Next game: at Colorado State
Colorado State’s best edge on Boise State is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Boise State offense against Colorado State defense
Colorado State offense against Boise State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.52 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 148 / 222 | 66.7 | 1681 #54 FBS | 7.6 | 15 #27 FBS | 1 | 151.7 | 62 | 81.2 | 8.3 | 2.6 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #10 right now. This week's matchup — QB Madsen operates within the system without forcing anything. Atkinson is the one who pushes it downfield on every look. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.9 54th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.5% 93th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Maddux Madsen's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +1.10 EPA/play | 14 | 1 | 8 / 13 | 61.5 | 131 | 10.1 | 3 | 0 | 222.3 | — | 90.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.34 EPA/play | — | 8 | 165 | 1049 #1 FBS | 6.4 | 9 #16 FBS | 83 | 12.8 | 12.2 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 165 carries and 15 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Riley hits the crease and outruns the angle. Newberry is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry6.7 89th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share8.3% bottom 34th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dylan Riley's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.34 EPA/play | 26 | 5 | 75 | 418 | 5.6 | 4 | 25 | 5.3 | 14.7 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. This week's matchup — RB Gaines just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Newberry is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Weight217 lb 80th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry5.8 68th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sire Gaines's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.08 EPA/play | 22 | 5 | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 | 18 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.88 EPA/play | 19 | 7 | 37 | 545 #58 FBS | 14.7 | 4 #70 FBS | 63 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 37 catches and 6 carries in 7 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Jones wins underneath on volume and route precision. East is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume37 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rasean Jones's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.60 EPA/play | 88 | 8 | 29 | 328 | 11.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 44 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 29 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Wagner shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Olsen is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception11.5 56th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume29 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matt Wagner's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.66 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 21 | 321 | 15.3 | 2 | 40 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Wright beats you over the top. East is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception17.0 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Akeem Wright's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.74 EPA/play | 82 | 5 | 12 | 137 | 11.4 | 2 | 31 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Ford moves the chains on third down. East is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.6 bottom 41th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume12 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ben Ford's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.75 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 14 | 101 | 7.2 | 3 | 13 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Bates moves the chains on third down. East is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception7.8 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate21.4% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cameron Bates's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.29 EPA/play | 87 | 3 | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 | 30 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 3.5 | 4 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate35.7% 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Lopez Sanusi's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 2.5 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.6% 89th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mikaio Edward's full player page | |||||||
| 99 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 92 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 1 | 8 | 49 | 24 | 25 | 3.5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 49 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.1% 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume49 74th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Boen Phelps's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 43 | 8 | 24 | 8 | 16 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume24 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jake Ripp's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 5 | 7 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.9% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate15.2% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Virgin's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 17 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume18 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Logan Brantley's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 55 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.9% bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mana Tuioti's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 95 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate31.2% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate15.6% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Max Stege's full player page | |||||||||
| 91 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 51 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 3 #16 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate2.9% bottom 26th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Travis Anderson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.4% 58th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Derek Ganter Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 10 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume27 bottom 37th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Madden Soliai's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 7 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.5% 69th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaden Mickey's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 8 | 25 | 8 #13 FBS | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate32.0% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Sherrod Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Roman Tillmon's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 6 | 8 | 15 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate46.7% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View JeRico Washington Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 20 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 48 | 8 | 10/11 | 90.9 | 31/31 | 61 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 8 | 24 | 1053 | 43.9 | 58 | 7 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.75 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 4 | 59 | 14.8 | 1 | 72 |
| 34 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Biggest plays from Boise State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Boise State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 0:19 · Oregon down 10Dante Moore finds Jamari Johnson for a 27-yard touchdownBoise State at Oregon, week 1Q2, 0:19 · Oregon 14, Boise State 17Oregon scored with 0:19 left in the halfOregon scored with 0:19 left in the halfJamari Johnson 27 yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q1, 11:33 · Boise State tiedMaddux Madsen finds Matt Wagner for a 34-yard touchdownBoise State at Western Michigan, week 4Q1, 11:33 · Boise State 8, Western Michigan 0Boise State opened the scoringBoise State opened the scoringM.Madsen pass complete short middle to M.Wagner caught at WMU15, for 34 yards to the WMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN Z.Martinez rush attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 10:14 · Boise State breaks the tieMaddux Madsen finds Sire Gaines for a 38-yard touchdownBoise State at Oregon, week 1Q2, 10:14 · Boise State 14, Oregon 7Boise State took the lead in the second quarterBoise State took the lead in the second quarterM.Madsen pass complete short left to S.Gaines caught at ORE33, for 38 yards to the ORE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 1:20 · Boise State down 7, ties itMaddux Madsen finds Matt Wagner for a 7-yard touchdownBoise State at Oregon, week 1Q3, 1:20 · Boise State 24, Oregon 24Maddux Madsen's third touchdown pass of the gameMaddux Madsen's third touchdown pass of the gameM.Madsen pass complete short left to M.Wagner caught at ORE00, for 7 yards to the ORE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q2, 13:39 · South Dakota breaks the tieAustyn Modrzewski finds Tysen Boze for a 5-yard touchdownSouth Dakota at Boise State, week 3Q2, 13:39 · South Dakota 14, Boise State 7South Dakota took the lead in the second quarterSouth Dakota took the lead in the second quarterA.Modrzewski pass complete short right to T.Boze caught at BOI01, for 5 yards to the BOI00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q1, 0:04 · Boise State down 7, ties itMaddux Madsen finds Rasean Jones for a 9-yard touchdownSouth Dakota at Boise State, week 3Q1, 0:04 · Boise State 7, South Dakota 7Boise State tied the game in the first quarterBoise State tied the game in the first quarterM.Madsen pass complete short left to R.Jones caught at USD04, for 9 yards to the USD00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Boise State lost at Oregon after being 85% to win; the closest win was against Texas State, down to 5%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Boise State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Boise State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Boise StateDylan Riley leads Boise State with 1,049 rushing yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+14 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Boise State fields an elite offense behind a solid defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Boise State reads strongest in EPA / play (top 7%) and passing EPA (top 10%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Boise State sits at the 0th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Boise State is worth +3.6 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 39th percentile of 133 programs
79% at home, 70% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (38-10 home, 35-15 away). Interval ±3.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Boise State has beaten the number by +0.3 more at home than away over 104 games. That is inside the ±5.2 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Albertsons Stadium seats 36,387 and has averaged 95% full (34,512, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 606 miles to get here since 2018 — 30th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 11% of the 2026 roster (11 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 54 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downChase Penry is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogLatrell Caples produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- Garbage timeSire Gaines does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- Deep threatCameron Bates is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatChase Penry is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatMatt Lauter is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatMatt Wagner is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Short yardageSire Gaines converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines split the carries (163/238 vs 75/238) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Rasean Jones (WR) and Matt Wagner (TE) split the targets (48/86 vs 38/86) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Boise State actually scores
96th percentile quality, 4th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Boise State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 88th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 95th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Boise State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
77th percentile success on standard downs, 92nd on passing downs — a 15-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Boise State by half
1st-half offense ranks 96th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 96th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Boise State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.31; 96th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.12. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.28 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Boise State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 212-play sample) — mid-pack, 77 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Boise State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 197-play sample) — mid-pack, 43 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 33% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
2 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in at a normal clip: 20% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.
7 interceptions of 35 disrupted passes (28 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 45 penalties committed vs. 42 drawn on opponents, 33 yards behind.
429 penalty yards committed vs. 396 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Boise State
Most similar programs · Boise StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 42°, between 35° and 49° in about 7 in 10 games (35 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 61°, and 8 in 10 ran between 36° and 80° (49 of 58 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.