The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Richmond 22%, Lafayette 46%, Bucknell 63%
Win out 6% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
William & Mary's chance to win each game left, from our model: Lafayette 46%, Bucknell 63%, Richmond 22%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Winston Watkins 1,443 · Rushing Andrew King 546 · Receiving Khylil Johnson 475 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | @Villanova | W 35-32 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Watkins 254 · Rush Watkins 72 · Rec Austin 76 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Delaware State | W 22-15 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Watkins 95 · Rush King 73 · Rec Johnson 83 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Lehigh | L 20-44 | 2-1 | 1-1 | Pass Watkins 164 · Rush King 78 · Rec Austin 82 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Fordham | L 27-52 | 2-2 | 1-2 | Pass Watkins 286 · Rush King 122 · Rec Austin 81 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Duke | L 7-62 121 | 2-3 | 1-2 | Pass Watkins 137 · Rush Miller 25 · Rec Johnson 92 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Holy Cross | L 14-41 | 2-4 | 1-3 | Pass Watkins 210 · Rush King 25 · Rec Johnson 82 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @North Carolina Central | W 17-14 | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Watkins 106 · Rush Chavis 70 · Rec Honesty 68 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Georgetown | L 27-28 | 3-5 | 1-4 | Pass Watkins 149 · Rush King 96 · Rec Johnson 70 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Colgate | L 0-37 | 3-6 | 1-5 | Pass Watkins 42 · Rush King 71 · Rec Honesty 24 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Lafayette | 1 pm ET46% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Bucknell | 1 pm ET63% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Richmond | 12 pm ET22% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for William & Mary, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Colgate | L 0-37 | — | — | — | −0.312 | 36.4% | 0.75 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Georgetown | L 27-28 | — | — | — | −0.084 | 40.0% | 1.16 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @North Carolina Central | W 17-14 | — | — | — | −0.154 | 25.4% | 1.25 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | Holy Cross | L 14-41 | — | — | — | −0.241 | 32.3% | 1.26 | |
| Sep 26 | @Duke | L 7-62 | 170 | 0 | 27:40 | −0.078 | 22.0% | 1.49 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | Fordham | L 27-52 | — | — | — | +0.145 | 47.8% | 1.41 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Lehigh | L 20-44 | — | — | — | −0.004 | 42.1% | 0.97 | |
| Sep 5 | Delaware State | W 22-15 | — | — | — | −0.281 | 26.8% | 1.12 | One-score win |
| Aug 28 | @Villanova | W 35-32 | — | — | — | +0.107 | 35.9% | 1.39 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 170 | 0.0 | −0.100 | 34.3% | 1.20 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · William & Mary · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 16%; 4 wins 44%; 5 wins 34%; 6 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Patriot teams the same season
William & Mary is a 330-year-old institution with a 39-year coaching dynasty, three NFL head coaches, and a return to national prominence that proves the Jimmye Laycock formula still works.
William & Mary Tribe football is one of the nation's oldest power programs—a second-oldest-college pedigree that produced legendary coach Jimmye Laycock, three NFL head coaches, and a consistently winning tradition. Under Mike London, the Tribe has returned to national prominence: ranked No. 10 in 2024 and now moving to the Patriot League for 2026.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · William & Mary · 2026