Pac-12 · Spencer Danielson, year 4 (25-9) · Albertsons Stadium · 36,387 · 34,439 avg in 2026
LastW 38–20 vs Memphis · Sat Sep 12 · Dylan Riley 206 rush yds, 11 rec yds
Nextvs South Dakota · Sat Sep 19 · 10 pm ET · Albertsons Stadium · first meeting on record · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #37 | #3 | +24.5✓ | @Oregon | L 27–34 128 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #29 | #97 | -9.5✓ | Memphis | W 38–20 127 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 20 | #31 | #115 | South Dakota | ||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #31 | #23 | @Western Michigan | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Utah State | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 11 | @Fresno State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Washington State | ||||||
| 9 | Nov 1 | Texas State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Colorado State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Oregon State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 22 | San Diego State |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Memphis | W 38–20 | 578 | 0 | 39:56 | +0.457 | 50.0% | 143.6% | |
| Sep 5 | @Oregon | L 27–34 | 274 | 0 | 31:54 | +0.113 | 35.8% | 101.8% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 426 | 0.0 | +0.285 | 42.9% | 122.7% | ||||
The little program on the blue turf that keeps beating the giants — and keeps being told it doesn't count.
Broncos fans note the giants schedule them only when they have to — and still rank them behind teams they'd beat.
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-5 · last season
✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
We took six times the amount of bets on Michigan moneyline compared with Western Michigan
Next Sep 20
vs South Dakota · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Boise State has slipped from elite-tier consistency — their first time below the top-11% tier since 2024 raises questions about sustaining a 9-5 season with #81 talent.
our readdeveloping
Chase Penry is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Latrell Caples produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
our readdeveloping
Sire Gaines does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
our readdeveloping
Spencer Danielson's third season opens with a 9-5 record and a win total rise to 8.5, signaling Boise State's push to sustain its G5 prominence amid a top-81 talent landscape.
our readdeveloping
Cameron Bates is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Chase Penry is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Chase Penry: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Dylan Riley: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Latrell Caples: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Matt Lauter is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Matt Wagner is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Sire Gaines converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Boise State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Boise State has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 22% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 16%. It is a 29-10 record over the last three regular seasons. The data dipped but the coverage hasn't followed. Either the model is ahead of the room or the room is wishful.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Boise State win total rose from 8 to 8.5 (+0.5 wins) between Jun 24 and Jun 25, 2026 (tier C). It is win total up 0.5 from 8.0 to 8.5. The coverage is already ahead of this. The fan base is aligned with the move. The coverage runs aligned with the move.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 259 of 2371 board posts (11%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Boise State is the G5 program that refused to stay small — Statue of Liberty in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, blue turf, 2024 CFP appearance under Spencer Danielson.
The program ledger
since 2025Boise State lineman gets 5th year
IOL under pressure all offseason and the draft took one starter — an extra year of in-house experience at the interior is exactly the kind of quiet fix a 8→8.5 market needs to believe in before Oregon Week One.
QB2 named after fall camp
Fall camp QB2 battles matter more when the IOL is still unsettled and the room behind Maddux Madsen has zero margin — Danielson closing that depth question before week one is the quieter part of the 8.5 story.
2026 QB commits to Boise State
Danielson's locking in the QB room early for '26 — with the O-line depth still sorting itself out around guys like Casey, getting the signal-caller committed before the spring chaos matters more than the timing looks.
Win total: 8 → 8.5 (▲0.5)
Half-win bump with just one draft departure and a #62 class — the market's buying Danielson's rebuild trajectory, but that early Pac-12 test could flip this number fast if the IOL pressure doesn't hold.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
CA leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
111 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Boise State player grew up 670 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Albertsons Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 103 of 114 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
23rd percentile among FBS programs
18 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #19, Murray Evans (Lawton Constitution), to #25, Matt McGavic (WHAS-TV). 50 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
The flags have favored them: 15 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 13 committed, 32 yards to the good.
112 penalty yards committed vs. 144 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Boise State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026