Standing3rd in the Pac-12 · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jayden Denegal 896 · Rushing Javion Kinnard 613 · Receiving Jaylon Hawkins 357 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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Schedule and results
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #36 | #252 | −38.5✗ −5.5 | Portland State | W 53-20 145 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Denegal 137 · Rush Kinnard 79 · Rec Lowe 56 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #40 | #59 | +13.5✗ −4.5 | @UCLA | L 10-28 122 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Denegal 45 · Rush Sutton 81 · Rec Ford 19 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #45 | #82 | −3✗ −16 | James Madison | L 13-26 151 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Denegal 209 · Rush Kinnard 181 · Rec Kinnard 70 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #54 | #44 | +2.5✗ −22.5 | @Toledo | L 16-41 138 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Denegal 206 · Rush Lucas 18 · Rec Bostick 69 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #68 | #35 | +10✓ +12 | Texas State | W 31-29 154 Firestorm | 2-3 | 1-0 | Pass Denegal 109 · Rush Lucas 111 · Rec Acevedo 47 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #70 | #38 | +14.5✗ −37.5 | @Oregon State | L 14-66 140 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Denegal 78 · Rush Kinnard 43 · Rec Hawkins 43 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #94 | #46 | +6.5✓ +9.5 | Fresno State | W 26-23 127 | 3-4 | 2-1 | Pass Denegal 112 · Rush Sutton 110 · Rec Hawkins 84 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #88 | #104 | −1.5✗ −8.5 | @Colorado State | L 49-56 143 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Saunders 369 · Rush Sutton 98 · Rec Hawkins 164 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #97 | #84 | −2.5✓ +3.5 | Washington State | W 26-20 131 | 4-5 | 3-2 | Pass Saunders 102 · Rush Sutton 115 · Rec Emanuel Jr. 47 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #88 | #58 | Utah State | 9:30 pm ET · USA Network35% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Boise State | 9:30 pm ET · USA Network7% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for San Diego State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for San Diego State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Washington State | W 26-20 | 306 | 1 | 26:55 | +0.252 | 41.7% | 1.49 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Colorado State | L 49-56 | 565 | 2 | 27:24 | +0.341 | 50.7% | 1.51 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Fresno State | W 26-23 | 384 | 1 | 28:26 | +0.140 | 42.9% | 1.24 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | @Oregon State | L 14-66 | 147 | 1 | 17:42 | -0.332 | 20.8% | 1.01 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Texas State | W 31-29 | 239 | 0 | 19:27 | -0.132 | 35.8% | 1.04 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | @Toledo | L 16-41 | 296 | 2 | 26:35 | -0.169 | 30.4% | 1.35 | |
| Sep 19 | James Madison | L 13-26 | 401 | 2 | 29:41 | -0.079 | 32.1% | 1.39 | |
| Sep 12 | @UCLA | L 10-28 | 189 | 1 | 25:05 | -0.234 | 29.8% | 0.74 | |
| Sep 5 | Portland State | W 53-20 | 394 | 3 | 26:35 | +0.228 | 46.9% | 1.16 | Blowout win |
| Season average (9 games) | 325 | 1.4 | +0.001 | 36.8% | 1.21 | ||||
San Diego State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
What’s ahead
What fans said
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
San Diego State has won three of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I’m excited that we were able to get that win tonight no matter how many yards I had or how many touchdowns I had
Playoff chance, day by day
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · San Diego State · 2026
Range of outcomes · San Diego State · 2026San Diego State’s most likely season is 7-6, a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 8-5.
What each outcome looks like
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP, so a ceiling can run past 12 games. Every scenario starts from the 4-5 record so far.
More in this tab
This week and this season
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Pac-12 teams the same season
Team story
San Diego State is the program that gave football Air Coryell and Marshall Faulk, built a stadium of its own at Snapdragon, and — after a 3-9 bottom and a 9-4 rebuild — finally walks through the door into the Pac-12 in 2026.
Aztec fans are tired of being the program everyone respects and nobody ranks — the California school with two Hall-of-Fame names in its past that kept getting filed under 'G5.' They'll tell you the…
Game-day weather
San Diego State · Game-day weather
Typical at Snapdragon Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 99, noon Saturdays 89
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Game day
San Diego State is the Mountain West program whose 2010s-2020s Brady Hoke + Rocky Long + Brady Hoke (return) era + 3-3-5 defensive scheme + Snapdragon Stadium 2022 reset define what California-G5-football looks like.
Open questions
The story
Roster and recruiting
Roster
Roster reload: San Diego State
2026 snapshot, Nov 4Full roster (151 players)
Top commits
Top 1 commits
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Mood vs. history
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2019
1st percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. the line
(percentile among FBS)
(56th among FBS)
Rivals
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Follow
Follow San Diego State
- Athletics siteSan Diego State Athletics
- Athletics siteSan Diego State football on the athletics site
- On YouTubeuser/goaztecscom
Each link was checked against two outside sites.