The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Lehigh 24%, Villanova 26%
Win out 5% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Richmond Spiders's chance to win each game left, from our model: Villanova 26%, Lehigh 24%, William & Mary 78%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Ashten Snelsire 1,562 · Rushing Aziz Foster-Powell 671 · Receiving Bryce Allen 381 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Bucknell | W 35-14 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Snelsire 199 · Rush Foster-Powell 108 · Rec Allen 106 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Howard | W 28-21 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Snelsire 261 · Rush Brown 36 · Rec Clarke 80 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | @NC State | L 0-73 118 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Snelsire 76 · Rush Stephenson 58 · Rec Creamer 23 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Georgetown | W 24-21 | 3-1 | 2-0 | Pass Snelsire 322 · Rush Foster-Powell 87 · Rec Allen 78 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Furman | W 13-9 | 4-1 | 2-0 | Pass Snelsire 167 · Rush Foster-Powell 125 · Rec Hill 38 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Lafayette | W 40-31 | 5-1 | 3-0 | Pass Snelsire 218 · Rush Foster-Powell 113 · Rec Derey 61 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Fordham | L 14-20 | 5-2 | 3-1 | Pass Snelsire 122 · Rush Foster-Powell 68 · Rec Clarke 34 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Colgate | W 13-6 | 6-2 | 4-1 | Pass Snelsire 116 · Rush Foster-Powell 80 · Rec Fair 49 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Holy Cross | L 14-33 | 6-3 | 4-2 | Pass Snelsire 81 · Rush Foster-Powell 57 · Rec Hill 38 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Villanova | 1 pm ET26% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Lehigh | 2 pm ET24% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | William & Mary | 12 pm ET78% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Richmond Spiders, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Holy Cross | L 14-33 | — | — | — | −0.078 | 32.0% | 1.10 | |
| Oct 24 | Colgate | W 13-6 | — | — | — | −0.026 | 24.5% | 1.72 | Most explosive |
| Oct 10 | @Fordham | L 14-20 | — | — | — | −0.149 | 31.7% | 1.00 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | @Lafayette | W 40-31 | — | — | — | +0.118 | 51.1% | 0.89 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | Furman | W 13-9 | — | — | — | −0.133 | 47.4% | 0.98 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | Georgetown | W 24-21 | — | — | — | +0.228 | 43.6% | 1.18 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 11 | @NC State | L 0-73 | 110 | 2 | 22:17 | −0.377 | 25.5% | 1.09 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Howard | W 28-21 | — | — | — | +0.004 | 34.8% | 1.38 | One-score win |
| Aug 29 | Bucknell | W 35-14 | — | — | — | +0.194 | 41.0% | 1.38 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 110 | 2.0 | −0.024 | 36.9% | 1.19 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Richmond Spiders · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 12%; 7 wins 53%; 8 wins 30%; 9 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-3
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Patriot teams the same season
The Virginia power returning to regional alignment after 17 years, reuniting with old rivals in a new conference home.
The Virginia power returning to regional alignment after 17 years, reuniting with old rivals in a new conference home.
Range of outcomes · Richmond Spiders · 2026