CFB Zeitgeist Score
9
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 38th percentile.
AJ Newberry
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
57 RUSH YDS · 3 RUSH TD · 18 CARRIES
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Oregon State
2025Vanderbilt
2026Oregon State
RB · VANDERBILT · SEC
AJ Newberry
- 3
- #23
- 6-1 | 197 lb
- Grand Prairie, TX
Heisman Heat
#320
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR04 · Rotational
Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025-41%
Sharp dropoff (-41%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Vanderbilt
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8656 | No. 956 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Vanderbilt -> Oregon State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8656
#956 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on AJ Newberry
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about AJ Newberry
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 10g
57Rush yards
18Carries
3Rush TDs
Per game
5.7Rush yards
2Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
74.1Rush yards
23Carries
4Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 57): needs 231/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 57): needs 314.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 57): needs 481/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 2.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 4/game over remaining 3.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 5.7/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
AJ Newberry's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Vanderbilt, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
18 37th
YDS
57 32nd
YPC
3.2 17th
TD
3 73rd
Receiving
REC
2 25th
YDS
18 28th
YPR
9.0 71st
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 45-3vs Charleston Southern | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Wk 3 | W 31-7@ South Carolina | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 4 | W 70-21vs Georgia State | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Wk 5 | W 55-35vs Utah State | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 16 | Season-high 26 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 14-30@ Alabama | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 8 | W 31-24vs LSU | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 9 | W 17-10vs Missouri | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 10 | L 31-34@ Texas | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | W 45-38vs Auburn | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 13 | W 45-17vs Kentucky | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Total | 18 | 57 | 2.2 | 3 | 16 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Vanderbilt2-10HC: Clark Lea · Balanced, slow tempo
2024Vanderbilt7-6HC: Clark Lea · Run-heavy
2025Vanderbilt10-3HC: Clark Lea · Balanced, slow tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Vanderbilt | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 3 | -- |
| 2024 | Vanderbilt | 41 | 185 | 4.5 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Vanderbilt | 20 | 96 | 4.8 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 79 | 338 | 4.3 | 6 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Vanderbilt | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2024 | Vanderbilt | 7 | 134 | 19.1 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | Vanderbilt | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 9 | 152 | 16.9 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 57 | #503/735 | 32nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 3 | #204/739 | 73rd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.2 | #611/735 | 17th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 2 | #414/552 | 25th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 18 | #394/548 | 28th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.16 | #111/362 | 70th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 35 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 3.6% | #611/738 | 17th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 18 | #464/739 | 37th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 16 | #448/733 | 39th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 12 | #365/540 | 33rd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.0 | #159/548 | 71st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 6.3% | #589/738 | 20th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.2% | #586/738 | 21st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.2% | #599/738 | 19th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 4.1% | #486/738 | 34th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 2.7% | #657/738 | 11th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 1.9% | #618/738 | 16th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.3% | #473/738 | 36th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 8.6 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| Road3g | -1.0 | -0.7 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| Losses2g | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
9Below cohort
Concern: carries (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
AJ NewberryVanderbiltTae MeadowsTroy· 48% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 47% simJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 47% sim
Rush TDs
Rec yards
Long run
Receptions
Yards / carry
Rush yards
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Clark Lea
Pass share
50.4%
400 pass / 394 run
Plays / game
61.1
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.3%
274 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Clark Lea
Vanderbilt
2024
Clark Lea
Vanderbilt
2025
Clark Lea
Vanderbilt
Played his entire career under Clark Lea.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownGrand Prairie, TX
Height6'1"
Weight197 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey23
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamVanderbilt
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Vanderbilt | RB3 | #320 | #428 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
| 2023 | Vanderbilt | RB3 | #2704 | #3422 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Vanderbilt | SEC | RB | 3 | No. 23 | 6-1 | 197 lb | Grand Prairie, TX |
| 2024 | Vanderbilt | SEC | RB | 3 | No. 23 | 6-1 | 197 lb | Grand Prairie, TX |
| 2023 | Vanderbilt | SEC | RB | 3 | No. 23 | 6-1 | 197 lb | Grand Prairie, TX |