The Zeitgeist List · coaching
Sean Lewis
Followed Brady Hoke. Sean Lewis slid San Diego State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.
The journeyman
36–44
2018–now · 2 stints
← all coachesIn his own words
The good was really good tonight, and the bad was really bad
The defense and special teams put us in a very advantageous spot to score quickly
You don’t know until you turn the lights on and the real bullets start flying
Structurally, they are very sound
I’m looking forward to some of these new characters as we step underneath the lights together for the first time, and we walk out to the battlefield together for the first time to see the look in their eye
When the opportunity presented itself, he earned it
He’s shown a tremendous amount through his character and his body of work.
This is the first time for me since the 2020 season to 2021 where there’s not a new quarterback that I’m breaking in
I know the quality of the work we’re going to be doing early in camp is going to be so much better than it was a year ago
From a leadership standpoint, what’s been really tangible this summer is that because of the work that he’s done, the respect that he’s earned in the locker room [and] the toughness that he showed playing through injury
All the stuff that isn’t seen on the tape we’ve got to get a lot better with
We will be able to do a little bit of everything with those guys
Anytime you get to come here and share with the community like we did tonight on the first Saturday at Snapdragon, it’s really special
We’ve had a really good camp through nine practices; congratulations; now it’s time to do more hard work at Snapdragon, and your loved ones and people in the community are going to see you
We were very intentional when (last) season ended up obviously with the injuries that occurred, in making sure that we had enough talent in that room
Operationally, he was really clean; he was making good decisions, he was decisive
I think all night long Malachi Finau and [Tano] Letuli inside have been really disruptive and anytime that you can create some dent inside that makes life really hard
Our standards and expectations are higher than any external labels that get put on it
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).
Kent State, 5 seasons
+0.4
Regional Program V → Regional Program V.
San Diego State, 3 seasons (active)
−2.4
Regional Program I → Regional Program I.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Kent State7.5pt#181 of 258 · a typical amount
San Diego State14.2pt#61 of 258 · more than most
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
4–1 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Jason Candle.
Rivalry record
4–1
80.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
14–13
51.9% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$4,851,113
bigger than 42% of FBS buyouts
The toughest matchup
vs. Jason Candle0–3
3 meetings, 2018–2022
’18 L · blew a 7-pt lead’19 L’22 L · blew a 21-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty0–1 0.0%
Power Program1–9 10.0%
National Program1–7 12.5%
Regional Program24–24 50.0%
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Offense marginal impact
+0.31
#54 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.09
#218 of 325 · a typical amount
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
2024–now
San Diego Statecaretaker
National Program III → Regional Program I
Sean Lewis slid San Diego State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.
9th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
-19.3 pts
#176 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+5.2 pts
#83 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Brady Hoke (2009–2023).
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 3–9 | 9–4 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #72 | #78 | #83 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||
| Pass rate | 46.9 | 34.8 | 32.8 | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | — | Matt Johnson | Matt Johnson | |
| DC | Eric Schmidt | Rob Aurich | Demetrius Sumler | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 26 | 29 | 27 | |
| Defense | 11 | 94 | 42 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 48.8 | 34.7 | 35.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 41.6 | 20.0 | 18.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 33.3 | 37.3 | — | |
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
69
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
87
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-18
#31 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 243 lbs
across 49 of 69 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.6 lbs
#104 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#234 of 255 · less than most
Top states: CA (22), OH (4), FL (3), GA (2), IL (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
54.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.8
position-weighted
Net
-3.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: AJ Duffy (QB) from Florida State
Biggest loss: AJ Duffy (QB) to New Haven
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Eric Schmidt → Rob Aurich · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Rob Aurich → Demetrius Sumler · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
208 lbs
6′3″ avg · #523 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
205 lbs
5′10″ avg · #468 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
188 lbs
6′1″ avg · #606 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
238 lbs
6′5″ avg · #603 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
317 lbs
6′6″ avg · #86 of 779 · more than most
Edge
248 lbs
6′3″ avg · #134 of 188 · a typical amount
Linebacker
226 lbs
6′2″ avg · #508 of 772 · a typical amount
Safety
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #300 of 346 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Linebacker via the portal
86%
#2 of 225 stints
Buys Interior line via the portal
78%
#13 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to North Texas 47–49 Isleta New Mexico Bowl
1 NFL Draft pick: Chris Johnson (2026)
12–13
2018–2022
Kent Statecaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program V
Sean Lewis held Kent State at Regional Program V for 5 seasons.
14th-best Kent State tenure of 19 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+27.4 pts
#16 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-10.7 pts
#150 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Paul Haynes (2013–2017) · succeeded by Kenni Burns (2023–2024).
| Season | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 2–10 | 7–6 | 3–1 | 7–7 | 5–7 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | — | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #100 | #102 | #108 | #117 | #89 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||
| Pass rate | 46.0 | 39.2 | 38.8 | 38.5 | 40.3 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||
| OC | Andrew Sowder | Andrew Sowder | Andrew Sowder | Andrew Sowder | Andrew Sowder | |
| DC | Tom Kaufman | Tom Kaufman | Tom Kaufman | Tom Kaufman | Jeremiah Johnson | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | 20 | 65 | 91 | 86 | 58 | |
| Defense | 38 | 10 | 33 | 22 | 32 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 49.8 | 47.9 | 41.7 | 44.3 | 40.2 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 38.5 | 30.8 | 29.2 | 28.7 | 34.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 36.2 | 17.0 | 63.6 | 34.6 | 38.6 | |
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
11
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
21
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-10
#163 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 230 lbs
across 8 of 11 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.1 lbs
#214 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: FL (2), OH (2), DC (1), CA (1), MN (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
31.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
46.0
position-weighted
Net
-14.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Taj Mustapha (WR) from Wisconsin
Biggest loss: Woody Barrett (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Tom Kaufman → Jeremiah Johnson · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
215 lbs
6′3″ avg · #320 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
206 lbs
5′9″ avg · #432 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #560 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
240 lbs
6′5″ avg · #553 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
307 lbs
6′5″ avg · #484 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
267 lbs
6′3″ avg · #705 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
235 lbs
6′2″ avg · #116 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
182 lbs
6′0″ avg · #713 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
88%
#162 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2019: Beat Utah State 51–41 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl2021: Lost to Wyoming 38–52 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
24–31
The Zeitgeist List · coordinating
Sean Lewis
Offensive coordinator across 3 programs, 3 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.