The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Dave Doeren

Followed Tom O'Brien. Dave Doeren moved NC State from National Program II to National Program I in 14 seasons.

The builder
118–74
2011–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

In any game, winning the line of scrimmage and the turnover margin are two things that are paramount, and we did not get it done today, and that’s on me
Technician · · the day after NC State's 2026 opener
With that being said, I’m sick of being second
Technician

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Northern Illinois, 2 seasons
+6.0
National Program III → National Program III.
NC State, 14 seasons (active)
+3.5
National Program II → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%NC State2013–2026– 0.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
NC State11.9pt#95 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

13–6 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Jimbo Fisher.

Rivalry record
13–6
68.4% · 4 rivals
One-score games
34–22
60.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$13,129,456
bigger than 63% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Toledo1–0100%
Ball State1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Jimbo Fisher0–5
5 meetings, 2013–2018
’13 L’14 L · blew a 17-pt lead’15 L · blew a 10-pt lead’16 L · blew a 10-pt lead’18 L · blew a 6-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
3–9 25.0%
Power Program
8–23 25.8%
National Program
34–21 61.8%
Regional Program
44–14 75.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.01
#144 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.04
#125 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–now
NC Statecaretaker
National Program II → National Program I
Dave Doeren moved NC State from National Program II to National Program I in 14 seasons.

4th-best NC State tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-2.7 pts
#124 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-0.1 pts
#103 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tom O'Brien (2007–2012).

Season20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–98–57–67–69–49–44–88–49–38–59–46–78–50–0
PostseasonW bowlCFP lossW bowlW CFPCFP lossL bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#34#31#50#53#26#31#41#34#64#43#27#34#49
Style — pass rate
Pass rate42.943.346.549.350.352.648.054.451.644.248.249.442.5
Coordinators
OCMatt CanadaMatt CanadaEliah DrinkwitzEliah DrinkwitzEliah DrinkwitzGeorge McDonald / Desmond KitchingsGeorge McDonald / Tim BeckTim BeckTim BeckRobert AnaeRobert AnaeKurt RoperKurt Roper
DCDave HuxtableDave HuxtableDave HuxtableDave HuxtableTed Roof / Dave HuxtableTony Gibson / Dave HuxtableTony GibsonTony GibsonTony GibsonTony GibsonTony GibsonCharlton Warren / D. J. EliotCharlton Warren / D. J. Eliot
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8065428557848651646777815
Defense54488255282154918278264744
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%45.339.940.444.445.547.143.347.846.544.846.938.731.2
Red-zone pass%43.736.826.436.140.738.435.254.247.144.942.243.48.3
4th-down go%opp. territory17.937.238.144.427.531.617.115.226.420.526.238.5
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
65
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
95
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-30
#115 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Hollywood Smothers On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 236 lbs
across 51 of 65 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.4 lbs
#81 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#124 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: NC (9), FL (7), TX (5), GA (4), VA (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
62.4
position-weighted
Net
-3.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Brennan Armstrong (QB) from Virginia
Biggest loss: Devin Leary (QB) to Kentucky
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Matt Canada → Eliah Drinkwitz · 2016the system held
73rd pct63rd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 42.6% → 42.4% (-0.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 56% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Eliah Drinkwitz → co-George McDonald / co-Desmond Kitchings · 2019
57th pct8th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.5% → 47.1% (+1.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 13% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-George McDonald / co-Desmond Kitchings → co-George McDonald / Tim Beck · 2020
8th pct48th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.1% → 43.3% (-3.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 60% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-George McDonald / Tim Beck → Tim Beck · 2021
48th pct65th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.3% → 47.8% (+4.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Tim Beck → Robert Anae · 2023the offense improved
41st pct62nd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 47.2% → 45.8% (-1.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 38% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Robert Anae → Kurt Roper · 2025the offense slipped
62nd pct46th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 45.8% → 35.0% (-10.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 95% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Dave Huxtable → co-Ted Roof / co-Dave Huxtable · 2018
55th pct28th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Ted Roof / co-Dave Huxtable → co-Tony Gibson / co-Dave Huxtable · 2019
28th pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Tony Gibson / co-Dave Huxtable → Tony Gibson · 2020
21st pct54th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
210 lbs
6′3″ avg · #453 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
207 lbs
5′11″ avg · #410 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
198 lbs
6′1″ avg · #175 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
244 lbs
6′4″ avg · #433 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
310 lbs
6′4″ avg · #327 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
292 lbs
6′3″ avg · #221 of 753 · a typical amount
Edge
280 lbs
6′3″ avg · #5 of 188 · more than most
Linebacker
223 lbs
6′2″ avg · #640 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #350 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #190 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows LS from high school
100%
#12 of 12 stints
Grows K from high school
80%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat UCF 34–27 Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl2015: Lost to Mississippi State 28–51 CFP2016: Beat Vanderbilt 41–17 Camping World Independence Bowl2017: Beat Arizona State 52–31 CFP2018: Lost to Texas A&M 13–52 CFP2020: Lost to Kentucky 21–23 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2022: Lost to Maryland 12–16 Duke's Mayo Bowl2023: Lost to Kansas State 19–28 Pop-Tarts Bowl2024: Lost to East Carolina 21–26 Go Bowling Military Bowl2025: Beat Memphis 31–7 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

32 NFL Draft picks: David Amerson (2013), Mike Glennon (2013), Earl Wolff (2013), Dontae Johnson (2014), Joe Thuney (2016), Jacoby Brissett (2016), Juston Burris (2016), Josh Jones (2017) + 24 more

5 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Alim McNeill (2020), Zonovan Knight (2021), Ikem Ekwonu (2021), Christopher Dunn (2022), Payton Wilson (2023)

AI Narratives — “NC State's Final Surge” and 4 more on the team page.

95–70
2011–2012
Northern Illinoiscaretaker
Regional Program I → National Program III
Dave Doeren moved Northern Illinois from Regional Program I to National Program III in 2 seasons.

2nd-best Northern Illinois tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Jerry Kill (2008–2010).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Chandler Harnish (2012)

23–4