The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jason Candle

Jason Candle moved Toledo from Regional Program I to National Program II in 11 seasons.

81–44
2015–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Toledo, 11 seasons (active)
+7.9
National Program III → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Toledo2015–2025– 0.3ptUConn2026–2026– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Toledo11.4pt#102 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

11–6 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
11–6
64.7% · 2 rivals
One-score games
20–20
50.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
1–3 25.0%
National Program
4–8 33.3%
Regional Program
53–27 66.2%

Coaching career

2026–now
UConn
too new to grade yet

7th-best UConn tenure of 8 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Mora (2022–2025).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
53
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
45
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+8
#1 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 230 lbs
across 46 of 53 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-1.2 lbs
#240 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
So
#256 of 255 · less than most
Top states: OH (10), FL (6), GA (5), MI (3), NJ (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.0
position-weighted
Net
+0.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jake Merklinger (QB) from Tennessee
Biggest loss: Nick Evers (QB) to Missouri
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Interior line via the portal
100%
#1 of 224 stints
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
82%
#7 of 243 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Skyler Bell (2026)

0–0
2015–now
Toledocaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program I → National Program II
Jason Candle moved Toledo from Regional Program I to National Program II in 11 seasons.

3rd-best Toledo tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+23.6 pts
#26 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+19.1 pts
#32 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Season20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record1–09–411–37–66–64–27–69–511–38–50–1
PostseasonW bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#84#88#78#67#73#69#67#91#101#66#73
Style — pass rate
Pass rate45.545.243.142.539.647.445.243.141.851.045.9
Coordinators
OCJason CandleBrian WrightBrian WrightBrian WrightBrian WrightMichael (Mike) Hallett / Robert WeinerMichael (Mike) Hallett / Robert WeinerMichael (Mike) Hallett / Robert WeinerMichael (Mike) Hallett / Robert WeinerMichael (Mike) Hallett / Robert WeinerMichael (Mike) Hallett / Robert Weiner
DCJon HeacockBrian GeorgeBrian GeorgeBrian GeorgeBrian GeorgeVince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig KuligowskiVince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig KuligowskiVince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig KuligowskiVince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig KuligowskiVince Kehres / Ross WatsonVince Kehres / Ross Watson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8193876649699645861872
Defense885244237749080768599
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%35.037.538.937.533.038.043.440.433.342.543.8
Red-zone pass%34.245.029.243.031.747.132.938.744.048.133.0
4th-down go%opp. territory30.626.522.430.845.050.029.547.641.748.038.2
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
42
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
57
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-15
#142 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 240 lbs
across 33 of 42 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.1 lbs
#95 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#215 of 255 · less than most
Top states: OH (9), FL (7), IN (3), MI (3), IL (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.5
position-weighted
Net
-3.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tucker Gleason (QB) from Georgia Tech
Biggest loss: Dequan Finn (QB) to Baylor
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Brian Wright → co-Michael (Mike) Hallett / co-Robert Weiner · 2020the offense improved
57th pct82nd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 35.3% → 40.7% (+5.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brian George → Vince Kehres / co-Ross Watson / co-Craig Kuligowski · 2020the defense leveled up
15th pct82nd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
221 lbs
6′3″ avg · #153 of 767 · more than most
Running back
205 lbs
5′11″ avg · #475 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
191 lbs
5′11″ avg · #498 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
247 lbs
6′5″ avg · #299 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
300 lbs
6′4″ avg · #686 of 779 · less than most
D-line
282 lbs
6′3″ avg · #433 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
233 lbs
6′2″ avg · #200 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
185 lbs
5′11″ avg · #611 of 771 · less than most
Safety
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #178 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
75%
#49 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
82%
#154 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Temple 32–17 Marmot Boca Raton Bowl2016: Lost to App State 28–31 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2017: Lost to App State 0–34 Dollar General Bowl2018: Lost to Florida International 32–35 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl2021: Lost to Middle Tennessee 24–31 Bahamas Bowl2022: Beat Liberty 21–19 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl2023: Lost to Wyoming 15–16 Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl2024: Beat Pittsburgh 48–46 GameAbove Sports Bowl2025: Lost to Louisville 22–27 Bush's Boca Raton Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: Kareem Hunt (2017), Michael Roberts (2017), Treyvon Hester (2017), Logan Woodside (2018), Diontae Johnson (2019), Ka'dar Hollman (2019), Tycen Anderson (2022), Samuel Womack (2022) + 5 more

Coach of the Year: MAC Coach of the Year (2023)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Quinyon Mitchell (2023), Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren (2025)

AI Narratives — “Toledo's Four-Game Win Streak” and 5 more on the team page.

81–44