The rest of the season
One real test left: Colgate 65%
Win out 43% · expect 2.3 of 3 more wins
Lehigh Mountain Hawks's chance to win each game left, from our model: Colgate 65%, Richmond 76%, Lafayette 87%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Derek Morgan 681 · Rushing Luke Yoder 1,271 · Receiving Anthony Feaster 305 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Holy Cross | W 35-10 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Johnson 117 · Rush Yoder 130 · Rec Feaster 32 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Georgetown | W 45-14 | 2-0 | 2-0 | Pass Johnson 271 · Rush Yoder 120 · Rec Feaster 113 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | William & Mary | W 44-20 | 3-0 | 3-0 | Pass Johnson 84 · Rush Yoder 169 · Rec Palumbo 71 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Dartmouth | W 24-20 | 4-0 | 3-0 | Pass Morgan 73 · Rush Yoder 150 · Rec Palumbo 52 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Pennsylvania | W 20-7 | 5-0 | 3-0 | Pass Morgan 49 · Rush Yoder 74 · Rec Harden 25 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Fordham | W 34-0 | 6-0 | 4-0 | Pass Morgan 152 · Rush Yoder 171 · Rec Feaster 67 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Cornell | L 38-48 | 6-1 | 4-0 | Pass Morgan 204 · Rush Yoder 142 · Rec Werner 62 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Villanova | L 18-24 | 6-2 | 4-1 | Pass Morgan 134 · Rush Yoder 132 · Rec Werner 45 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Bucknell | W 31-30 | 7-2 | 5-1 | Pass Coan 46 · Rush Yoder 183 · Rec D'Avino 34 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Colgate | 12 pm ET65% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Richmond | 2 pm ET76% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Lafayette | 12:30 pm ET87% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Lehigh Mountain Hawks, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Bucknell | W 31-30 | — | — | — | +0.204 | 50.0% | 0.88 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Villanova | L 18-24 | — | — | — | +0.097 | 43.4% | 1.08 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Cornell | L 38-48 | — | — | — | +0.431 | 41.8% | 1.80 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | Fordham | W 34-0 | — | — | — | +0.207 | 38.3% | 1.60 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | @Pennsylvania | W 20-7 | — | — | — | −0.173 | 34.4% | 0.76 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Dartmouth | W 24-20 | — | — | — | +0.260 | 55.7% | 0.76 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | William & Mary | W 44-20 | — | — | — | +0.440 | 52.5% | 1.43 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Georgetown | W 45-14 | — | — | — | +0.414 | 62.2% | 1.02 | Best success rate |
| Aug 29 | @Holy Cross | W 35-10 | — | — | — | +0.376 | 49.2% | 1.32 | |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.251 | 47.5% | 1.18 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Lehigh Mountain Hawks · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 1%; 8 wins 13%; 9 wins 43%; 10 wins 43%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Patriot teams the same season
The half of The Rivalry that was born behind but is now leading, the mountain program that climbed.
The half of The Rivalry that was born behind but is now leading, the mountain program that climbed.
Range of outcomes · Lehigh Mountain Hawks · 2026