Villanova upsets Lehigh 24-18
Villanova beat Lehigh 24-18 as a 6.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had Lehigh favored. Villanova won.
Next: Lehigh vs Bucknell, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET
Next: Villanova at Lafayette, Sat Oct 31 · 12:30 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Morgan sacked for a 8-yd loss (Q4, 0:29). Villanova went from 52% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Villanova a 17% chance, and the closing betting line (Villanova was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.
Villanova 24-18 Lehigh
Villanova wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Lehigh 18-24 VillanovaLehigh lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:00Morgan 5-yd pass to YoderVillanova 57% → 73% (+16)
- 2Q4 0:29Morgan sacked for a 8-yd lossVillanova 52% → 100% (+48)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:00Morgan 5-yd pass to YoderLehigh 43% → 27% (−16)
- 2Q4 0:29Morgan sacked for a 8-yd lossLehigh 48% → 0% (−48)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Lehigh -6.5), at 37% for Villanova (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Villanova scored on 4 of its 9 drives; Lehigh on 3 of its 9.
Villanova’s drives are teal, Lehigh’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Lehigh’s side
Lehigh’s best moment: Morgan 8-yd pass to Werner (Q4 0:29). It lifted Lehigh’s win chance by 13 points.
Box score
Villanova 24, Lehigh 18
Villanova covered +6.5 by 12.5. The total, 42, stayed under 49.5.
Lehigh leaders
- Passing Derek Morgan 17 of 33, 134 yds
- Rushing Luke Yoder 20 for 132 yds, 1 TD; Derek Morgan 17 for 94 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Bryce Werner 5 for 45 yds; Matt D'Avino 2 for 22 yds
Villanova leaders
- Passing Pat McQuaide 15 of 25, 194 yds
- Rushing Ja'briel Mace 17 for 91 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Ragland 10 for 44 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Brandon Binkowski 5 for 60 yds; Jake Hilton 5 for 54 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Lehigh · 6-1
Rated 140th in our preseason ratings, 129th now, up 11 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 38-48 @ Cornell No. 197 of 668 teams
lost by 10 as an 11.5-point favorite
W 34-0 vs Fordham No. 247 of 668 teams
won by 34 as a 22.5-point favorite
W 20-7 @ Pennsylvania No. 233 of 668 teams
won by 13 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 24-20 vs Dartmouth No. 246 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 45-14 @ Georgetown No. 258 of 668 teams
won by 31 as a 22.5-point favorite
W 35-10 @ Holy Cross No. 209 of 668 teams
won by 25 as a 14-point favorite
Last three games
Villanova · 3-4
Rated 137th in our preseason ratings, 182nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 21-28 vs Colgate No. 159 of 668 teams
lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite
Week by week
Villanova
- Wk 2Lat Louisville13-59
- Wk 3Wat Long Island University20-16
- Wk 4Lvs Colgate21-28
- Wk 5Lvs Morgan State35-38
- Wk 7Wat Fordham38-17
Lehigh
- Wk 2Wvs William & Mary44-20
- Wk 3Wvs Dartmouth24-20
- Wk 4Wat Pennsylvania20-7
- Wk 5Wvs Fordham34-0
- Wk 7Lat Cornell38-48
Power rating by week
Lehigh is rated 3.5 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Villanova leads the series 13-4
17 meetings since 1903 · Villanova has won the last 12
- 2025Villanova 14-7
- 2023Villanova 38-10
- 2022Villanova 45-17
- 2021Villanova 47-3
- 2019Villanova 38-10
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Villanova’s chances here.
Lehigh favored by 6.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Lehigh by 6.5, on the usual path until 0:29 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Villanova is worth +6.3 points (±12.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 86th percentile.
75% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (3-1 home, 5-7 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.7 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 38 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.