CFB Zeitgeist Score
30
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 82nd percentile.
Gabarri Johnson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
501 PASS YDS · 2 PASS TD · 119 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Oregon State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Oregon State
Returning around him
- 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -15 net (20 in / 35 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Oregon State · Last season: 2-10 · Talent rank #60 · 2026 recruiting class #64
QB · OREGON STATE · PAC-12
Gabarri Johnson
- 2
- #5
- 5-11 | 186 lb
- Tacoma, WA
Heisman Heat
#1004
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Oregon State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8542 | No. 1286 recruit | HighSchool | Oregon State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Oregon State
Composite
0.8542
#1286 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Gabarri Johnson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Gabarri Johnson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 10g
501Pass yards
2Pass TDs
3INT
Per game
50.1Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
651.3Pass yards
3Pass TDs
4INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 501): needs 833/game over remaining 3.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 501): needs 1,166/game over remaining 3.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 7.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 9.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 11/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Gabarri Johnson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Oregon State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Balanced quarterback against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
62 57th
ATT
100 60th
CMP%
62.0% 53rd
Y/A
5.0 19th
Passing Production
YDS
501 54th
TD
2 52nd
INT
3 43rd
Rushing
CAR
34 61st
YDS
119 70th
YPC
3.5 59th
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 15-34vs California | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | 21.7 | |
| Wk 2 | L 27-36vs Fresno State | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 3 | L 14-45@ Texas Tech | 1/3 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | 3.8 | |
| Wk 4 | L 7-41@ Oregon | 2/4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 10.5 | |
| Wk 5 | L 24-27vs Houston | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 7 | L 14-39vs Wake Forest | 6/12 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 3.8 | 15.8 | |
| Wk 8 | W 45-13vs Lafayette | 7/9 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 8.8 | 95.9 | |
| Wk 10 | W 10-7vs Washington State | 10/15 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 10.6 | |
| Wk 11 | L 17-21vs Sam Houston | 29/42 | 286 | 0 | 2 | 6.8 | 13.4 | Season-high 286 yds |
| Wk 12 | L 14-31@ Tulsa | 6/14 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 5.7 | |
| Total | 62/100 | 501 | 2 | 3 | 3.9 | 22.2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Oregon State2-10HC: Trent Bray · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon State | 62 | 100 | 62.0% | 501 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 104.7 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 62 | 100 | 62.0% | 501 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 104.7 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon State | 34 | 119 | 3.5 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 34 | 119 | 3.5 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 501 | #178/382 | 54th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 2 | #198/407 | 52nd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 62 | #165/383 | 57th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 62.0% | #182/383 | 53rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 5.0 | #312/382 | 19th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 119 | #122/408 | 70th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.03 | #200/200 | 0th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 99 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 18.5% | #218/428 | 49th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 100 | #163/407 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 3 | #234/407 | 43rd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 52 | #42/391 | 90th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 34 | #162/408 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.5 | #166/407 | 59th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 29.6% | #219/428 | 49th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 25.3% | #221/428 | 49th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 24.0% | #227/428 | 47th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 17.9% | #219/428 | 49th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 15.9% | #221/428 | 49th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 14.9% | #224/428 | 48th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 7.3% | #220/428 | 49th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #69/258 | 74th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 63.9 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 0.4 |
| Road3g | 18.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 56.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| Losses8g | 48.6 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 9.8 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 110 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 0.8 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
30Below cohort
Elite: interceptions (82nd). Concern: pass tds (3rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.03Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Gabarri JohnsonOregon StateNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 67% simRyan BrownePurdue· 61% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 60% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Completion %
Rush TDs
Pass yards
Yards / att
Pass TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Drew Pyne’s 2024 season.
Drew Pyne
62%match
#2
McKenzie Milton
54%
#3
Owen McCown
54%
#4
Landry Lyddy
54%
#5
Zion Turner
53%
Matches Drew on
Height
Differs from Drew on
Class year (lower)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
TD rate (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Dean DeNobile’s path through Lafayette.
Dean DeNobile
74%match
#2
Jack Chambers
73%
#3
Lindell Stone
70%
#4
Kekoa Visperas
68%
#5
Justin Miller
67%
Matches Dean on
Yards per attempt
Differs from Dean on
Completion % (higher)
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jordan Yates's sophomore season at Georgia Tech (2021).
Jordan Yates
47%match
#2
Kevin Jennings
All-ACC
44%
#3
Noah Vedral
40%
#4
Rhett Rodriguez
39%
#5
Anthony Colandrea
All-Mountain West
37%
Differs from Jordan on
Yards / attempt (lower)
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Trent Bray
Pass share
51.7%
431 pass / 403 run
Plays / game
69.5
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.0%
369 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Trent Bray
Oregon State
Played his entire career under Trent Bray.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownTacoma, WA
Height5'11"
Weight186 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOregon State
ConferencePac-12
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Oregon State | QB2 | #1004 | #954 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2023 | Missouri | QB2 | #520 | #303 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | QB | 2 | No. 5 | 5-11 | 186 lb | Tacoma, WA |
| 2024 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | QB | 2 | No. 5 | 5-11 | 186 lb | Tacoma, WA |
| 2023 | Missouri | SEC | QB | 2 | No. 5 | 5-11 | 186 lb | Tacoma, WA |