The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Colgate 9%, William & Mary 37%, Fordham 54%
Win out 2% · expect 1.0 of 3 more wins
Bucknell's chance to win each game left, from our model: Fordham 54%, William & Mary 37%, Colgate 9%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Chris Dietrich 951 · Rushing Michael Cadden 401 · Receiving Sam Milligan 468 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Richmond | L 14-35 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Dietrich 155 · Rush Cadden 24 · Rec Milligan 70 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Villanova | L 16-17 | 0-2 | 0-2 | Pass Dietrich 245 · Rush Cadden 37 · Rec Milligan 135 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @VMI | W 14-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 | Pass Dietrich 221 · Rush Cadden 70 · Rec Lampkins 46 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Pennsylvania | L 7-20 | 1-3 | 0-2 | Pass Dowling 76 · Rush Stauffer 31 · Rec Milligan 43 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Pittsburgh | L 0-59 135 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass Dietrich 56 · Rush Sullivan 31 · Rec Cadden 33 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Georgetown | L 14-21 | 1-5 | 0-3 | Pass Dowling 173 · Rush Cadden 59 · Rec Cadden 77 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Lafayette | L 7-20 | 1-6 | 0-4 | Pass Dietrich 104 · Rush Cadden 62 · Rec Garwood 58 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Holy Cross | L 3-34 | 1-7 | 0-5 | Pass Dietrich 162 · Rush Cadden 102 · Rec Milligan 46 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Lehigh | L 30-31 | 1-8 | 0-6 | Pass Dowling 318 · Rush Sullivan 30 · Rec Milligan 122 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Fordham | 1 pm ET54% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @William & Mary | 1 pm ET37% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Colgate | 1 pm ET9% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Bucknell, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Lehigh | L 30-31 | — | — | — | +0.160 | 42.5% | 1.34 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Holy Cross | L 3-34 | — | — | — | −0.227 | 33.9% | 1.12 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | Lafayette | L 7-20 | — | — | — | +0.006 | 43.9% | 1.16 | |
| Oct 10 | @Georgetown | L 14-21 | — | — | — | +0.050 | 44.9% | 1.11 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @Pittsburgh | L 0-59 | 136 | 0 | 27:26 | −0.198 | 16.7% | 1.35 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | Pennsylvania | L 7-20 | — | — | — | −0.390 | 15.7% | 0.84 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @VMI | W 14-3 | — | — | — | +0.077 | 44.1% | 1.10 | |
| Sep 5 | Villanova | L 16-17 | — | — | — | +0.021 | 37.7% | 1.17 | One-score loss |
| Aug 29 | @Richmond | L 14-35 | — | — | — | +0.040 | 25.8% | 1.76 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 136 | 0.0 | −0.051 | 33.9% | 1.22 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last six.
Range of outcomes · Bucknell · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 26%; 2 wins 49%; 3 wins 23%; 4 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-8
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Patriot teams the same season
Bucknell is 1-8 and hosts Fordham next.
Bucknell is 1-8 and hosts Fordham next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Bucknell · 2026