San Diego State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2024–now

Sean Lewis Steady

Sean Lewis slid San Diego State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−2.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 46% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Nord’s UTEP run (2000–2003)

9th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Brady Hoke (2020–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3-9	9-4	4-5
Postseason	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#72	#78	#83
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.9	34.8	42.5
Coordinators
OC	—	Matt Johnson	Matt Johnson
DC	Eric Schmidt	Rob Aurich	Demetrius Sumler
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	26	29	17
Defense	11	94	26
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	48.8	34.7	35.9
Red-zone pass%	41.6	20.0	32.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	37.3	25.0

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-19.3 pts

#177 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

+5.1 pts

#79 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-18

#31 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 243 lbs

across 49 of 69 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+4.4 lbs

#116 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#225 of 255 · bottom quarter

Top states: CA (22), OH (4), FL (3), GA (2), IL (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

54.3

position-weighted

Talent lost

57.8

position-weighted

Net

-3.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: AJ Duffy (QB) from Florida State

Biggest loss: AJ Duffy (QB) to New Haven

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Eric Schmidt → Rob Aurich · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Rob Aurich → Demetrius Sumler · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

208 lbs

6′3″ avg · #523 of 767 · middle half

Running back

205 lbs

5′10″ avg · #468 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

188 lbs

6′1″ avg · #606 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

238 lbs

6′5″ avg · #603 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

317 lbs

6′6″ avg · #86 of 779 · top quarter

Edge

248 lbs

6′3″ avg · #134 of 188 · middle half

Linebacker

226 lbs

6′2″ avg · #508 of 772 · middle half

Safety

191 lbs

6′0″ avg · #300 of 346 · bottom quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Linebacker via the portal

86%

#2 of 225 stints

Buys Interior line via the portal

78%

#13 of 224 stints

Postseason detail2025: Lost to North Texas 47-49 Isleta New Mexico Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Chris Johnson (2026)

−2.4

16-18

2009–2010, 2020–2023

Brady Hoke Steady ◆ COY

Brady Hoke slid the Aztecs from Regional Program III to National Program II in 6 seasons.

Swung 21.7 points of pass rate — #15 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

−1.5 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 38% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dean Pees’s Kent State run (1998–2003)

4th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Chuck Long (2006–2008) · succeeded by Rocky Long (2011–2019) · returned in 2020 · succeeded by Sean Lewis (2024–now).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2009	2010	2020	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	4-8	9-4	4-4	12-2	7-6	4-8
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	W bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#85	#75	#103	#62	#65	#78
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	57.7	49.2	36.1	38.7	42.1	41.3
Coordinators
OC	—	—	Jeff Hecklinski	Jeff Hecklinski	Jeff Hecklinski	Ryan Lindley
DC	—	—	Kurt Mattix	Kurt Mattix	Kurt Mattix	Kurt Mattix
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	65	75	12	32	37	21
Defense	41	76	100	85	94	25
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	40.8	43.1	33.9	39.9	36.8	31.4
Red-zone pass%	49.4	44.7	32.6	36.9	43.2	30.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	14.3	21.9	48.5	22.6	20.9	32.7

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-16.4 pts

#167 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

+32.9 pts

#7 of 208 · top quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.2★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-18

#172 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 236 lbs

across 10 of 13 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+3.6 lbs

#138 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: CA (5), TX (3), AZ (1), FL (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

46.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

52.8

position-weighted

Net

-6.0

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Braxton Burmeister (QB) from Virginia Tech

Biggest loss: Carson Baker (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Jeff Hecklinski → Ryan Lindley · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 36.8% → 31.4% (-5.4 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

216 lbs

6′3″ avg · #306 of 767 · middle half

Running back

200 lbs

5′10″ avg · #639 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

192 lbs

6′1″ avg · #439 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

252 lbs

6′5″ avg · #142 of 731 · top quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

309 lbs

6′5″ avg · #398 of 779 · middle half

D-line

268 lbs

6′3″ avg · #689 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

227 lbs

6′2″ avg · #457 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

193 lbs

6′0″ avg · #223 of 771 · middle half

Safety

196 lbs

6′0″ avg · #208 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

91%

#163 of 188 stints

Grows Quarterback from high school

83%

#189 of 206 stints

Postseason detail2010: Beat Navy 35-14 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2021: Beat UTSA 38-24 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl2022: Lost to Middle Tennessee 23-25 EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Vincent Brown (2011), Demarco Sampson (2011), Darren Hall (2021), Cameron Thomas (2022), Daniel Bellinger (2022), Matt Araiza (2022), Zachary Thomas (2022)

Coach of the Year: Mountain West Coach of the Year (2021)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Matt Araiza (2021), Cameron Thomas (2021)

−1.5

40-32

2011–2019

Rocky Long Builder

Rocky Long raised the Aztecs from Regional Program III to National Program II.

Swung 20.8 points of pass rate — #21 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+17.3 pts over 9 seasons · top 7% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: June Jones’s Hawai'i run (1999–2007)

3rd-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Brady Hoke (2009–2010) · succeeded by Brady Hoke (2020–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	8-5	9-4	8-5	7-6	11-3	11-3	10-3	7-6	10-3
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#78	#75	#69	#73	#70	#82	#77	#79	#91
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	48.0	34.8	47.5	40.3	27.2	28.7	30.5	37.5	42.6
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	Bob Toledo	Jeff Horton	Jeff Horton	Jeff Horton	Jeff Horton	Jeff Horton
DC	—	—	—	—	—	Rocky Long	Danny Gonzales	Zach Arnett	Zach Arnett
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	58	71	36	33	80	72	87	34	16
Defense	33	80	68	79	99	93	73	57	97
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	38.6	38.0	35.8	33.2	16.0	23.3	24.6	25.3	31.9
Red-zone pass%	40.5	35.9	24.8	27.9	27.4	23.2	34.0	31.3	26.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	35.5	47.5	48.0	16.3	20.5	24.4	13.8	29.8	31.6

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+10.4 pts

#62 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+35.9 pts

#4 of 208 · top quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Bob Toledo → Jeff Horton · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 33.2% → 16.0% (-17.3 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Rocky Long → Danny Gonzales · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Danny Gonzales → Zach Arnett · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2011: Lost to Louisiana 30-32 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2012: Lost to BYU 6-23 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2013: Beat Buffalo 49-24 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2014: Lost to Navy 16-17 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2015: Beat Cincinnati 42-7 Hawai'i Bowl2016: Beat Houston 34-10 Las Vegas Bowl Presented By Geico2017: Lost to Army 35-42 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2018: Lost to Ohio 0-27 Dxl Frisco Bowl2019: Beat Central Michigan 48-11 New Mexico Bowl

17 NFL Draft picks: Ronnie Hillman (2012), Miles Burris (2012), Ryan Lindley (2012), Jerome Long (2012), Gavin Escobar (2013), Leon McFadden (2013), Brice Butler (2013), Nat Berhe (2014) + 9 more

+17.3

81-38

2006–2008

Chuck Long Steady

Chuck Long slid San Diego State from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

Swung 22.2 points of pass rate — #10 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

−7.8 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 21% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Scott’s South Florida run (2020–2022)

11th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Tom Craft (2002–2005) · succeeded by Brady Hoke (2009–2010).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2006	2007	2008
Record & result
Record	3-9	4-8	2-10
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#70	#68	#83
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	41.1	56.1	63.3
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	37	58	30
Defense	51	3	7
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	37.1	47.7	59.2
Red-zone pass%	19.6	32.4	50.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	22.2	25.0	16.1

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

100%

#198 of 224 stints

5 NFL Draft picks: Kevin O'Connell (2008), Tyler Schmitt (2008), Brett Swain (2008), Chaz Schilens (2008), Lance Louis (2009)

−7.8

9-27

2002–2005

Tom Craft Steady

Tom Craft slid San Diego State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−3.4 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 46% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Matt Rhule’s Nebraska run (2023–now)

10th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Ted Tollner (1994–2001) · succeeded by Chuck Long (2006–2008).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2002	2003	2004	2005
Record & result
Record	4-9	6-6	4-7	5-7
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	#45	#44
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	54.1	46.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	54	72
Defense	—	—	54	12
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	49.4	42.2
Red-zone pass%	—	—	55.0	39.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	30.8

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

7 NFL Draft picks: J.R. Tolver (2003), Jeff Shoate (2004), Matt McCoy (2005), Kirk Morrison (2005), Marviel Underwood (2005), Freddie Keiaho (2006), Jeff Webb (2006)

−3.4

19-29

1994–2001

Ted Tollner Steady

Ted Tollner held San Diego State at National Program III for 8 seasons.

+1.7 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 47% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bronco Mendenhall’s Virginia run (2016–2021)

6th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Al Luginbill (1989–1993) · succeeded by Tom Craft (2002–2005).

Season	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Record & result
Record	4-7	8-4	8-3	5-7	7-5	5-6	3-8	3-8
Postseason	—	—	—	—	L bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1998: Lost to North Carolina 13-20 Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Jamal Duff (1995), Will Blackwell (1997), Nate Jacquet (1997), George Jones (1997), Ricky Parker (1997), Kyle Turley (1998), Az-zahir Hakim (1998), Ephraim Salaam (1998) + 6 more

+1.7

43-48

1989–1993

Al Luginbill Steady

Al Luginbill moved the Aztecs from Regional Program I to National Program III in 5 seasons.

+4.3 pts over 5 seasons · top 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Keith Gilbertson’s California run (1992–1995)

8th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Dennis Stolz (1986–1988) · succeeded by Ted Tollner (1994–2001).

Season	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993
Record & result
Record	6-5-1	6-5	8-4-1	5-5-1	6-6
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1991: Lost to Tulsa 17-28 Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Dan McGwire (1991), Pio Sagapolutele (1991), Nick Subis (1991), Patrick Rowe (1992), Ray Rowe (1992), Marshall Faulk (1994), Darnay Scott (1994), Ramondo Stallings (1994)

+4.3

31-25-3

1986–1988

Dennis Stolz Steady

Dennis Stolz slid San Diego State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

−5.2 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 35% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Hackett’s USC run (1998–2000)

7th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Doug Scovil (1981–1985) · succeeded by Al Luginbill (1989–1993).

Season	1986	1987	1988
Record & result
Record	8-4	5-7	3-8
Postseason	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1986: Lost to Iowa 38-39 Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Robert Awalt (1987), Alfred Jackson (1989)

−5.2

16-19

1981–1985

Doug Scovil Steady

Doug Scovil slid the Aztecs from National Program II to National Program III in 5 seasons.

−4.1 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 42% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Keasler’s UL Monroe run (1999–2002)

5th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Claude Gilbert (1973–1980) · succeeded by Dennis Stolz (1986–1988).

13 NFL Draft picks: Matt Kofler (1982), Vernon Dean (1982), Clinton Sampson (1983), Todd Seabaugh (1983), Phil Smith (1983), Doug Reed (1983), Sean McNanie (1984), Tory Nixon (1985) + 5 more

−4.1

24-32-3

1973–1980

Claude Gilbert Steady

Claude Gilbert moved the Aztecs from National Program I to Power Program III in 8 seasons.

−3.3 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 30% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Joe Tiller’s Wyoming run (1991–1996)

1st-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Don Coryell (1969–1972) · succeeded by Doug Scovil (1981–1985).

16 NFL Draft picks: Claudie Minor (1974), Jesse Freitas (1974), Monte Jackson (1975), Duke Fergerson (1976), Craig Penrose (1976), Greg Boyd (1976), Dave Turner (1978), Ronnie Smith (1978) + 8 more

−3.3

61-26-2

1969–1972

Don Coryell Steady

Don Coryell held the Aztecs at National Program I for 4 seasons.

2nd-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Claude Gilbert (1973–1980).

15 NFL Draft picks: Dennis Shaw (1970), Billie Hayes (1970), Lon Woodard (1970), Ken Burrow (1971), Henry Allison (1971), Tom Shellabarger (1971), Tom Hayes (1971), Willie Buchanon (1972) + 7 more

National Program I

36-8