Dave Doeren
Followed Tom O'Brien. Dave Doeren moved NC State from National Program II to National Program I in 14 seasons.
In his own words
In any game, winning the line of scrimmage and the turnover margin are two things that are paramount, and we did not get it done today, and that’s on me
With that being said, I’m sick of being second
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
13–6 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Jimbo Fisher.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
4th-best NC State tenure of 15 by the numbers.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Tom O'Brien (2007–2012).
| Season | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||||||||||
| Record | 3–9 | 8–5 | 7–6 | 7–6 | 9–4 | 9–4 | 4–8 | 8–4 | 9–3 | 8–5 | 9–4 | 6–7 | 8–5 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | CFP loss | W bowl | W CFP | CFP loss | — | L bowl | — | L bowl | L bowl | L bowl | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | #34 | #31 | #50 | #53 | #26 | #31 | #41 | #34 | #64 | #43 | #27 | #34 | #49 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||||||||||
| Pass rate | — | 42.9 | 43.3 | 46.5 | 49.3 | 50.3 | 52.6 | 48.0 | 54.4 | 51.6 | 44.2 | 48.2 | 49.4 | 42.5 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||||||||||
| OC | — | Matt Canada | Matt Canada | Eliah Drinkwitz | Eliah Drinkwitz | Eliah Drinkwitz | George McDonald / Desmond Kitchings | George McDonald / Tim Beck | Tim Beck | Tim Beck | Robert Anae | Robert Anae | Kurt Roper | Kurt Roper | |
| DC | — | Dave Huxtable | Dave Huxtable | Dave Huxtable | Dave Huxtable | Ted Roof / Dave Huxtable | Tony Gibson / Dave Huxtable | Tony Gibson | Tony Gibson | Tony Gibson | Tony Gibson | Tony Gibson | Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot | Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||||||||||
| Offense | — | 80 | 65 | 42 | 85 | 57 | 8 | 48 | 65 | 16 | 46 | 77 | 78 | 15 | |
| Defense | — | 54 | 48 | 82 | 55 | 28 | 21 | 54 | 91 | 82 | 78 | 26 | 47 | 44 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | 45.3 | 39.9 | 40.4 | 44.4 | 45.5 | 47.1 | 43.3 | 47.8 | 46.5 | 44.8 | 46.9 | 38.7 | 31.2 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | 43.7 | 36.8 | 26.4 | 36.1 | 40.7 | 38.4 | 35.2 | 54.2 | 47.1 | 44.9 | 42.2 | 43.4 | 8.3 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | 17.9 | 37.2 | 38.1 | 44.4 | 27.5 | 31.6 | 17.1 | 15.2 | 26.4 | 20.5 | 26.2 | 38.5 | — | |
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
32 NFL Draft picks: David Amerson (2013), Mike Glennon (2013), Earl Wolff (2013), Dontae Johnson (2014), Joe Thuney (2016), Jacoby Brissett (2016), Juston Burris (2016), Josh Jones (2017) + 24 more
5 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Alim McNeill (2020), Zonovan Knight (2021), Ikem Ekwonu (2021), Christopher Dunn (2022), Payton Wilson (2023)
AI Narratives — “NC State's Final Surge” and 4 more on the team page.
2nd-best Northern Illinois tenure of 13 by the numbers.
Followed Jerry Kill (2008–2010).
1 NFL Draft pick: Chandler Harnish (2012)