Next game: vs Texas State
Oregon State’s best edge on Texas State is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Oregon State offense against Texas State defense
Texas State offense against Oregon State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Passer · +0.32 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 221 / 331 | 66.8 | 2956 #1 FBS | 8.9 | 25 #1 FBS | 2 | 165.5 | 52 | 71.6 | 9.4 | 4.1 | |
Yards by week → Vertical passerElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. Impact starter — 331 pass attempts, 31 carries and 1 catch in 8 games, more passes and runs a game than nearly every FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Atkinson pushes it downfield on every look. Madsen is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.2 89th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.6% 92th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Braden Atkinson's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.05 EPA/play | 5 | — | 156 / 267 | 58.4 | 1584 #71 FBS | 5.9 | 8 | 7 | 112.9 | — | — | 5.3 | 0.7 | |
Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 267 pass attempts and 56 carries in 9 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Johnson operates within the system without forcing anything. Madsen is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt5.8 bottom 5th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %58.4% bottom 17th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gabarri Johnson's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +2.90 EPA/play | 6 | 2 | 11 / 12 | 91.7 | 81 | 6.8 | 1 | 0 | 175.9 | — | 34.2 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.45 EPA/play | 23 | 8 | 72 | 465 | 6.5 | 3 | 35 | 11.3 | 15.5 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — 72 carries, 26 catches and 1 pass attempt in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Newberry wins in space out of the backfield. Riley is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Receiving share26.5% 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception11.5 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View AJ Newberry's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.18 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 51 | 267 | 5.2 | 5 | 27 | 15.1 | 18.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 51 carries and 2 catches in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Jr. does a little of everything without one standout trait. Riley is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry5.6 62th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate9.8% 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Cornell Hatcher Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.43 EPA/play | 22 | 7 | 29 | 103 | 3.6 | 0 | 10 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.22 EPA/play | 34 | 7 | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 3 | 10 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.87 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 53 | 1110 #1 FBS | 20.9 | 14 #1 FBS | 90 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. Impact starter — 53 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: he takes the top off a defense — and he finds the end zone, too This week's matchup — WR Legree beats you over the top. Jones is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception21.2 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate26.4% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jesse Legree's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.58 EPA/play | 80 | 8 | 37 | 424 | 11.5 | 4 #70 FBS | 40 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Impact starter — 37 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Olsen shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Wagner is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception11.6 57th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume37 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Eric Olsen's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.55 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 29 | 283 | 9.8 | 2 | 28 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 29 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Temple shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Wagner is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception11.0 bottom 50th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume29 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View D.C. Temple's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.26 EPA/play | 12 | — | 16 | 257 | 16.1 | 2 | 43 | |
Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Card moves the chains on third down. Jones is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception13.9 55th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume16 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Zachary Card's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +1.24 EPA/play | 9 | — | 18 | 257 | 14.3 | 2 | 30 | |
Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR East moves the chains on third down. Jones is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 bottom 28th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.2 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamai East's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.59 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 22 | 253 | 11.5 | 1 | 28 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Aeryn Hampton's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.14 EPA/play | — | 7 | 16 | 233 | 14.6 | 1 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Butler moves the chains on third down. Jones is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception12.9 bottom 44th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Aaron Butler's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.60 EPA/play | 16 | 7 | 14 | 177 | 12.6 | 0 | 28 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Thomas moves the chains on third down. Jones is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception12.5 bottom 39th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cynai Thomas's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.78 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 | 14 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.27 EPA/play | 82 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 | 17 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 97 | 8 | 20 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 6 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 20 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight308 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyler Bailey's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 59 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tevita Pome'e's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.0% bottom 50th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Daniel Matagi's full player page | |||||||
| 62 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 91 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 2 | 8 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 60 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Aiden Sullivan's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 44 | 8 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 11.5 #10 FBS | 6 #17 FBS | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 41 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.0% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate14.6% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Takari Hickle's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 12 | 8 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 39 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume39 53th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate5.1% 74th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gyriece Goodman's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 1 | 8 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate14.3% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume35 bottom 44th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dylan Layne's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 7 | 29 | 9 | 20 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume29 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.2% bottom 29th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jabari Odoemenem's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 14 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume20 bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kord Shaw's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 99 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Niklas Fisher's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 10 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.2% bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Logan Knapp's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 18 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jarrel Comer's full player page | |||||||||
| 50 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 5 | — | 42 | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — 42 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.9% 70th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Amarion York's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 36 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Drake Vickers's full player pagePD rate3.0% bottom 27th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.2% 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Isaiah Houi's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 8 | 8 | 24 | 5 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.8% 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Sailasa Vadrawale's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 4 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View TJ Crandall's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 28 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Blake Thompson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaheim Patterson's full player page | |||||||
| 19 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 28 | 8 | 10/13 | 76.9 | 37/37 | 67 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 7 | 20 | 857 | 42.9 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.01 EPA/play | 25 | 5 | 6 | 107 | 17.8 | 0 | 35 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.78 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 | 29 |
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 8 | 4 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
Biggest plays from Oregon State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Oregon State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 2:12 · Oregon State down 13Javion White sacks Braden Atkinson for an 11-yard lossOregon State at Houston, week 1Q4, 2:12 · Oregon State 20, Houston 33Fourth-down sackFourth-down sackB.Atkinson sacked for loss of 11 yards to the OSU47 (J.White), TURNOVER ON DOWNS▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 12:57 · Oregon State tiedJavion White sacks Braden Atkinson for an 11-yard lossOregon State at Houston, week 1Q1, 12:57 · Oregon State 0, Houston 0Javion White's first career sackJavion White's first career sackB.Atkinson sacked for loss of 11 yards to the OSU24 (J.White)▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 8:13 · Houston tiedConner Weigman finds Amare Thomas for a 31-yard touchdownOregon State at Houston, week 1Q1, 8:13 · Houston 6, Oregon State 0Houston opened the scoringHouston opened the scoringC.Weigman pass complete short right to A.Thomas caught at OSU24, for 31 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN J.Dimas kick attempt failed, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
Q1, 6:17 · Oregon State down 6, takes the leadBraden Atkinson runs 3 yards for a touchdownOregon State at Houston, week 1Q1, 6:17 · Oregon State 7, Houston 6Oregon State took the lead in the first quarterOregon State took the lead in the first quarterB.Atkinson rush right for 3 yards gain to the HOU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 0:44 · Oregon State down 19Braden Atkinson finds Jesse Legree for a 7-yard touchdownOregon State at Houston, week 1Q3, 0:44 · Oregon State 13, Houston 26Oregon State’s first points in 35 minutesOregon State’s first points in 35 minutesB.Atkinson pass complete short left to J.Legree caught at HOU01, for 7 yards to the HOU00 touchdown penalty HOU Offside declined B.Atkinson pass attempt failed▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 12:47 · Houston up 13Sailasa Vadrawale intercepts Conner Weigman and returns it 24 yardsOregon State at Houston, week 1Q4, 12:47 · Houston 26, Oregon State 137Houston’s turnover led to a touchdown7Houston’s turnover led to a touchdownHouston’s turnover led to a touchdownC.Weigman pass intercepted by S.Vadrawale III at OSU01 broken up by G.Goodman S.Vadrawale III return 24 yards to the OSU25 (A.Boswell)▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Oregon State lost to Texas Tech after being 75% to win; the closest win was at Colorado State, down to 17%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Oregon State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Oregon State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Oregon StateJesse Legree leads Oregon State with 1,110 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+22 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Oregon State fields an elite pass-first offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Oregon State reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 3%) and EPA / play (top 7%); the crux lives in red-zone defense, where Oregon State sits at the 12th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Oregon State is worth +2.8 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile of 133 programs
50% at home, 31% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (23-23 home, 14-31 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Oregon State has beaten the number by +1.1 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Reser Stadium seats 43,363 and has averaged 79% full (34,329, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 554 miles to get here since 2018 — 37th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 13% of the 2026 roster (18 of 134 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 53 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Short yardageAnthony Hankerson converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate, and he also gets a real share of the team's goal-line carries.
- UnderdogDavid Wells Jr. produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeCornell Hatcher Jr. sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
AJ Newberry and Cornell Hatcher Jr. split the carries (71/124 vs 53/124) -- but the job isn't split the same way. AJ Newberry owns the receiving work.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jesse Legree (WR) and Eric Olsen (TE) split the targets (63/105 vs 42/105) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jesse Legree produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Oregon State actually scores
92nd percentile quality, 13th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Oregon State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 56th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 45th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Oregon State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
97th percentile success on standard downs, 70th on passing downs — a 27-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Oregon State by half
1st-half offense ranks 89th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 81st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Oregon State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.30; 91st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.10. The widest gap came in week 9: 0.34 raw vs. 0.11 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Oregon State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (72.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 282-play sample) — mid-pack, 130 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Oregon State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 192-play sample) — mid-pack, 37 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 38% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~48% league rate.
3 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 17% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
7 interceptions of 42 disrupted passes (35 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The penalty battle is a wash: 51 penalties committed vs. 49 drawn on opponents.
458 penalty yards committed vs. 456 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Oregon State
Most similar programs · Oregon StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Oregon State’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 48°, between 40° and 56° in about 7 in 10 games (32 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 63°, and 8 in 10 ran between 38° and 80° (51 of 52 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.