 | 525 | 1 | 41:01 | +0.476 | 71.0% | 1.02 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @UTEP | W 33-7 | 451 | 1 | 25:37 | +0.310 | 50.8% | 1.30 | |
| Sep 19 | Montana | W 52-17 | 510 | 1 | 29:07 | +0.511 | 50.7% | 1.32 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Texas Tech | L 24-35 | 472 | 1 | 30:25 | +0.168 | 29.6% | 2.05 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | @Houston | L 20-33 | 402 | 0 | 29:10 | +0.183 | 40.5% | 1.34 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 502 | 0.8 | +0.302 | 49.2% | 1.34 | ||||
Oregon State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Joining Blue Ribbon Elite is a dream come true, and I get to do it representing Oregon State
5% now · ▼ 9 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Utah State over Fresno State
Sat 9:30 pm · Moves Oregon State’s conference title chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
JaMarcus Shephard inherits a 2-10 roster and a program identity built on survival — the third head coach in five years faces the challenge of proving Oregon State can still.
Statusbackground
JaMarcus Shephard inherits a 2-10 losing record and a program at a crossroads, with fans uneasy about whether the Pac-12 collapse survivor can avoid another downturn.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Oregon State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 12%; 6 wins 41%; 7 wins 39%; 8 wins 9%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 5 of 5783 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
JaMarcus Shephard took over as Oregon State's head coach, replacing Trent Bray. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 12 of 5783 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pac-12 teams the same season
Oregon State is the program the Pac-12 left behind — ten schools sprinted for the exits and the Beavers were handed the keys to the wreckage, then went 2-10 trying to rebuild a league from two.
Oregon walked into the Big Ten and left the Civil War behind without a backward glance. The fanbase in Corvallis hasn't forgotten which neighbor abandoned the rivalry — or that the Beavers stayed…
Oregon State · Game-day weather
Typical at Reser Stadium: noon Saturdays score 96, 7:30 pm Saturdays 91
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 107 at noon, 107 at 3:30 pm, 106 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Oregon State is the Pac-12-collapse survivor — Reser Stadium, 2024 transitional independent schedule, and Jonathan Smith / Trent Bray rebuild that proved a P5 program can refuse to disappear.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
4th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Oregon State · 2026