CFB Zeitgeist Score
17
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by long catch at the 42nd percentile.
Mikey Welsh
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
129 REC YDS · 12 REC · 0 REC TD
In Portal · 2026
In transfer portal
2025San Diego State
DestinationTBD
WR · SAN DIEGO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Mikey Welsh
- 3
- #14
- 5-9 | 170 lb
- Anaheim, CA
Heisman Heat
#4950
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR04 · Rotational
Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
San Diego State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | San Diego State -> -- | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Mikey Welsh
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Mikey Welsh
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 9g
129Rec yards
12Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
14.3Rec yards
1Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
186.3Rec yards
17Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 129): needs 142.8/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 129): needs 217.8/game over remaining 4.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 12): needs 12/game over remaining 4.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 12): needs 17/game over remaining 4.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 2.5/game over remaining 4.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Mikey Welsh's story is about how role and output meet each other. For San Diego State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
12 52nd
YDS
129 49th
YPR
10.8 39th
TD
0 45th
Rushing
CAR
2 53rd
YDS
4 30th
YPC
2.0 28th
TD
0 81st
Returns
PR YDS
31 43rd
PR AVG
3.9 20th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 9 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-0vs Stony Brook | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 0 | 44 | Season-high 44 yds |
| Wk 5 | W 6-3@ Northern Illinois | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 6 | W 45-24vs Colorado State | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 10 | W 24-7vs Wyoming | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 11 | L 6-38@ Hawai'i | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 12 | W 17-7vs Boise State | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 13 | W 25-3vs San José State | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 14 | L 17-23@ New Mexico | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bowl | L 47-49vs North Texas | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Total | 12 | 129 | 12.7 | 0 | 44 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023San Diego State4-8HC: Brady Hoke · Run-leaning
2025San Diego State9-4HC: Sean Lewis · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 12 | 129 | 10.8 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | San Diego State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 12 | 129 | 10.8 | 0 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 2 | 4 | -- | 31 | -- |
| 2023 | San Diego State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 2 | 4 | -- | 31 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 12 | #533/1110 | 52nd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 129 | #571/1107 | 49th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 10.8 | #672/1106 | 39th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return yards | 31 | #129/224 | 43rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 10.3% | #475/1137 | 58th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 4 | #277/397 | 30th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 3 | #299/346 | 14th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 2 | #194/407 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.0 | #283/393 | 28th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 44 | #368/1105 | 67th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt returns | 8 | #91/237 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return avg | 3.9 | #178/222 | 20th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.0% | #598/1137 | 47th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.8% | #567/1137 | 50th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 3.8% | #645/1137 | 43rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 3.6% | #611/1137 | 46th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 2.8% | #713/1137 | 37th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 2.5% | #861/1137 | 24th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.6% | #259/1137 | 77th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 1.5 | 18.2 | 15.3 | 0.0 |
| Road3g | 1.0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 1.8 | 20.7 | 14.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 0.3 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 1.2 | 20.5 | 21.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 1.4 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
17Below cohort
Concern: receptions (2nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Mikey WelshSan Diego StateMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 55% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 53% simChauncy CobbArkansas State· 51% sim
Long catch
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Lincoln Victor’s 2022 season.
Lincoln Victor
85%match
#2
Ben Ratzlaff
78%
#3
Bryce Miller
82%
#4
James Phillips
82%
#5
Isaac Ross
81%
Matches Lincoln on
Yards / reception
Class year
Weight
Differs from Lincoln on
Reception volume (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Shawn Harris Jr.'s junior season at Massachusetts (2023).
Shawn Harris Jr.
93%match
#2
Ahmarean Brown
80%
#3
Kevin Davis
80%
#4
James Phillips
79%
#5
Chandler Pittman
79%
Matches Shawn on
Class year
Total EPA (college ability)
EPA / play (adj)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sean Lewis
Pass share
35.3%
290 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
63.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.6%
224 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2025era →
Sean Lewis
San Diego State
Coaching transition mid-career: Brady Hoke → Sean Lewis. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownAnaheim, CA
Height5'9"
Weight170 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey14
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan Diego State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | San Diego State | WR3 | #4950 | #5436 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | San Diego State | WR3 | #5102 | #5396 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | San Diego State | WR3 | #4311 | #4146 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 5-9 | 170 lb | Anaheim, CA |
| 2024 | San Diego State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 5-9 | 170 lb | Anaheim, CA |
| 2023 | San Diego State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 5-9 | 170 lb | Anaheim, CA |
| 2022 | San Diego State | Mountain West | WR | 3 | No. 14 | 5-9 | 170 lb | Anaheim, CA |