The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 70%
Win out 50% · expect 2.4 of 3 more wins
Boise State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Colorado State 72%, Oregon State 74%, San Diego State 93%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 10% to 52%, peaking at 52% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing1st in the Pac-12 · 4-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Maddux Madsen 1,681 · Rushing Dylan Riley 1,049 · Receiving Rasean Jones 545 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Boise State:athletics sitePac-12X@BroncoSportsFBInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #37 | #3 | +24.5✓ +17.5 | @Oregon | L 27-34 128 Loud | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Madsen 181 · Rush Riley 50 · Rec Jones 76 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #29 | #97 | −9.5✓ +8.5 | Memphis | W 38-20 127 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Madsen 221 · Rush Riley 206 · Rec Wright 84 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #31 | #114 | −28.5✗ −14.5 | South Dakota | W 38-24 129 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Madsen 208 · Rush Riley 198 · Rec Jones 95 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #32 | #27 | −8.5✓ +16.5 | @Western Michigan | W 32-7 116 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Madsen 204 · Rush Riley 138 · Rec Wagner 94 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #22 | #62 | −19.5✗ −0.5 | Utah State | W 37-18 120 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Madsen 244 · Rush Riley 93 · Rec Jones 88 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #13 | #49 | −8.5✗ −1.5 | @Fresno State | W 38-31 130 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Pass Madsen 238 · Rush Riley 150 · Rec Riley 64 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #14 | #74 | −14.5✓ +6.5 | @Washington State | W 31-10 134 | 6-1 | 3-0 | Pass Madsen 149 · Rush Riley 128 · Rec Jones 69 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #11 | #33 | −10✗ −9 | Texas State | W 46-45 149 Loud | 7-1 | 4-0 | Pass Madsen 236 · Rush Riley 86 · Rec Jones 117 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #12 | #116 | −17.5 | @Colorado State | 6 pm ET · USA Network72% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #13 | #38 | Oregon State | 6 pm ET · USA Network74% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | San Diego State | 9:30 pm ET · USA Network93% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Boise State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Boise State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Texas State | W 46-45 | 484 | 2 | 37:01 | +0.229 | 46.0% | 1.35 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Washington State | W 31-10 | 407 | 0 | 29:12 | +0.294 | 39.7% | 1.49 | Most explosive |
| Oct 10 | @Fresno State | W 38-31 | 512 | 0 | 38:56 | +0.396 | 46.9% | 1.37 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | Utah State | W 37-18 | 429 | 1 | 32:14 | +0.332 | 45.9% | 1.39 | |
| Sep 26 | @Western Michigan | W 32-7 | 377 | 0 | 36:46 | +0.352 | 52.2% | 1.13 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | South Dakota | W 38-24 | 533 | 2 | 39:26 | +0.299 | 60.0% | 1.02 | Best success rate |
| Sep 12 | Memphis | W 38-20 | 578 | 0 | 39:56 | +0.457 | 50.0% | 1.44 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Oregon | L 27-34 | 274 | 0 | 31:54 | +0.113 | 35.8% | 1.02 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 449 | 0.6 | +0.309 | 47.1% | 1.27 | ||||
Boise State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 4 Texas
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last seven.
Hats off to the leadership in that locker room because when everything was going sideways, and we had some hard conversations on the sideline, they never flinched
52% now · ▲ 13 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Florida Atlantic over UTSA
Thu 7:30 pm · Moves Boise State’s playoff chance by 6 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · Boise State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 9%; 9 wins 40%; 10 wins 50%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pac-12 teams the same season
The little program on the blue turf that keeps beating the giants — and keeps being told it doesn't count.
Broncos fans note the giants schedule them only when they have to — and still rank them behind teams they'd beat.
Boise State · Game-day weather
Typical at Albertsons Stadium: noon Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm Saturdays 85
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Boise State is the G5 program that refused to stay small — Statue of Liberty in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, blue turf, 2024 CFP appearance under Spencer Danielson.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
20th percentile among FBS programs
67 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #13, Ian Kress (WLNS-TV), to #25, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate). 3 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Boise State · 2026