The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jeff Tedford

Followed Tim DeRuyter. Jeff Tedford raised Fresno State from Regional Program III to National Program II.

Peak, then fade

127–79

2002–2023 · 2 stints

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

California, 11 seasons

+19.7

National Program III → National Program I.

Fresno State, 5 seasons

+12.8

Regional Program II → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Fresno State12.4pt#86 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

13–9 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Steve Sarkisian.

Rivalry record

13–9

59.1% · 3 rivals

One-score games

31–36

46.3% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–3

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Stanford7–464%

Boise State3–350%

San Diego State3–260%

The toughest matchup

vs. Steve Sarkisian0–4

4 meetings, 2009–2012

’09 L’10 L’11 L’12 L

0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–3 0.0%

Blue Blood

2–9 18.2%

Power Program

18–25 41.9%

National Program

51–30 63.0%

Regional Program

43–11 79.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.40

#40 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.37

#25 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2017–2023

Fresno Statebuilderborderline

Regional Program III → National Program II

Jeff Tedford raised Fresno State from Regional Program III to National Program II.

3rd-best Fresno State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+19.7 pts

#43 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

+23.5 pts

#21 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tim DeRuyter (2012–2016) · succeeded by Tim Skipper (2024–2024).

Season	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	10–4	12–2	4–8	3–3	1–0	10–4	9–4
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#84	#92	#87	#121	#74	#72	#83
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	45.9	46.8	48.6	53.3	53.9	50.4	58.3
Coordinators
OC	Kalen DeBoer	Kalen DeBoer	Ryan Grubb	Ryan Grubb	Ryan Grubb	Kirby Moore	Pat McCann
DC	Orlondo Steinauer	Bert Watts	Bert Watts	William Inge	William Inge	Kevin Coyle	Kevin Coyle
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	63	81	63	58	57	87	50
Defense	92	91	47	41	87	81	51
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	39.9	44.9	43.4	53.1	58.6	53.9	57.6
Red-zone pass%	31.9	40.0	42.6	50.8	56.6	45.6	55.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	17.0	19.0	25.0	47.6	22.5	20.6	20.0

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.2★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-25

#134 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 228 lbs

across 22 of 28 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+0.7 lbs

#219 of 255 · less than most

Avg. class year

#7 of 255 · more than most

Top states: CA (11), AZ (2), OH (2), WA (1), IL (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

57.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.7

position-weighted

Net

+0.7

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Mikey Keene (QB) from UCF

Biggest loss: Jaylen Henderson (QB) to Texas A&M

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Kirby Moore → Pat McCann · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 53.9% → 57.6% (+3.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 17% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Orlondo Steinauer → Bert Watts · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

203 lbs

6′1″ avg · #648 of 767 · less than most

Running back

197 lbs

5′10″ avg · #715 of 791 · less than most

Wide receiver

184 lbs

6′0″ avg · #728 of 791 · less than most

Tight end

248 lbs

6′4″ avg · #242 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

307 lbs

6′4″ avg · #483 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

277 lbs

6′3″ avg · #531 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

226 lbs

6′1″ avg · #520 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

190 lbs

6′1″ avg · #377 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Running back from high school

73%

#161 of 208 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2017: Beat Houston 33–27 Hawai'i Bowl2018: Beat Arizona State 31–20 Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl2021: Beat UTEP 31–24 PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl2022: Beat Washington State 29–6 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel2023: Beat New Mexico State 37–10 Isleta New Mexico Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Keesean Johnson (2019), Mykal Walker (2020), Netane Muti (2020), DaRon Bland (2022), Jake Haener (2023)

45–22

2002–2012

Californiabuilder

National Program III → Power Program III

Jeff Tedford raised California from National Program III to Power Program III.

3rd-best California tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Followed Tom Holmoe (1997–2001) · succeeded by Sonny Dykes (2013–2016).

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

46 NFL Draft picks: Langston Walker (2002), Scott Fujita (2002), Kyle Boller (2003), Nnamdi Asomugha (2003), Scott Tercero (2003), Tully Banta-Cain (2003), Mark Wilson (2004), Adimchinobe Echemandu (2004) + 38 more

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